FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 5: July 2011) - page 172
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The interbank in the US is "dead" and the Fed's money is offshore?
The Fed did continue to accurately buy government bonds this week, a little faster than the MBS payoff, but generally staying within the $600 +/- 5 billion net buying range. The government bond portfolio reached $1630.4 billion, securities on the balance sheet of $2654.3bn, and total assets of $2882bn. Bank reserves set a new record of $1708.5bn, as did cash on banks' balance sheets, which came close to $1.8 trillion, at $1796.5bn.
Bank credit rose, but almost all of the net growth was other loans. After three consecutive weeks of decline, mortgage loans rose (+$10.6bn), but consumer credit (-$3.6bn) and corporate loans (-$4.7bn) declined, so overall lending, after adjusting for the change in calculation methodology, showed nothing new and interesting - credit stabilised, but we cannot yet speak of the beginning of bank lending growth. Interestingly enough, the data on inter-bank loans came out, the volume of which fell to $108bn by July 6, while the last time such levels were registered in 1983, but then the banks' assets were 6 times lower, in fact, the inter-bank loans were simply dead, before the crisis started the inter-bank loans reached $450-500bn, now the inter-bank loans are just over $100bn. For the first time in the post-war period the inter-bank loans were below 1% of bank assets. For small and medium-sized banks this could be a serious problem.
Foreign banks have not taken any special action in recent weeks, liabilities to non-resident offices are virtually unchanged, remaining around $50-70bn. Cash at foreign banks has started to gradually shrink and stood at $845.6bn by 6 July, representing 45.9% of their assets. But now US banks have reduced their liabilities to foreign branches to their lowest levels since 2006, $230-240 billion, cutting them by $66 billion, or nearly a quarter, in just a few weeks.
Some Western resources have suggested that the sharp capital flow is the so-called "Eurodollars" - dollar deposits outside the US. The point is that the transfer of dollars from the US to accounts of non-resident banks is actually reflected as a liability of a US bank to a non-resident bank. And then the situation is reversed, i.e. it was a withdrawal of dollars from the US, specifically dollars (without conversion to other currencies). Actually, quite an interesting option, but then it has to be accompanied by a dumping of US assets, with a dumping of those assets by residents (otherwise it would be reflected in capital flows according to the Ministry of Finance reports) with a transfer of dollars from the US to non-resident banks. And in the first quarter alone, the amount would have been close to $300-350bn, which is not a small amount. According to the Fed, it could have been households (which poured out $283bn in 1Q), but they poured out into mutual funds and paid off some of their mortgage debts. This means that the withdrawal channels were slightly different. The mutual funds pumped money into the US credit and equity markets, of course the banks have reserves at the Fed in their assets, so it is not realistic to determine the source. Apparently most of the flow has passed as "Unidentified Miscellaneous Financial liabilities/assets", i.e. as such the ends there will be difficult to find. This option also has no full-fledged confirmation, but still looks relatively realistic.
It means that the Fed's money has been bluntly withdrawn in its entirety from the USA and stored in "dollars" outside the USA. If it is true (of course there are doubts that it is true, but nevertheless) - then QE2 is nothing but preparation for default on US government bonds and this preparation began in advance and the Fed is a direct participant in the process. We'll see of course, but if the default is announced - then we can say with some certainty that the decision to default was made in advance and all the current games of the Republicans and Democrats is nothing but a brazen show.
Source http://www.alpari.ru/ru/fa/33465.html
In a week's time there will be a low of 1.37500, then a reversal to the north :)
In a week's time there will be a low of 1.37500, then a reversal to the north :)
In a week's time there will be a low of 1.37500, then a reversal to the north :)
Can you let me use the turkey?
In a week's time there will be a low of 1.37500, then a reversal to the north :)
it is posted in the library
I haven't seen it. Throw in the link please.