FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 5: July 2011) - page 248
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I see, but the Eur has been falling since the beginning of the session, it cannot fall properly).
the eurodollar goes down with it...
Your words)).
Oh, you mean since the beginning of the American session?
The eu was not falling, but correcting.
corrected
Eh, they should go back and forth, the rest is not that important).
All market attention is focused on the ongoing negotiations on the US debt ceiling, and - after a reminder from German finance minister - on unanswered questions about the Eurozone sovereign debt problem.
And in general the Euro currency is running fine with no glitches today.
All market attention is focused on the ongoing negotiations on the US debt ceiling and - after a reminder from the German finance minister - on unanswered questions about the eurozone sovereign debt problem.
i.e. they could agree any day before the 2nd?
and then will there be movement?
The world's biggest asset managers such as BlackRock, Loomis Sayles and Franklin Templeton Investments expect the credit rating of the United States to be lowered.
BlackRock analysts believe that when the decision deadline comes close to the critical point, US politicians will still raise the government debt ceiling. Nevertheless, the likelihood that the country will lose its top credit rating is still high.
Loomis Sayles Bond Fund experts, on the other hand, doubt that the White House and Congress will be able to reach an agreement and believe that at least one of the agencies will lower the US rating. At the same time, the fund says that regardless of whether US debt is at AAA or AA, the Tregs will still remain a large and liquid market.
BNP Paribas strategists, however, are of the opinion that investor confidence in US government bonds is falling. Thus, yields indicate that market participants prefer Tregers to bank and corporate debt. Yields on key 10-year US securities rose to 2.97% today, although still below the last decade's average of 4.05%.
Economists at Franklin Templeton Investments say that the lack of a solution to US problems in the short term will cast a shadow over the "risk-free" status of US debt.
Credit Agricole analysts believe the risk of the United States losing its top credit rating is quite high, given the fact that negotiations to raise the public debt ceiling are currently at a standstill.
If the credit rating of the United States is downgraded, stock markets will fall and bearish pressure on the US dollar will increase. The bank believes that the shock experienced by the US economy in the event of a downgrade will result in a near-zero growth rate in the third quarter, while in contrast, a potential resolution of the debt crisis could lead to a recovery in the final months of the year.
According to Credit Agricole, the EUR/USD pair will be supported by the widening spread between US and German government bonds for some time. At the same time, however, experts warn that with rising investor demand for safe-haven assets, yields on US Treasury bonds could fall.
In addition, the strategists emphasize that the August 2 deadline for increasing the borrowing limit is not final - the government will have another 1-2 weeks before it runs out of money. Therefore, analysts believe that the panic is somewhat exaggerated and the rise of the Euro will be limited. The same opinion is held by Societe Generale. In their view, the pair will not hold above $1.45.