[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 7: September 2011) - page 53
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TR took
the topic of the cause is not covered.
Is this addressed to me? If it's addressed to me, then my answer is this. I agree, one of...... is not disclosed, but it was not the task to cover all of them and analyse them....)))) In principle, here is the link to the website, where all the answers to all questions are available http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/monpol
One of the reasons, pegged at 1.2...EURCHF.
A barrage of negative news has been hitting investors since Friday and has not stopped so far. The German government, told Bloomberg that urgent preparations for a Greek default are underway. The regulators are drawing up a plan B, which they will use in case of a failed bailout in Athens. Berlin realises that a full-scale restructuring cannot be avoided. That, explains a lot. In particular, it explains why the Swiss suddenly pegged the Euro to the Franc - it's easy to see where the pair would have fallen had Athens defaulted. However, Papandreou, at the weekend, announced a new plan to increase the revenue of the treasury.
A counter question is if the SNB would peg the exchange rate if Greece defaulted. It would be more and more difficult to hold the 1.20 level in the event of a depreciating euro. And it is not just the franc as an insurance currency that all traders would run to, but above all the euro. Now, if we consider the situation with Greek default, it begs another question, would you buy huge amounts of depreciating currencies with francs, the prospects for which are far from rosy. The answer is not likely. Again, there is information about the purchase (or intentions) by China of Italian securities. Would you as an investor buy the securities of a "five minutes" (as rumoured in the press) bankrupt company? The answer is obvious. It seems to me that everything that is going on in the market now is a big fraud. After all, the U.S. benefits from a low dollar exchange rate to support exports. Why not imagine that it was a scam to bring down the euro. Maybe the exchange rate of 1.5 dollars per euro bothers somebody.
And the Japanese are quiet. The yen has already broken every record it can. How will they organise another intervention all of a sudden.
A counter-question is whether the SNB would have pegged the exchange rate in the event of a Greek default, given all prospects of the euro falling far back. After all, it would be increasingly difficult to maintain the 1.20 level in the event of a depreciating euro. And it is not just the franc as an insurance currency that all traders would run to, but above all the euro. Now, if we consider the situation with Greek default, it begs another question, would you buy huge amounts of depreciating currencies with francs, the prospects for which are far from rosy. The answer is not likely. Again, there is information about the purchase (or intentions) by China of Italian securities. Would you as an investor buy the securities of a "five minutes" (as rumoured in the press) bankrupt company? The answer is obvious. It seems to me that everything that is going on in the market now is a big fraud. After all, the U.S. benefits from a low dollar exchange rate to support exports. Why not imagine that it was a scam to bring down the euro. Maybe the exchange rate of 1.5 dollars per euro bothers somebody.
And the Japanese are quiet. The yen has already broken every record it can. How will they organise another intervention all of a sudden.
I'm not quite sure what your Fundamentals analysis has to do with my post.
The announced peg to the 1.2 level... turned out to be not a "duck" but official information. Whether the Swiss can hold that level or not is another question. I gave one of the many reasons influencing such a decision, namely the possible default of Greece, and that's it.
" ....will you buy for francs......" Switzerland, says it will buy surpluses of any currency, not just the eurik, otherwise, how to keep the 1.2 level...? They want to prevent "capital flight", there is such a term, into the CHF.
As for Italy, by the end of the year, they will have to borrow around €70bn on the debt markets, which is a significant risk for the EUR/USD as a downside factor. Italy, is one of the biggest economies in Europe...., so that....))))
The Chinese factor in Europe has been discussed for more than a year already, but so far the Chinese money has not saved any "troubled" country of the European Union. But it may well be...)).
Regarding the "dis-information" ....Why not? You can, currency market analytics, you can do everything.... submit....))))
Sorky, it is so -- magnetic, by the end of 2012 three compound harmonics of magnetic storm cycles short term, medium term and long term will overlap (see NASA's official website for details) and it will be the end of the world according to the Mayan calendar for all power transformers will fail if the power industry does nothing by that time...
http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/magnetic_storms.html
are there correlations being observed...?...:-))
You have written one of the reasons for pegging to the euro (in your opinion), to which I have only given my personal opinion. Pegging in the face of a possible default is (it seems to me) quite a risky move because not only the euro will flee, but also the dollar and the pound (just look at the charts for 2008). The SNB will be stretched to contain the strengthening of the franc against all currencies. In my view the peg is caused by a slowing economy and export problems in Switzerland.
Into the ruble!
Into the ruble!
Into the ruble!
Yeah... The ruble is still a lure...
))))) BREAD ))))
Yeah... The ruble is still a lure...