Apophenia as an apologist for clairvoyance in the capital markets. - page 20

 
Aleksandr Volotko #:

Personally, I think you're wrong.

The topikstarter was at that peak about 10 years ago, and now he's just ducking those who are climbing that peak.

Did you see what a proper monetisation scheme he did? ) It is the fools, who climb that peak, claw the signals and take the risk of losses at least.

And a wise guy sells the pictures.

There is no risk.

No risk at all.

You're probably right. Adding a hint of America's imminent collapse indicates good ad targeting.)

 
Aleksey Nikolayev #:

You're probably right. Adding hints of America's imminent collapse\dollar suggests good targeting of advertising)

Aleksandr Volotko#:

Personally, I think you're wrong.

The topikstarter was at that peak just about 10 years ago, and now he's just duking it out for those climbing that peak.

Did you see what a proper monetisation scheme he did? ) It is the fools, who climb that peak, claw the signals and take the risk of losses at least.

And a wise guy sells the pictures.

There is no risk.

No risk at all.


Your version is not excluded, because he really is trying to sell the charts for 100 rubles, plus perhaps some kopecks from advertising, but I still think that he believes in all this crap and most likely his primary motivation is much simpler - a banal thirst for fame ...

Indicative of that is the specific fanatical nature of the writing and elements like Niroba's alphabet (😆) and religion, and jealousy of Anglo-Saxons is probably his own...

Also, a truly cunning miracle salesman would not make such a gaffe as predicting until the end of the month on the hourly chart, as it would be easy to check and verify the "quality" of the prediction. (https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/383410/page17#comment_27037089)

 

As of January 13, 2022, the 3rd segment of the fractal, which is marked in red on the chart with the time-frame of 1 hour, is being formed in the fractal structure on the Dow Jones index.

Considering higher order fractal structures, the most probable scenario is the decrease of the index values within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of the red fractal, which is marked as 3''.


DJ_1h-2022.01.12


 
Andrey Niroba #:

As of January 13, 2022, the 3rd segment of the fractal, which is marked in red on the chart with the time-frame of 1 hour, is being formed in the fractal structure on the Dow Jones index.

Considering higher order fractal structures, the most probable scenario is the decrease of the index values within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of the red fractal, which is marked as 3''.




Fractal is an Absolute Lagging Indicator
 
Andrey Niroba #:

As of January 13, 2022, the 3rd segment of the fractal, which is marked in red on the chart with the time-frame of 1 hour, is being formed in the fractal structure on the Dow Jones index.

Considering higher fractal structures, the most probable scenario is that the index will decrease within the framework of the formation of the 3rd segment of the red fractal, which is marked as 3''.




This prediction will come true. Chances are good that it will.

 
Andrey Niroba #:

Sorry, any optimistic predictions on what to buy?

 

I will start by saying that it is human nature to be wrong.


There are of course "optimistic" predictions, they simply cannot not be.

In a non-linear dynamic system, there are always several degrees of freedom at any given time.

There can never be one single correct model of development of the fractal structure of a graph of the dynamics of a financial asset.


The models of future dynamics of the Dow Jones index presented by me in fractal structures of various orders are not the only one; there are other, alternative models.

The future trend models I present here have a higher probability of realization than other models.

I would also like to add that any model of future value dynamics in the financial market is up-to-date as of the date of its preparation and may require adjustments in the value and time intervals of future fractal segments in accordance with the development of local fine-order fractal structures.


In accordance with the global attractor of Dow Jones index the forthcoming dynamics of values will take place within the framework of the formation of the 5th order fractal F13332, which has a negative fractal structure, i.e. it is directed downwards. This fact does not mean that there is no possibility of making profitable investments in the USA stock market by buying American stocks.

Given the emerging global fractal structure on the chart index Dow Jones Buying should be done after the completion of the negative local fractal structures 1-st segment fractals in the direction of the 2-nd segment, and after the completion of the 3-rd segment fractals in the direction of development 1-st segment fractals positively directed local fractal structures.


In general, buy those financial assets on the charts which formed a positive global fractal structure, and sell the need, respectively, those financial assets on the charts which formed the value dynamics of global negative fractal structures. Well, the investment horizon will show what order the local fractal structures to choose for analysis.


One can compare the development of fractal structures of the charts of financial assets values, which is carried out according to certain rules, with the development of any game with certain rules, like Go.

If an observer of Go game doesn't know the rules of the game, then it is impossible to understand what is going on at the game board.

The modelling method I propose is the "rules of the game", the knowledge of which allows you to understand the dynamics of the financial market.


You cannot believe in the rules, you have to know the rules. Only an idiot would think that those who play chess believe in the rules of the game.

Anyone who sees a chessboard and chess pieces for the first time and does not know the rules of chess, watching two grandmasters play, will find everything very boring, incomprehensible and without any sense in the seemingly chaotic movements of black and white pieces on a checkered black and white board, which is unclear to him for some reason.

However, for someone who knows the rules of chess and knows how to play, watching two grandmasters will be a great pleasure. Anyone who understands the tactics and strategy of the game will be able to predict the grandmasters' moves not only one, but also two or three moves ahead. Of course, neither at the beginning of the game nor in the middle of the game can one guess the outcome of the game and how many pieces will remain on the board and in which square, it is a question of understanding what is happening on the chessboard, which is provided by knowledge of the game rules.


If someone doesn't like my proposed "rules of the game", I see nothing wrong with that. Give me other "rules of the game" and I will gladly accept them, if their validity proves to be higher.


Well, I will finish with the following addition to the good Russian proverb "An old horse does not spoil a furrow" - "Dirt under the ploughman's fingernails does not spoil a furrow".


 
Non-linearity has nothing, ever and nowhere to do with the number of degrees of freedom.
 

Yes, and I would also highly recommend reading Ivan Andreevich Krylov's fable "The Monkey and the Glasses".

 
Andrey Niroba #:


The models of future dynamics I present here have a higher probability of being realised than the other models.


Any statistics?