I'm getting a bit dumb on the probabilities. - page 3

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Yeah, Bernoulli's formula is confusing. The fact is that in the classic Soviet probability theory textbooks there is a historical case. A mathematician came to a pub one day and invited people to play dice. And he said that the game would be played with four dice. If he gets at least one six, the mathematician gets the winnings. Otherwise, his opponent would take the winnings. Because the combination fell out more often, in which at least one dice fell six, they refused to play with it. It was also said that the probabilities should be added 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3, that's why they refused to play with him. Classic, it turns out that if you take 7 dice and play under the same conditions, the textbook is wrong! What's up :)
 

drknn, you didn't take into account that the event "exactly once every three days" can occur in three different ways. Better yet, read Bernoulli's scheme, a very fundamental thing.

About the maths: it's more complicated than that, I'll think about it.

 

I found it.

 
Mathemat:

drknn, you didn't take into account that the event "exactly once every three days" can occur in three different ways. Better yet, read Bernoulli's scheme, a very fundamental thing.

About the maths: it's more complicated than that, I'll think about it.


What's there to think about? I'd play it that way too. To that mathematician :)
 
 

Vladimir, be stricter in terminology, limitations and assumptions - you yourself narrated: "... If there is at least one six...". An alternative definition is "one and only one six".

There are lies, blatant lies and statistics. Only the latter is theoretically sound :)

 

Blimey, Alexei: statistical advantage is what we call it here. If the game were played on three dice, there would be a statistical probability (pardon my French) of 0.5; and on four, the grail:)

 

So, namesake, what is the probability of getting at least one six in one roll of four dice?

The way I see it: the probability of "no sixes" is (5/6)^4 ~ 0.482. The probability of at least one is 1 - 0.482 = 0.518. Well, not such a grail, to be honest. Besides, it is not easy to detect this statistical advantage reliably, it requires many tests. Do you agree with such calculation?

And on three - well, it's not like that either, there's no 0.5.

 
Mathemat:

Well, namesake, what is the probability of getting at least one six on a single roll of four dice?

The way I see it: the probability of "no sixes" is (5/6)^4 ~ 0.482. Accordingly, the probability of at least one is 1 - 0.482 = 0.518. Well, not such a grail, to be honest. Besides, it is not easy to detect this statistical advantage reliably, it requires many tests. Do you agree with such calculation?

And on three - well, it's not like that either, there's no 0.5.

Does the casino, for example, have a big statistical advantage over the player?

Because google only talks about forex betting.

Academic interest.

P.S. It's not about machines, but about roulette, etc.

 

OK, let's go classic :)

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