Strategic foresight systems - page 45

 
Tantrik:
looked beautiful!

The forecast has been found! As a reminder, "0" is 02.15 of this year. On the x-axis are days (trading days, not calendar days). This is the actual probability field, based on some model. The model error correlation is close to zero, so we can safely assume that all possibilities are taken into account

  • x axis Trade days
  • y-axis - price area
  • The "z" axis is a theoretical probability of occurrence of a pivot point in corresponding x and y days. The probabilities are small, because the unit is spread over the whole area

Another thing is that there is still a problem with the exact definition of the pivot point, it's a science! Statistics - may or may not encounter a dinosaur :o)

it looks like a fish (shark).

fish? Hmmm, maybe could be a fish.

 
Tantrik:
But there have been no forecasts.


Predictions are a thankless task. It is difficult to please everybody. There are many times more critics than those who really understand what is going on. Therefore, few people want to enter into polemics with them and get bombed.

But you can take the pulse of the market in this thread, which is what we are doing.

Put your understanding out there, people will appreciate it. But not intraday, of course:))).

 
Farnsworth:

Another thing is that there's still a problem with pinpointing the pivot zone, it's a science! Statistics - you may or may not meet a dinosaur :o)


Come on, let's try...)))? The current day, so it should end as a correction day, as it, contains the end of the cycle, 32 days....))))

 
ZetM:


Let's give it a try...)))? The current day, so should end as a corrective day, as it, contains the end of the cycle, 32 days....))))

Come on, only under your guidance. I am not interested in WA forecasts myself, but you are very interesting to read :o) And I have changed the main vector (already bragged about it :o)

PS: I am thinking steadily about the pivot area, it's like this: if you do it for a long time ... it will work :o)

 
Farnsworth:

Go ahead, but with your guidance. I'm not interesting in terms of WA forecasts myself, but you are very interesting to read :o) And I have changed the main vector (already boasted :o)

PS: I am thinking steadily about the pivot area, it's like this: if you do it for a long time ... it will work :o)


Noooo....)))) All my statements, pure "shamanism", anti-scientific ....)))Logic is as follows, we can assume that at any given time, in the market, there is only one dominant, trading cycle or trend. Maybe you can take an idea from the programme MESA for determining the pivot point. MESA calculates cycles on the basis of the FFT acronym, a computer algorithm,which is already mathematical, which means it is closer to accuracy... ))))You've got your cards in your hand ...))

 
ZetM:


Noooo....)))) All my statements are pure "shamanism", anti-science....)))

You think I don't have a shaman tambourine and I don't do the raccoon war dance and sacrifice? I'll let you in on a big secret - that's how the whole theory of random processes works :o)

The logic is this, we can assume that at a single moment in time there is only one dominant, trading cycle or trend in the market . The task, is to recognise this traded cycle.

It is not very clear how to build a coherent model of this mess.

Perhaps you can take an idea from the MESA program for determining the pivot point.MESA calculates cycles relying on the FFT acronym, a computer algorithm to perform the Fourier transform, which is mathematics, so it's closer to accuracy... ))))

The name sounds familiar, can you give me a link to remind me?

You've got your cards in your hand...))

It's not that simple. The Fourier transform coefficients will be completely random numbers and no reasonable conclusions can really be drawn.

 
Farnsworth:

It is not very clear how to build a coherent model of this mess.


Here look, there are "splashes" of decline left and 1-wave will be formed. After that, the correction, the rise of the pair will begin. How, this can be used, in your system, I do not know yet, but I know that the 32-day has a value, but I cannot explain it. True, I derived this figure myself, but the methods are so stupid and primitive that there is nothing to explain.

 
Farnsworth:

The name sounds familiar, can you give me a link to remind me?

Files:
mesa_98.zip  2339 kb
qtsig.zip  7 kb
 
Senx (note my Yorkshire accent :o). I'll be reading and thinking.
 
Farnsworth:
Senx (note my Yorkshire accent :o). I'll be reading and thinking.


If that's the case. cycle research institute. Have a look and see if you can find something useful for yourself.

https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=ru&langpair=en|ru&u=http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/cycles/cycles-analysis-overview.shtml&rurl=translate.google.ru&usg=ALkJrhhPM1qZ4J5jwJHcZ3dziWsFs1qX4w