Charles Dow's theory - page 8

[darirunu1]

Renat Akhtyamov:

mathatan(Bid), is it difficult?

hysteresis gives you a lag in price, which allows you to buy and sell at different prices.

mathatan(Bid) and Bid

VLF in the mashup showed

Matharcsin is the most stable model so far in my opinion.

[Yousufkhodja Sultonov]

Renat Akhtyamov:

but one thing

if this is going to get really interesting.

I've already asked the question - what is the tau coefficient, for what reason there are so many decimal places

and the answer is silence and it hasn't been possible to get to the bottom of it yet.

so it looks like these formulas were copied from some book without understanding the physical meaning.

I can simplify a formula to a very high school level and retain the result

in 2020 I posted on the forum hysteresis and LPF

formulas are elementary, and they are made of 3 floors, and the result is equivalent to the original ....

what is presented on page 1 are functions on n, nothing more, and they are made to add up to 1, that's all

Moreover, at n<4 no 1 is obtained, which completely destroys the author's idea.

All in all, it's a long way to the cup.

Renat, have you already received an answer to your question about Tau coefficienthttps://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/358795/page14#comment_19964240?

Tau is one of the three parameters in the P, H and B functions. It is a representation of time in Laplace transformations and a "translator" of "our" time into market processes, if you understood something of what was said .The point is that, as it turns out, for each process there is a time running at the beginning of that process. Tau brings our time and the process of trading into alignment. time, under a common denominator. and is, in fact, a coefficient and can take any value. It also has a profound philosophical meaning, but more on that later. In autotronics the value inverse to Tau is called the system impedance - resistance to the process flow. If it were not for this resistance, everything would happen instantaneously and you and I would not exist.

Read the forum carefully and do not accuse me of something I did not do! There is more about Tau elsewhere. Finally, read an article from ten years ago.https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/250

[Yousufkhodja Sultonov]

darirunu1:
It is a pity that the hysteresis and VFD cannot be written in a ready-to-use way in MT, such as MATHABC; MATHARCCOC or MATHARCSİN.

post yourhysteresis and VFD here! The PNB will have it sorted out in a fraction of a second.

[Yousufkhodja Sultonov]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

Hold.

It is reliable enough to predict that the next value will be zero or one.

Your example is parsed for the first 20 data, asked in exel format, you did not give, myself did for the initial 20 data, the answer is this:

Analytical formula: n=-0.07872, tau= 12.2567, D= 55.4632, Dcorr = 1.133189? H+P+B =1 holds unequivocally.

y=H	П	Б	H+P+B
0,00015	3,84684E-06	0,99985	1
0,00109	5,68403E-05	0,99885	1
0,00333	0,000265811	0,9964	1
0,00715	0,000776251	0,99207	1
0,01264	0,001751623	0,98561	1
0,01976	0,003358069	0,97688	1
0,02839	0,005753458	0,96586	1
0,03834	0,009079858	0,95258	1
0,0494	0,013458721	0,93714	1
0,06131	0,018988157	0,9197	1
0,07384	0,025741817	0,90042	1
0,08674	0,033768968	0,87949	1
0,09979	0,043095454	0,85711	1
0,11278	0,053725251	0,8335	1
0,12551	0,065642455	0,80885	1
0,13783	0,078813487	0,78336	1
0,14959	0,093189435	0,75722	1
0,16067	0,108708395	0,73062	1
0,17098	0,125297786	0,70372	1
0,18045	0,142876537	0,67668	1
0,18901	0,161357146	0,64963	1
0,19664	0,180647578	0,62271	1
0,20331	0,200652947	0,59604	1
0,20901	0,221277085	0,56971	1
0,21376	0,242423858	0,54381	1
0,21757	0,263998355	0,51843	1
0,22047	0,285907822	0,49362	1
0,22248	0,308062562	0,46945	1
0,22366	0,330376571	0,44596	1
0,22404	0,352768092	0,42319	1
0,22368	0,375160051	0,40116	1
0,22262	0,397480268	0,3799	1
0,22091	0,41966179	0,35943	1

[Evgeniy Chumakov]

Yousufkhodja Sultonov:

Your example is parsed for the first 20 data, asked for exel format, you didn't give,

Here I did, although I thought I was a "backbone breaker" and can translate it into the required format myself.

Now draw the current series and forecast series, because in your pictures it is not clear where the forecast series is.

[denis.eremin]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

Here I have done it, although I thought that - a "backbone breaker" and myself are able to translate into the right format.

Now draw the current series and the forecast series, because in your pictures it is not clear where the forecast series is.

He has already posted the forecast for the first five points 15 points ahead - the lower chart. The blue curve is observations. The red one is the forecast.

All Yusuf's discoveries are non-linear regression of the form x=a + b*y^2

He discovered it many years ago and hasn't closed it yet.

[Evgeniy Chumakov]

denis.eremin:

He has already posted the forecast for the first five points 15 points ahead - bottom graph.

The blue curve is observations. The red one is the forecast.

The prediction cannot be higher than 1 and lower than 0. You have to predict when the next value is guaranteed to be zero or one.

[denis.eremin]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

The prediction cannot be higher than 1 and lower than 0. You have to predict when the next value is guaranteed to be zero or one.

I repeat - Yusuf's only great discovery isnon-linear regression of the form x=a + b*y^2.

He doesn't have anything else.

He has it - he draws it.

It's not his fault the regression is of this form. He has nothing else.

[Yousufkhodja Sultonov]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

The prediction cannot be higher than 1 and lower than 0. You have to predict when the next value is guaranteed to be zero or one.

Get it:

[Renat Akhtyamov]

Yousufkhodja Sultonov:

Get this:

what will drawdown and risk look like?