What is the average length of time it takes to understand the processes and identify some of the hidden patterns in forex? - page 9

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C-4:

Here you yourself do not notice how you are gradually slipping into "windmills". Until you understand that, your path will be thorny and unproductive. The problem is not that the computer can't calculate all 6 000 000 combinations of parameters in any Expert Advisor, the problem is in your lack of understanding of what is really important and what is not. Determine what is important and you won't have to fool around with the other 5,999,999,999 combinations. This is just an example, but it gets the point across.


The example does not really fit here. The topic here is about understanding the market, so it's better to talk about indicators - tools to help you understand the market, rather than advisers.

I am making a predictive indicator. My forecasting task comes down to the least moduli method. There is a certain amount of unknowns. We calculate the values of several functions of these unknowns on some number of bars, take the modules of all these values and add them all together. The unknowns need to be selected in such a way that the sum is minimal. Suppose the unknowns are 2500, functions are 10 and bars are 5000. Having solved the problem we will get a forecast for 2500 bars. The idea itself is very simple - to find the minimum of a function. But I do not know any simple and fast solution. And there is nothing to throw away, everything is important here.

 
C-4: fighting windmills
And there really are no such windmills. There are windmills.
 
moskitman: Well, let's say, if we offer each of you an Expert Advisor that gives 20% to 75% of a deposit per month for free, how many of you would have enough money not to look for something else? Not to try to increase its profitability, not to smooth out drawdowns (even if they are not there) and not to try to add something else?
And why would I want a black box - even if supposedly with decent profitability?
 

Mathemat: А зачем мне черный ящик - пусть даже якобы с приличной прибыльностью?

Well, people do put money in banks and at much lower interest rates. A bank is also a kind of black box. No one knows when it will go bankrupt ))))
 
Figar0: 112

Yes, 112 )))
 
LeoV:
Well, people do put money in banks and at much lower interest rates. A bank is also a kind of black box. No one knows when it will go bankrupt ))))

Banks give guarantees which are protected by law.

And what guarantee will moskitman give me? Will he give me my money back if instead of 20% per month it is -20% if he follows the system exactly?

 
ask: Do you want to say (paraphrasing you): The market is simple and you can make money on it using rather simple and primitive methods?

I fully and unreservedly agree with C-4.

Regarding this, I can explain the following.

The TC can be either complex or simple. What is the difference between them? The difference is this -

The trader applying both complex and simple TS, eventually comes to the same end - he has to determine by some methods or his intuition how his TS will work in the future on unknown data, since the trader trades not on past data, but on future data, I think that everyone must agree with this. And no one knows what will happen in the future, especially neither the most complex nor the simplest TS.

What is a complex or simple TS? What are the pros and cons?

A complex TS has:

1. A large number of variables, which can and unambiguously lead to adjustment for past data, which consequently leads to plum in the future.

2. To avoid adjustment it is necessary to fix some variables - what variables should be fixed, how to fix them?

3. Due to a large number of variables - a large number of combinations of parameters from which it is difficult to choose the parameters that will work best in the future. 2.

Difficult for a trader to grasp the principles of TS operation, therefore it is difficult to predict the operation in the future.

A simple TS has:

1. Small amount of variables which allows to avoid adjustment.

2. Fixing of some variables which can be understood and fixed in the right value. 3.

Not many combinations of parameters which can be understood due to market changes in the future. 4.

4. The operation of TS, which can be interpreted and understood how it may work in the future and if it will not work in the future, then why. )))

The point of my post is that the problem, for both complex and simple TS, is the same - how it will work in the future.

 
Mathemat:

The bank gives guarantees protected by law.

What guarantee will moskitman give me? Will he give me my money back if instead of 20% a month it is -20% if I follow the system exactly?

I agree. But no bank will give +20% per month. The higher the return, the greater the risk. Getting +20% with guarantees is impossible ))))
 
Mathemat:
And there really are no such mills. There are windmills.
But there are such women).
 
khorosh: But there are women like that).

Only windy ones.

Ah, whatever, and why am I so attached to grammar...

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