Apophenia as an apologist for clairvoyance in the capital markets. - page 9
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USGDP calculated in Japanese Yen (JPY).
An analysis of the GDP trend graph, which is based on the values calculated in JPY, shows a fractal structure.
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US GDP calculated in Russian roubles (RUB).
Analysis of the GDP trend graph, which is based on values calculated in Russian roubles, shows the presence of a fractal structure, indicating a huge potential for the strengthening of the rouble against the US dollar.
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The fractal structure of the GDP chart has to be analysed not only through the prism of exchange rates, but also through the prism of the quotations of particularly important financial assets, e.g. gold and oil.
Gold and oil are the basic values in the world. The dynamics of their value determine the dynamics of everything else in the world economy.
By analysing the fractal structure of US GDP measured in troy ounces of gold and barrels of oil you can determine the future dynamics of this macroeconomic indicator.
US GDP in troy ounces (XAU).
An analysis of the graph concerning GDP calculated in troy ounces shows the presence of a fractal structure which indicates a continuing downward trend in the indicator.
The fall of the indicator to all-time lows will take place within the framework of a blue fractal, which is the third segment in a higher-order red fractal, due to the rise in the value of gold.
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GDP in barrels (Brent).
The analysis of the graph of the dynamics of GDP, which is plotted on the basis of the values calculated in barrels of Brent oil, shows the existence of a fractal structure that initially points to the decrease of the index within the framework of the formation of the red fractal and then to the growth of the index within the framework of the olive fractal, which is of higher order and in which the fractal marked in red is the second segment.
In general, the dynamics of this indicator will be set by the downtrend in oil quotations against the background of the crisis phenomena in the world economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic which will start in 2019.
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The US share of world GDP.
The development of the indicator is in a downward trend. The US share of world GDP has fallen by a factor of 2.5 since 1960, falling from 50% to just under 20%.
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Analysis of the fractal structure indicates that the declining trend has ended in 2011 within the completion of the red fractal, which is also the third segment in a higher fractal, marked in blue, and is still showing a sideways trend within the formation of the green fractal.
The UK's share of world GDP.
Since 1961, the UK's share of world GDP has been on a steady long-term downward trend, falling from 6.5% to 3.2%.
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By analysing the fractal structure of the graph, it can be seen that the indicator will continue to exhibit a downward trend as long as the fractal marked in blue has not ended.
The third segment of the blue fractal is at the end of its first segment, marked in green, which will end in the form of a red fractal after which a second segment of the green fractal will be formed in a sideways trend.
The indicator for the ratio of US GDP to Chinese GDP.
The evolution of the indicator is in a steady downward trend. Whilst in 1987 US GDP was 17.8 times the Chinese GDP, in 2020 US GDP exceeds Chinese GDP by a factor of 1.3 and it is likely that the indicator will move further downwards towards 0.5.
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The analysis of the fractal structure shows that the index trend was increasing between 1960 and 1981 from 9.1 to 16.4 in the formation of a fractal, which is marked in green, after which the trend began to show a downward trend in the formation of a fractal, which is marked in red, from 1981 to 2011. The formed red fractal can be considered the 1st segment of a larger fractal, and the current dynamics of the indicator can be considered within the framework of the formation in the fractal structure of its 3rd segment.
A measure of the ratio of US GDP to India's GDP.
The indicator trended upwards from 12.1 to 24.6 between 1964 and 1993. Over a period of almost 30 years in this time interval, the indicator doubled within the formation of a fractal, which is marked in green. In 1993, US GDP was 24.6 times that of India, but in 2020, US GDP is only 8 times that of India.
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Analysis of the fractal structure of the graph shows that the downward trend of the indicator from 1993 to 2017 has taken place in the formation of a fractal, which is marked in blue, in which its 1st segment is marked by a lower-order fractal marked in red. If we assume that the 3rd segment of the blue fractal was formed between 2008 and 2017, then the following dynamics will take place within the framework of the formation of the fractal which is the 2nd segment in relation to the blue fractal.
A measure of the ratio of US GDP to Brazilian GDP.
The trend of the indicator is in a global downward trend. In 1961, the US GDP was 37 times that of Brazil, but already in 2011 it was 6 times that of Brazil. In 2020, the GDP of the USA is 15 times that of Brazil.
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Analysis of the fractal structure of the graph shows that the downward trend of the index since 1961 is within the framework of the formation of a fractal, which is marked in blue. The 1st segment of the blue fractal is a lower order fractal marked in red in the time interval 1961-1997. The 2nd segment of the blue fractal was formed in the time frame 1997-2002. Now the index dynamics is in an uptrend within the formation of the 3rd segment of the blue fractal, which is the 2nd segment of the green fractal, which in turn is the 3rd segment of the blue fractal.
Knowledge of the fractal structure of a financial instrument chart enables us to simulate the future dynamics of its value based on which fractal segment is formed on the chart.
In order to determine the fractal structure of the chart of a financial instrument more precisely, a fractal analysis of the charts of adjacent financial instruments, which make up one market, as well as of financial instruments, representing other markets, and fractal analysis of the charts of their cross rates is required.
For example, analysis of the fractal structure of the Gold chart should be supplemented by the fractal analysis of the Silver chart and of the cross rate chart between Gold and Silver. In addition, it is necessary to analyze other precious metals' charts and their cross rates with Gold.
Another example, analysis of the fractal structure of the EUR/USD chart must be supplemented by fractal analysis of charts of GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CHF/USD, CAD/USD, JPY/USD and of charts of EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/JPY cross rates. In addition, the charts of other currencies and their cross rates must be analysed.
If we divide the price of Gold by the price of Silver, we obtain the values which we transform into a fractal structure, the time intervals of which correlate with the time intervals of the fractals on the Gold and Silver price charts.