Random wandering - page 50
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Your charts are wrong. These are Surgeon General's charts. They're in no way relevant to the subject of the coin.
Charts of who? What is this nonsense?
... Let's do this. Take 20,000 flips of a coin. How many eagles and how many tails do you think will come out of those flips?
Don't be precise, approximate.
19,000 to 1,000? So that the graph doesn't go where I've been telling you all day.)
I knew we'd come out here...
Vladimir,... a series of 8 throws contains 256 equally probable combinations of outcomes. EQUAL PROBABILITY(!)
That is, each of these combinations has the ONE probability of falling out. 1/256
At the same time, the number of combinations that contain equal numbers of heads and tails is 70 (!)... SEVEN... out of 256
And now answer yourself: if you write every possible combination on a separate piece of paper, ... roll them all up in a tube, throw them all in a box and mix them up, then which combination you would most often randomly draw from the box?
Clearly, with the combination that has an equal number of heads and tails. But not because the graph always NEEDS zero, but stupidly because there are MORE of those combinations than others in number (!). A common statistical circumstance with an EQUAL probability of falling out for every combination.
So don't give a sequence a magical ability to tend to zero just because you, quite naturally, just OVERALL the combinations that are trivially more in number.
Charts of who? What is this nonsense?
The founder of such graphs is the Surgeon General. Not you, that's for sure.)
The founder of such charts is the Surgeon General. Not you, that's for sure.)
What are you talking about? The screenshots are graphs of sums of random values +1/-1.
I knew we'd come out here...
Vladimir,... a series of 8 throws contains 256 equally likely combinations of outcomes. EQUAL PROBABILITY(!)
That is, each of these combinations has the same probability of falling out. 1/256
At the same time, the number of combinations that contain an equal number of heads and tails is 70 (!)... SEVEN... out of 256
And now answer yourself: if you write every possible combination on a separate piece of paper, ... roll it up in a tube, throw them all in a box and mix it up, which combination you would choose at random the most?
Clearly, with the combination that has an equal number of heads and tails. But not because the graph always NEEDS zero, but stupidly because there are MORE of those combinations than others in number (!). A common statistical circumstance with an EQUAL probability of falling out for each combination.
So it's not worth endowing a sequence with a magical ability to tend towards zero just because you, quite naturally, simply CHOOSE to stumble upon combinations that are trivially more in number.
Nothing against you, BUT.
Clearly with a combination that hasan equal number ofheads and tails.But not because the graph always STRENGTHENS to zero, butstupidly because there are MORE such combinations than others in number (!).
Maybe you've figured out what you've written yourself by now? Have you finally got it?
That's exactly what I've been proving for days now. But even here they want to leave the grandfather in the fools. )
OK, show a graph on which for 10,000 (ten thousand) throws the line has gone further than 250 on the Y-axis.
You don't need to predict the SB graph, you need to use the statistical properties of the sequence.
A stop loss of 250 will get almost any series of 10000 . It is very easy to achieve, right on the fly
Nothing against you BUT.
Clearly, with a combination that hasan equal number ofeagles and tails.But not because the graph always STRENGTHENS to zero, butstupidly because there are MORE ofthose options than others in terms of number (!).
Maybe you've figured out what you've written yourself by now? Have you finally got it?
That's exactly what I've been proving for days now. But even here they want to leave the grandfather in the fools. )
The Dunning-Kruger effect is ametacognitive distortion in which people with low skill levels make erroneous conclusions, make bad decisions and are unable to recognise their mistakes because of their low skill level [1]. This leads them to have inflated perceptions of their own abilities.
And the Dunning-Kruger effect modulated by alcoholic dementia is a scary thing!
The Dunning-Kruger effect is ametacognitive distortion in which people with low skill levels draw erroneous conclusions, make poor decisions and are unable to recognise their mistakes due to their low skill level [1]. This leads them to have inflated perceptions of their own abilities.
And the Dunning-Kruger effect modulated by alcoholic dementia is a scary thing altogether!
That effect applies to you as well. Isn't it? A double-edged sword! ;))
And who here has been shouting about being prepared to pay $50,000 for a demonstration of making money on SB ?