The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 76
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The vast majority of people believe that quotes are random and that a deterministic component can be identified in them.
To hold the opposite viewpoint and argue that the market is deterministic, it must be proven by the results of the TS.
That is exactly what I want to do.
As long as the statistics are not on your side ).
Fair point. As long as the statistics are not on my side.
We're in the middle of a serious conversation - we're burying a tractor team. We don't have time for this!
.... You're early...
.... You're early...
don't ruin it for us.
The market cannot be deterministic, if only for the simple reason that the transactions entered into by market participants are stochastic.
Even the word "believes" is no longer appropriate :). The market is not random, the processes are not random, but stochastic."Randomness" and "stochasticity" - what do you see as the fundamental difference between these concepts?
don't ruin our holiday
;)))) Don't wait for it!!!
What is the fundamental difference between "randomness" and "stochasticity"?
Let's say I have a bot and my bot's trading process is almost deterministic if I know its logic and data required for analysis. Almost -- because there are redirects, connection interruptions, etc.
For other market participants, the process is stochastic because they are unaware of how the bot works and what it uses to analyse.
In fact, let's say I enter the market when I have an egg, and I choose the direction depending on what kind of egg I have. So the process would be stochastic for me as well. Although I am fully aware of the logic and the data is available to me for analysis :)
Quotations are, so to speak, the materialised consequence of an equilibrium of many differently directed forces (causes):
For our purposes, it is the equilibrium F that is essential. Its components Fi can behave arbitrarily - they can resonate with each other, compensate each other, introduce different effects, etc. - which is observed in the form of a stream of multidirectional news.
In this formulation the task is greatly simplified.
For me, the bot's trading process is almost deterministic if I know its logic and the data required for analysis. Almost, because there are redirects, connection interruptions, etc.
For other market participants the process is stochastic because they do not know how the bot works and what it uses for analysis.
Even so -- let's say I enter the market when my egg coughs, and I choose the direction depending on which egg. So the process will be stochastic for me as well. Though, I know the logic completely and the data are available to me for analysis :)
I'm confused, bro - the bot's trading process cannot be non-deterministic, non-stochastic.
The entries and exits of a bot to the market can be such. For example, a bot uses PRNG to open and close positions - its entries and exits will be random, but not its "trading process".
Confused, bro - a bot's trading process cannot be non-deterministic, non-stochastic.
The bot's entries and exits to the market can be. For example, a bot uses PRNG to open and close positions - its entries and exits will be random, but not its "trading process".
Built an automaton that outputs a 0 or 1 when a button is pressed. If a millisecond is even when the button is pressed, it outputs 0, if it is odd, it outputs 1. If an observer has no possibility to measure time with millisecond accuracy, the given automaton will give out random sequences, though in fact the generation algorithm is deterministic. It is the same with any PRNG. I.e. it all comes down to the observer having the necessary control information and knowing how to use it.
Randomness is a measure of the observer's ignorance, not a real property of objects or processes
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