ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations, june 2021 - page 5

 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

Maybe once....

I watched his seminars, but that's not what he says: "As soon as I see a small profit, I immediately exit the market, even if the deal was worth 2pp".

I suspect he has made more profit from seminars and book sales than from the market as a trader.

 

SP 500 continues its way, approaching overhang and the award hamsters who are well stocked at the catch (traders while sitting and waiting - usually the fifth wave take 2-3 points, repulsing the commission, and how the hamster - buying? on the headland catches and pours on the headland hai - usually on spikes)

We've already established that the hamster is a trader who has reached the pinnacle of skill.


 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

Maybe once....

I watched his seminars, but he says exactly the opposite: "As soon as I see a small profit - I immediately leave the market, even if the trade brought 2 pips".

So Larry acts as a typical trader - not as a hamster, waiting for the 5th wave takes 2 pips and barely returns the commission?

So standing from 180 on the sberbank from 2020 he could not do that ?)) it is the dividend hamsters that have kept their entries from 2020 ))) from catching the spike of the month -- March

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Hamster tactic to withdraw dividends and exit on the hawks


 
Vitalii Ananev:

The gap was even higher than the dividend.

If you look at the dividend history of the prefs of Surgut, it turns out that they pay a high dividend one year and a low one year. In year 18 the dividend yield was 18% in year 19 less than 3%, in year 20 it was 14%. From this we can assume that for year 21 the yield will not be more than 5%. I think if you take Surgut's prefs now, with an eye to future dividends, the term should be no less than two to three years.

As you know, Surgut's profits strongly depend on exchange rate revaluation of its large foreign currency reserves, so their growth for good dividends started at the end of 2020, of course this was supported by a recovery in oil prices, etc.

That is why it is possible to take divs when there is reason to believe that they will be significant) and not in an ephemeral way for 2 or 3 years.

 
Aleksey Mavrin:

As you know, Surgut's profits are highly dependent on exchange rate revaluation of a large stock of currency, so their growth in the expectation of good dividends started at the end of 2020.

That is why it is possible to take divs when there is reason to believe that they will be significant) and not in an ephemeral way for 2 or 3 years.

Right...

 

NLMK announced an impending dividend of 13.62, which is about 5.5% of the current value.

It makes sense to buy, as the stock is likely to go up in the near term.

 
PapaYozh:

NLMK announced an impending dividend of 13.62, which is about 5.5% of the current value.

It makes sense to buy, as the stock is likely to go up in the near term.

It is for 2Q21 dividends, and if we also take into account the fact that they want to "screw up" steelmakers by introducing export duties starting from August 21 (temporary for now, but they might leave them in place), it is still not certain that it will go up.

 
Vitalii Ananev:

This is for 2Q21 divas, and if we take into account the fact that metal producers are going to be "screwed" by the export duty from August 21 (temporary for now, but may be left permanently), it is still not certain that it will go up.

Damn, the metallurgists have only one headache - when to sell without regret )).

The solution as always is simple - do not sell).

And for those who are still thinking to buy I do not buy almost anything yet, I have not decided yet about inflation and the Fed's policies. But I also do not sell.)

To the question then what are you doing? I will answer the famous quote - Futures trading).

 
Aleksey Mavrin:

Yeah, man, with metallurgists now the only headache is when to sell and not to regret it ))

The solution as always is simple - do not sell).

Good decision. The main thing is not to buy G companies.

Aleksey Mavrin:

And those who are thinking of buying more, well ugh, I do not buy almost anything so far,

I'll answer with a famous quote - we're dabbling in futures.)

This is already doubtful.

 
Aleksey Mavrin:

Yeah, man, with metallurgists now the only headache is when to sell and not to regret it ))

The solution as always simple - do not sell).

And for those who are still thinking about buying - I'm not really buying anything yet, I have not decided about inflation and the Fed's policies yet. But I also do not sell.)

To the question, then, what are you doing? I will answer with a famous quote - we dabble in futures.)

Of all the metallurgists, I only bought more from MMK on a drawdown. MMK sales for the most part are oriented to our domestic market - over 70%. Severstal (about 50% domestic market) and NLMK (40% domestic market) I'm not going to sell.

The duties will only affect raw materials (so-called slabs). No one is preventing metallurgists from stopping the export of slabs and from exporting finished products at once. MMK, Severstal, NLMK have a fairly wide range of rolled steel products. But NLMK has somewhere around 40% of its production capacities in the USA and Europe. If we take into account US import duty (NLMK imports raw materials from Russia for its production in the USA) for steel is 25% and our export duty will be added at 15%. NLMK will be hit hardest by the part of its production located in the United States. Prices for their products will not be competitive with other producers. They will have to find other suppliers of raw materials for their production in the USA. Otherwise they will have to raise product prices to offset our export duty.

Most of the steel is smelted in China. Chinese are in 1st place Russia is only in 5th place. Introduction of export duties will reduce competitiveness of our metallurgists and we might lose our market.

Rusal will suffer a lot because of all aluminum production (not counting foil and aluminum disks) it produces only raw materials.