On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 18
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These are the currencies of your experiment - top GBP, bottom EUR , yes - eur to buy, gbp to sell, but that's why in the "right" proportions?
Those who wish may leave wishes to watch the trick in real time for a third time. (Otherwise, you might get lucky two times... )
Of course it's lucky. Third time! Please))
Now watch your hands.
Consideration 1. If we consider the EURGBP pair chart as an independent value without any idea that we are looking at any instruments from which this very EURGBP can be expressed, then it is kind of obvious that the probability of EURGBP going "up" and "down" is the same: 50%.
Consideration 2. Nothing prevents us from considering the EN instrument chart as an independent variable. Exactly on the same grounds, with the same conclusion: the probabilities of upward and downward movements are the same.
Consideration 3. The above considerations 1 and 2 are not consistent with each other. Let us show this.
My counter i here varies from 0 to n-1, where n = 289, the value 0 corresponds to the "leftmost" count, farthest in the past, the value 288 corresponds to the "rightmost" count, the freshest in the consideration.
So. Rightmost" value of EURGBP: 0.84341. Let's check EN for some deltaEN = 0.3 (in plus and minus). What do we see? That the values of deltaEP that correspond to the increasing EN (i.e. positive deltaEN = 0.3) and declining EN (i.e. negative deltaEN = -0.3) are not equal to each other:
Question: how is this possible? If we consider that movements of some magnitude up or down for EN are equally probable, we have asymmetry in EP. If we assume that movements in the EP pair by some value are equally probable, we have asymmetry in EN.
And if we swap the two rows, the probabilities change, and if we make the two rows identical, the probabilities are the same.
If it's okay to be on a first-name basis (I see you're respectful of everyone)?
I have a lot of questions (if I may))
What's the point of your thread?
That you have found the Holy Grail?
If you've found it, you've earned it and you can't put the money in your coffin?
And if you have a lot of money and started this branch ... while you do not want to bury them with yourself, why not share with the public how to do it?
My answer is simple.
You are a demchik and later you will sell some nonsense -)))
No? Let me write your thought on the mt5 and prove it's a hat?
For demchiki do not even know what surprises await them in the real world))).
The Real " in addition to what I wrote earlier about the problems of REAL (and in general about making money on the Forex), I'm now trying to make a prediction in a month I will change the auction house because it is a hat (tech support says it is lightning fast execution)
EgorKim:
You're a demo man and you'll sell some nonsense later -)))
No? Why don't I write your idea on mt5 and prove it to you?
Because demo traders do not even know what surprises are waiting for them on the real market ))))
Thanks for the offer. Not required. Anything I need to program, I can do myself. Yeah, it's crooked, it's slanted, but it works for me. https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/325743
I'm not going to sell you anything either, why do you have such thoughts?
Thank you for the offer. Not required. Anything I need to program, I can do myself. Yeah, it's crooked, it's slanted, but it suits me fine: https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/325743
I'm not going to sell you anything either, why would you think that?
I'm not having second thoughts. You're messing with people's heads.
You haven't written anything of substance.)
But praising your clever brain.)
And to the point...
Tell me the address of the place that pays you the money to litter the forum with clever threads)
And on the merits of the question.
Tell me the address of the company which pays you the money to litter the forum with clever threads)
OK, I'll show the trick in real time for the third time and wrap up this thread. The situation is now in one of the possible views (I can run additional curves in different ways):
In the form of "on one chart and only prices":
Conclusion: buy EURUSD on a volume of 2.714, and sell GBPUSD on a volume of 1. Let's go.