Technical analysis - A scam for beginners? - page 11
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Yes! Learn kids, it's a professional :)
...TA has its roots in the nonsensical science of observing non-existent patterns...
... ...and on its branches more than one fortune has been chipped...
it's another matter by whom... By those who receive our blood money as a "deposit".
TA is a scam for beginners, calm down, folks...
Technical analysis - predicting future price movements based on an analysis of past price movements. And basta.
What trading methods do you know that do not use (even indirectly. FA uses past price value indirectly) past price value?
I only know of two (plum and profitable):
P.S. If you think of current prices as past prices, then arbitrage is also TA.
TA is a scam for newbies, take it easy, dear ones....
and no one was worried. This argument is eternal on the pages of this forum. The same avatars say the same things and make the same arguments.
IT'S AN ETERNAL STRUGGLE BETWEEN GOOD AND EVIL AND VICTORY IS IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!!!!!!
scared?
Technical analysis - predicting future price movements based on an analysis of past price movements. And basta.
What trading methods do you know that do not use (even indirectly. FA uses past price value indirectly) past price value?
I only know of two (plum and profitable):
P.S. If you think of current prices as past prices, then arbitrage is also TA.
Technical analysis - predicting future price movements based on an analysis of past price movements. And basta.
What trading methods do you know that do not use (even indirectly. FA uses past price value indirectly) past price value?
I only know of two (plum and profitable):
P.S. If you think of current prices as past prices, then arbitrage is also TA.
Everything is TA.
Stat-arbitrage is also TA. The very best.
One of two things:
- Either TA as the apotheosis of human scientific thought. And all the sciences are only particular manifestations of TA.
- Or narrow down your definition of TA!
Be modest, fellow traders, be modest!
Although I don't have as much experience as respected Sergey (Farnsworth), and I've been doing technical analysis for only three years (since I learned about FOREX). Nevertheless, I've made some observations (mainly with strategy tester) and believe that TA is not as hopeless as many people think. Here are my main claims:
1. technical analysis has a very limited predictive horizon. It can only realistically predict movement a few bars ahead, no more.
2. the calculation data windows do not make sense to do more than three five figures. Roughly speaking, what was 5-10 or more bars ago is irrelevant to what is happening now.
3. It is important to understand that the so-called TA figures are clearly traceable on anything from an accumulative coin flip chart to temperature dynamics. For example, if a clear five-wave Elliott wave pattern showed up only on markets and never on SB or weather charts, I would be the first to throw stones at those who would claim that Elliott waves don't work. But unfortunately Elliot waves are meaningless as they appear on anything and since they have no meaning, they cannot work. This also applies to all other TA formations like double top, triangle, head-shoulders, etc.
4. Before using a technical indicator, you have to clearly answer yourself the questions: "What exactly this indicator shows?", "What exactly I need to see in the price movement?", "Why exactly this indicator shows price deviations which I need to see?", "In which cases this indicator will give clear signals and in which cases it will be wrong?".
5. Filters. I do not think it is necessary to use more than one filter in any trading system. In special cases you can use two of them. As a rule, several indicators are selected based on the principle: "It showed a nice reversal here" and used together. As a result the non-working parts are gathered in a non-working system, which is approximated very well (which means the fitting on the history). Past that, any slight deviation breaks the whole TS.
6. Simplicity of approach. My belief that the simple moving average is not much worse than the integral of the linear regression slope or some polynomial smoothed price series. The effects of deviation of price movement from the normal SB movement should be visible with any, more or less adequate analysis tools, even visual ones. The effects should be observed with the help of any tools and any approaches.
From the above it becomes clear that TA has its roots in the nonsensical science of observing non-existent patterns. And to this day, more than anywhere else, these beliefs are strong in it. TA is like modern chemistry. It came from alchemy, a science whose aim was to find a way to turn stones into gold. And although alchemy is considered to be a pseudoscience, chemistry has made tremendous strides in mastering the world. It has made many interesting discoveries and changed the world around us dramatically. So has TA. Today TA is a precise and efficient science, a world ruled by automatic trading systems, exact calculations and simple mathematics. But along with it there are still strong old atavisms, the same "alchemy" of traders of the past. Books are still being written on it, and mainly this old TA forms our perverted ideas about the present and the modern.
Specifically, where should the poor peasant go?