Random wandering - page 41

 
Uladzimir Izerski #:

Excuse me?

So according to you the coin will fall out one side all the time and the graph will go the fuck away from the x-axis?

I would first find out what the terms you use mean. How "equal probability" is different from "uniform", for example. and what a "distribution" is.

When one conducts a discussion, one usually assumes that the participants are not using their "naive" ideas of terms, but in strict accordance with accepted definitions.

 
vladavd #:

I've read about ZBF, well done, it's getting very big. What's left to do is to explain how it makes it possible to predict specific endpoints of a random graph, and not just its average in huge samples. We're not trading the average in a vacuum, we're trading the sum of the increments, don't you see the difference? We don't live indefinitely and don't have an infinite deposit for the law of large numbers to ever wait for a chart to make a profit at random.

The question has been posed: is it possible to predict the graph of a coin? All your naive drawings - trends, wave channels on SB chart, it's all for naught, there are no stable formations on such a chart by definition, the fact that you draw them retroactively means nothing, these constructions have no predictive ability at all on a random chart. I very much doubt that with the level of knowledge you demonstrate you have anything working in the market, but on a number of SB's all this nonsense will unequivocally not start. This would have been known to you with basic knowledge, or you could have personally tested it in practice and verified that the theory is correct, but since you continue to confidently spout illiterate nonsense, it is absolutely clear that you have neither theory nor practice at your fingertips.

You are like a living illustration of the phenomenon of kargo cults, in which the dormant natives are trying to imitate some external forms with a total lack of understanding of the essence and physics of the process. You mumble terms with unclear meaning, hoping that they will work on others as a spell, but it is unlikely, but you just show what a total ignoramus who does not even know the curriculum.


I haven't read any ZBZ. Toothpicks don't troll me here).

I'll explain again for the unwritten.

A series of equal sign throws can be thought of as a bar in the financial markets formed of equal ticks. A bar can be bullish or bearish. It's the same in coins.

It is possible to spread the whole thing out on an X-axis line and see such a result. The line can stretch for kilometres, but the price won't run away from it.

Think of each bar as a series of coin toss results. And I don't have to flip a coin 100500 times to draw a chart.

The law of charts is the same for everyone. You can predict the future from historical data. Yusuf is trying to achieve this. He sees that it is possible, but has not found the right approach.

This chart is drawn at the opening of a bar and does not redraw over time.

You ask,"Can a coin chart be predicted?" You can!!!

Here's my naive drawing)))) I'll delete it in an hour. People don't like my pictures.


Picture deleted.


As long as the picture is hanging here, you can calculate the probability of guessing.

Everyone here is a physicist and a mathematician)))

 
Mikhail Dovbakh #:

I would first find out what the terms you use mean. What is the difference between "equal probability" and "equal", for example. and what is a "distribution".

When one conducts a discussion, one usually assumes that the participants are not using their "naive" ideas of terms, but in strict accordance with accepted definitions.

I am not in the business of scientifically explaining simple truths. I am neither a physicist nor a mathematician. I have explained it on my fingers.

I think now there will only be picking on words and not on the meaning of understanding the issue.

Shame on you for not understanding such simple questions, not me an old man who has not learned the clever right words.

 
Uladzimir Izerski #:

The law of charts is the same for everyone. You can predict the future from historical data. Yusuf is trying to achieve this. He sees that it is possible, but has not found the right approach.

This chart is drawn at the opening of a bar and does not redraw over time.

You ask,"Can a coin chart be predicted?" You can!!!

...

I am not in the business of scientifically explaining simple truths. I'm not a physicist or a mathematician. I explained it to you on my fingers.

I think now there will only be picking on words and not on the meaning of understanding the question.

Shame on you for not understanding such simple questions, not me an old man who has not learned the clever right words.

Sapienti sat

 
Mikhail Dovbakh #:

Sapienti sat

That's good. Go back to your corners.

 
Uladzimir Izerski #:

...

You ask:"Is it possible to predict a coin's graph?" You can!!!

...


Of course you can, no one forbids it. Predict as much as you like. But what's the point? There is no point))

 
I want to summarise a bit. I think forum members agree with Vladimir's suggestion that even though we don't know the true distribution, we can assume a probability of 0.5 for eagle. The point of the argument is not that, but that many disagree that it is possible to construct a predictive model at any stretch of time. Because the variation in the graph will be so great that it will break any prediction. Vladimir, let's have an experiment. Would you be willing to share with us a code or an algorithm that will predict random walk?
 
How can you talk about a coin and cite the Eurodollar price chart as an example? Aren't they different processes?
 
Dmitry Fedoseev #:

Of course you can, no one forbids it. Predict as much as you like.

I did not ask your permission to predict

====

At least be mindful of picking on words).

Dovbach was picking on me and you're not watching your words here.

 
Теперь вариант №2 When the probability of an entire sequence of events or the behaviour of system elements has no effect on the outcome of another attempt.

Let's say you flip a coin ten times and all ten times you get tails. What can't happen in life, right?! You flip for the 11th time. Question: what is the probability that it will be tails again?

The correct answer (which I didn't think of myself at the time, I'll be honest) is 0.5! Although I really want to say 0.5 to the power of 11, i.e. 0.00049.

The point is that the coin "does not know" how it fell in the previous "times". There are only 2 possibilities for it in each individual attempt, and the probability of each is 0.5.
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