Forum Annals: Quotes of the day - page 46
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A big Russian mercy!
The "Maybe we'll get lucky" branch of the Adviser, Yusuf again:
yosuf: It describes the historical data perfectly, but, as noted above, contrary to common sense, is incapable of adequate prediction beyond the current bar or it is impossible in principle, because we are not meant to know the future, there is a taboo that even (18) cannot overcome! On the other hand, where have we learned to predict the future - nowhere! Why do we think it is possible in forex? Therefore (18) reminds us - history can be described, but only depending on the past tense! That's why I agree with you partly on the issue of price versus time. The price is firmly dependent on the past tense and it turns out that we do not have the right, or rather, the opportunity, to judge the time so globally, because we are not fated to know the future, not only events, but also the time! And some successfully made "predictions" are nothing but a coincidence. Now the question is what to do? It is not necessary to do anything. One should only speculate, not predict.
Yusuf has found the secret of forex:
yosuf 26.12.2011 05:09
What is your approach if not a secret?
A secret indeed, as it can put a noose on forex and that is not desirable, why chop the bough you are sitting on. If traders find out about the approach they will massively resemble a snake swallowing its tail and all currencies will have to fluctuate within the spread as the indicator controls every tick, not to mention the last bar, as you can see from the above charts.
[...]
yosuf 26.12.2011 05:20
Comparison with predicting a football result is irrelevant because it is not up to the one making the prediction or betting on it. The market is different. Those who make a prediction and trade accordingly do influence the price. The price is the result of bids made by market participants. The question should be put like this. Is there a memory in the price process longer than one bar? To answer this question, let's carry out a simple survey of traders who trade manually or automatically. Please indicate which of you, when opening a position never looks at prices older than the current price.
Yusuf's thread:
yosuf 26.12.2011 17:09
Can you decipher it, I do not know. What does it mean, so far I see only that the sampling rate when data is not constant, or is it a hint at the analysis of the dynamics of indicator change from state to state
Next:
yosuf 26.12.2011 17:44
gpwr: I don't understand your conclusions very well. From the very beginning of this thread you have been saying that the market price is predictable by your regression formula (18). Then you see that the formula doesn't work and on this basis conclude that forex is unpredictable. And at the same time you intrigue everybody with your news that you've invented "another approach", that "will put a noose on Forex". Don't you think that this conclusion about unpredictability of forex and announcement of your new approach are contradictory? Forecasting forex is not always predicting the price at an arbitrary moment of time by a regression model. Judging by your last quote, your new approach falls into the "assuming" category. Long live the new "assuming" formula (18)! "Forex cannot be predicted, but it is possible to assume" (C) Yusuf.
Quite right, indeed in the beginning I started from the possibility to predict the market in any case. The results of indicator's work convinced me that it is not always so. There are situations when the market "closes" or "slows down", but sometimes it shows excess volatility at those moments, and the market seems to complete its development and the forecast line completely coincides with the current price and eveneach tick is able to bend the historical sample represented by the regression equation and the regression line wiggles as if at the command of the last tick, completely changing its configuration within the historical sample in order not to break the material balance. Let me be more cautious and say that the market is not always predictable. You should look at the indicator readings and judge whether it is possible to predict the active market. Better like this. It will be possible to observe this at the beginning, in the middle and at the end of the trading week. Let's forget about the new approach as a practically unrealizable project. Further observation of the indicator behaviour will clarify everything. Because I have got its corrected version quite recently and when I saw that it was not making predictions but just following the price, I got desperate and started searching for the reason of this phenomenon. Maybe I hit the moments of low market activity and made hasty conclusions. Again, comprehensive observation will show, as the market is multifaceted.
[...]
yosuf 26.12.2011 17:59
In the indicator it seems to be absent in calculation of such significant coefficients.
If you don't know the algorithm, you may use a lot of magic tricks, but if you don't know the algorithm, you may use a lot of tools to detect the necessary information.
Alexei, probably enough for him. He's more addicted to forex than a junkie. And at his age, that's hard to handle. There's a distinct Regulesta syndrome. Only doctors can help. Unfortunately, we can't.
The more he's contacted, the worse it's going to get. It's better not to talk to him about maths and forex. That way we drive his psyche into an even bigger crisis. He could collapse. I don't want anyone from this forum blaming him for it.
))) Beaten by stats, filthily abused by fantasy. // from the lawsuit
(as a replicator) .
Alexei, probably enough for him. He' s more addicted to forex than a junkie. And at his age, that's hard to handle. There's a distinct Regulesta syndrome. Only doctors can help. Unfortunately, we can't.
The more people correspond with him, the worse it will get. It's better not to talk to him about maths and forex. That way we drive his psyche into an even bigger crisis. He could collapse. I don't want anyone from this forum blaming him for it.
If you're a psychiatrist, this is not the forum to openly announce diagnoses.
The man is elderly, speaks poorly in Russian, in other threads do not flood as some, be human after all.
Perhaps it's time for Roche to step in.
He does not, his Russian is all right, and he writes quite competently. And in other threads he often comes up with offers to "work" with his indicator.
But I got it all, no more. I can not guarantee for others.
I'm moving this one here at tara's request. Honestly, I didn't mean it as a pun (sly fox that tara is):
10747
Are you a man? You are still at the very beginning, you still have a lot to learn. But I do not envy you.
Imho, just a notice of increased attention with a reminder of the local dislike of spam and group games of a non-sexual nature :)