EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 3) - page 305
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Here is what Mr Romanov writes:
Given some experience in September, I would refrain for now from looking for a high enough level to sell the dollar. Experience says that today the "high enough" condition is not the criterion for positioning. There, in the market, sits the Bank of Japan. It is said to be well visible through the EBS terminals. I'm not going to lie, but what I bought for, I sold for. Last September the intervention lasted for 24 hours. First a large number of contracts (a million dollars each), then a discontinuous series with an unstable number of lots, with pauses arbitrary. Anyway, don't go up against this samurai intervention - times have changed. They won't spare themselves, they'll stab you with a knife, and they'll slaughter you for sure. What's more, they have the active support of Berdanka and old geezer Trichet. Where there's a horse with a hoof, there's a crab with a claw. What, is it possible to compare the level of the dollar at 76-79 yen and the level of the euro at 110-111 yen? Please, 110 yen is lucky for the yen, and preferably even less for the Europeans in the first place. And for the Yanks, 76 is probably super profitable, but little realistic. And anyway, think about it, the market yesterday. Gave the people. Calmly. Buy the quid from 79 yen. That's below the past historical beacon of 79.85 yen. In short, I don't recommend selling the dollar today. I sold it from 85.50 in September and it was hovering above 86 for a week. There's no hurry. Accordingly, if your longs on the dollar are not asking for food, and do not make you nervous, I sincerely wish you further happiness. Let it hang. As for the euro-yen, that's really interesting. Would the ECB, on its own (albeit moronic) head, really buy the euro? The euro-yen? O Lord, how strange your deeds are!
The down trend on the pound is not broken (trend is working) there was a false breakdown (number of pips to be determined).
Here is what Mr Romanov writes:
Given some experience in September, I would refrain for now from looking for a high enough level to sell the dollar. Experience says that today the "high enough" condition is not the criterion for positioning. There, in the market, sits the Bank of Japan. It is said to be well visible through the EBS terminals. I'm not going to lie, but what I bought for, I sold for. Last September the intervention lasted for 24 hours. First a large number of contracts (a million dollars each), then a discontinuous series with an unstable number of lots, with pauses arbitrary. Anyway, don't go up against this samurai intervention - times have changed. They won't spare themselves, they'll stab you with a knife, and they'll slaughter you for sure. What's more, they have the active support of Berdanka and old geezer Trichet. Where there is a horse with a hoof, there is a crawfish with a claw. What, you can't compare the dollar level of 76-79 yen to the euro level of 110-111 yen? Please, 110 yen is lucky for the yen, and preferably even less for the Europeans in the first place. And for the Yanks, 76 is probably super profitable, but little realistic. And anyway, think about it, the market yesterday. Gave the people. Calmly. Buy the quid from 79 yen. That's below the past historical beacon of 79.85 yen. In short, I don't recommend selling the dollar today. I sold it from 85.50 in September and it was hovering above 86 for a week. There's no hurry. Accordingly, if your longs on the dollar are not asking for food, and do not make you nervous, I sincerely wish you further happiness. Let it hang. As for the euro-yen, that's really interesting. Would the ECB, on its own (albeit moronic) head, really buy the euro? The euro-yen? O Lord, how strange your deeds are!
I read that the ECB will only start intervening on Monday, but I don't know about the others.
I wrote yesterday afternoon that the big seven are meeting today...the intervention will take place within 24 hours
Which is basically what has happened.
2011.03.18 02:10:14 *Noda: We will announce the scope of the intervention in two months time
2011.03.18 02:09:26 *Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa issues emergency statement2011.03.18 02:10:43 AM *Noda: Intervention from 00:00 GMT was by Japan
2011.03.18 02:12:44 PM *G7 to intervene with Japan on currency market - G7 statement
2011.03.18 02:21:24 *G7: US, UK, Canada and Eurozone to join Japan in currency market intervention on March 18
Downwards of course. I'm not going to 1.50)))
I wrote yesterday afternoon that the big seven are meeting today...the intervention will take place within 24 hours
Which actually happened.
2011.03.18 02:10:14 *Noda: We will announce the scope of the intervention in two months
2011.03.18 02:09:26 *Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa issues emergency statement2011.03.18 02:10:43 AM *Noda: Intervention from 00:00 GMT by Japan
2011.03.18 02:12:44 PM *G7 to intervene with Japan on currency market - G7 statement
2011.03.18 02:21:24 *G7: US, UK, Canada and Eurozone to join Japan in currency market intervention on March 18
I read that. I can't find the article about Monday, I'll post it if I can't find it, I must have dreamt it)
This is just the beginning of interventions, they can take place within a week... That's why I showed Romanov's opinion... We have to be careful...
well 1.43-44 anyway before the south we will see..... 1.5 is questionable
First a correction to 1.3990 then to 1.4350
I think so: there is a "soft" intervention, unlike the September intervention, which is agreed (everybody has to comply) and suits all G7 members, it means there are price levels, today is the 7th day of the disaster in Japan, most likely the Yen pair should return to last week's channel. The intervention phase in JPY ended when EURJPY hit the upper bound of the weekly channel, USDJPY held up just last week and went slightly lower, EUR bought EUR and eurjpy returned to the upper bound of last week's channel, The USDJPY may go to the upper bound of the weekly channel and go up to 83 or thereabouts, it seems that the aim of the intervention (agreed) is to return to the last week's pre-event price levels. Japan will announce the results and the volume of intervention (in the news somewhere) in 2 months, and it is likely that the Bank of Japan will periodically support the yen exchange rate from speculators, a lot of carefully administered yen holdings, not like in September - one-man intervention and loss of half of the holdings. Maybe it is all bullshit but that is how I see the situation at the moment.