Random wandering - page 42
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I want to summarise a bit. I think forum members agree with Vladimir's suggestion that although we don't know the true distribution, we can assume a 0.5 probability for the eagle. The point of the argument is not that, but that many disagree that it is possible to construct a predictive model at any stretch of time. Because the variation in the graph will be so large that it will break any prediction. Vladimir, let's have an experiment. Are you willing to share with us a code or an algorithm that will predict random walk?
I'm not quite dumb yet, putting a kernel bomb in the wrong hands.
For inquiring minds, my picture will suffice. I'll delete it in half an hour.
I want to summarise a bit. I think forum members agree with Vladimir's suggestion that even though we don't know the true distribution, we can assume a probability of 0.5 for eagle. The point of the argument is not that, but that many disagree that it is possible to construct a predictive model at any stretch of time. Because the variation in the graph will be so great that it will break any prediction. Vladimir, let's have an experiment. Would you be willing to share with us a code or algorithm that will predict random walk?
I'm not quite dumb yet, putting a kernel bomb in the wrong hands.
For inquiring minds, my picture will suffice. I'll delete it in half an hour.
I didn't ask your permission if I could predict
====
At least be mindful of picking on words).
Dovbach was picking on me and you're not watching your words here.
Wow! How come you didn't ask? How can you do that without my permission?!
.
Turns out you're an inquisitive boy.)
Yeah, we don't know the next flip because it's 50/50 or 0.5 probability.
I'm not saying I know the next flip of a coin.
I'm showing the results of a series of flips and analyzing it.
So I don't need a coin flip. There are bars on the chart of the currency pair, and this is a conditional series of coin tosses.
I am getting a little frank with you. I may give away all the secrets.) It's time to go.)
Well maybe you should open a forex signal then. I am personally interested in buying successful signals, I think, as are a lot of people.
I'm not interested in selling signals. They are there purely for fun))
Is that it? Now you realise he's just trolling?
So I don't need coin tosses. There are bars on the chart of a currency pair and this is a conditional series of coin tosses.
You are talking about a coin, but you are showing a graph of the euro/dollar price. The coin has no memory, it does not remember if it was flipped or not, it does not remember anything at all. The market process is different.
Let me be corrected if I am wrong. I admit it.
Apparently you drank the wrong cognac last time.
You talk about a coin, but you show a graph of the euro/dollar price. The coin has no memory, it doesn't remember if it was tossed or not, it doesn't remember anything at all. The market process is different.
Let me be corrected if I am wrong. I admit it.
Apparently you had the wrong cognac last time.
I've seen for a long time that you're not the judge of cognac.)
Tell me something, uncle. Is the next tick on the market known? And the next one after that? And the next.
Wouldn't you agree, dear man, that ticks are a random process or figuratively the same coin?