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To clarify. The E, D, Y curves separately do not depend on which pairs you calculate them from. The input information I deduce is contained in any triangle (in any pair of pairs). For the market is tightly coordinated. Iwill hold this series of shamanism until tomorrow to admire the discussion for now.
Would you say a triangle of three pairs is an adequate assessment of the nature of the relationship between currencies? I doubt it.
Now pay attention to the trick.
The assertion is this: if we put D=1, E=ED, Y=1/DY in a bar 12 hours in the past from the end, and try to plot E, D, and Y separately to these initial values in this bar 12 hours in the past from the end, then the changes in E, D, and Y in these 12 hours (144 bars) were so:
In order that all who wish can construct for themselves and be convinced of the following, I give the data columns of these curves:
You have all three of them starting with 1.
I await applause and attempts to point out HOW I constructed the E, D, Y curves.
For a hundred quid, I'll build it and put it out to the masses.
Would you say a triangle of three pairs is an adequate assessment of the nature of the relationship between currencies?
You have all three beginning with 1.
No, the charts are signed: E/E0. Or: Y/Y0. This is to reduce all three to 1 and show on the same chart. E0 is ED in the bar "12 hours back from the end of the file", Y0 is Yenadollar in the bar 12 hours back from the end of the file (1/DY), but I chose 1 for Dollar in that bar. It defines E0 and Y0. Importantly, the curves are then plotted as ratios to these STATE values.
If you see EURUSD rising due to EUR Rising and USD falling ONE time, then two of those processes areless likely to break off and be replaced by the other.
A situation in which one curve rises and the other curve is strictly horizontal will never occur.
How is this probability calculated?
Is there anything else you need? :-) I want to know how E, P, D change - I take a triangle of three relations of them to each other. I want to know how D, Y, E change - another triangle. The graphs for D will follow ONE of them. The relationship is rigid and cannot get lost anywhere. Otherwise, any fool would trade on the difference between EURUSD and synthetics calculated from EURJPY and USDJPY, for example. However, it is not possible :-)
1-That's what you've described about the supposed beauty of indices, in part yes, it's harder to make a mistake with indices turning in different directions simultaneously (or almost) than with a single currency. Besides, it is not always true that it is easier to make a mistake with one currency pair in one direction than with 2, if you do not care about the inertia of these currencies, i.e. the strength of movement. Otherwise it is also 50/50.
Is there anything else you need? :-) I want to know how E, P, D change - I take a triangle of three relations of them to each other. I want to know how D, Y, E change - another triangle. The graphs for D will follow ONE of them. The relationship is rigid and cannot get lost anywhere. Otherwise, any fool would trade on the difference between EURUSD and synthetics calculated from EURJPY and USDJPY, for example. However, it is not possible :-)
The 2nd is not about statar arbitrage
A situation in which one curve rises and the other curve is strictly horizontal will never occur.
How is this probability calculated?
Did anyone say that the second one is strictly horizontal? What I meant was that it is important to understand WHEN a Pair's movement is caused by BOTH of its components. For example, if EURUSD rises because EUR is more likely to rise (linear regression e.g. clearly up) and USD is more likely to fall (linear regression e.g. clearly down), then we know that in this case the probability of an upward move is higher than a reversal. We buy with TP=SL and catch the TP with more than 50% probability. GRAAL-c.