BLODIUM strategy - Candle work! - page 3
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I read your strategy and this is what I want to say:
1) The 4 candlestick model is unlikely to work because the condition that 4 candlesticks and each of them more than n pips + timing, too blurred criterion for entry. 4 candlesticks with a certain number of points in a row can go either to one side or to the other, or may even go bullish bearish, etc., which in turn does not give the order to open it in the opposite direction.
2) If it happened that the condition of 4 candles has been fulfilled, and there was a movement, open an order (you calculate the system so that even a loss-making order will then cover a profit), well, first of all, how about the spread, which no one cancelled, and secondly, from the basic theory of market movements know that the movement will likely continue, rather than turn around and go in the opposite direction, which means that the probability of profit is reduced.
3) In addition to the body, candlesticks have shadows, which can sometimes be very large, and the larger the time frame, the shadow is more significant in points, what about the fact that a stop loss set will just catch a constant shadow on larger timeframes? If you increase the stop loss on larger timeframes, the loss will also increase and then it cannot be recovered.
4) Judging by the system, it is a long term, what about the commission when you move to a new day with an open trade? You do not consider it a loss?
Well and much more can be said, and on the entry system and the policy, the use of additional indicators or entry models, also do not guarantee a 100% guarantee of the direction of the movement, as it is all uncertain in the future.... As for the other two, if one or two times this system works 100%, then most of the time it will kill your deposit. It is easier to put 2 differently directed orders in the market, with the condition that if one closes unprofitable on the second to move profit.
1. Candles are determined by the parameters.
1.1The height of the candlestick (minimum height).
1.2Total number of pips per candlestick group (not less).
1.3Each candlestick in a group cannot roll back more than 50% of the previous one. (About stationarity and alternation - it does not play a big role for the entire trade, with a deposit of 10 000, only three orders will be used for each signal 0.1 lot, 0.15 lot, 0.22 lots, from 34 transactions on the euro yen for example worked on the plus 28 transactions on average - I can assure you and the risks are so small that it is acceptable) Now take 10 tools and catch possible matches on 10 tools, you sure get a month of 30 transactions for 100 dollars per transaction on average = 3000, and 5 negative or loss-making on average, which would equal from 300 to 1000 dollars, even if there are losses, which in practice is much less, you will normally earn at minimal risk. Who is not enough 3000 on a 10000 deposit, then you can increase the lots by 3 times and risk three times more.
The fact is that only on one instrument on a 15-minute chart we got 15 deals during a month
8 deals on 30 min timeframe
7 trades on an hour time frame
4 deals on 4 hour timeframe
Proceeding from this the total amount of transactions on the tool 34 transactions, 80% of transactions do not need a margin call, 20% need, I do not say that we should multiply the lot directly by 2, the factor of 1.5 is enough, the maximum number of orders on a margin call at me should not exceed 3 three orders and that if one order was not successfully closed at 0.1, the next order at 0.15, and at .0.23, that leads to 2 negative orders on 80 losses on everyone - the first order -80$, the second order -100$ total amount of losses -180, and profit sotalil 0.25õ160 points = 368$ - we deduct a loss of 180 and we receive = 180 profit, if there is a situation which kills on stop all three orders, we receive a loss of 368$ in a series, such situations will be from 100 transactions from 5- to 12, that in any case we have three times and more profit, than loss.
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Otherwise, you get an Expert Advisor with zero expected payoff minus spread outside the optimization limits.
Regarding sigma you need to check your information in practice for dynamic operation.
Regarding the 0 expectation is not true - everything is checked on the start EA, so far everything I have said fits, your statement on sigmas should be checked and possibly added, but I would say that without sigma it works fine.
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Further His Majesty Martin, just in case degree 2 in fivefold false entry increases the initial lot by 32 times, at a stop target of 80 pips a decent drawdown, this is only for the last order, Martin should definitely be excluded.
Martin is included in the system for needs that may arise, if you put restrictions on the martin then there is no problem, plus a normal martin works without stops on each order, a stop works on a series.... my situation is different.
At 1.5x and limit 3-4 orders, stretch the distance between orders as best as possible, and limit the number of orders helps to limit losses in an emergency and close at a loss, I can not say 100% that every deal will be plus or I cheat, I just want to say that even though there will be losing trades, we risk on each deal of the deposit no more than 1-3% and profit on each trade from 3-9%, and profitable deals greater than 80%, mathematics.
You gave the reasoning may be correct, at least partly, but you started from the example that I gave above - it's just an example, let's do this - you upload the screens here for the euro yen 3 pieces, and tell me where the system does not work - you can take any period, or name the days on which the system takes a loss or does not work, I in turn will dig up the history again for six months and say which days worked and on which timeframe .... You check it out.
I read your strategy and this is what I want to say:
1) The 4 candlestick model is unlikely to work, because the condition that 4 candles and each of them more than n pips + timing, too blurred criterion for entry. 4 candlesticks with a certain number of points in a row can go either to one side or to the other, or may even go bullish bearish, etc., which in turn does not give the order to open it in the opposite direction.
2) If it happened that the condition of 4 candles has been fulfilled, and there was a movement, open an order (you calculate the system so that even a loss-making order will then cover a profit), well, firstly, at the expense of the spread, which no one cancelled, and secondly, from the basic theory of market movements known that the begun movement is likely to continue, rather than turn around and go in the opposite direction, which means that the probability of profit is reduced.
3) In addition to the body, candlesticks have shadows, which can sometimes be very large, and the larger the time frame, the shadow is more significant in points, what about the fact that set a stop loss will just catch a constant shadow on larger timeframes? If you increase the stop loss on larger timeframes, the loss will also increase and then it cannot be recovered.
4) Judging by the system, it is a long term, what about the commission when you move to a new day with an open trade? You do not consider it a loss?
Well and much more can be said, and on the entry system and the policy, the use of additional indicators or entry models, also do not guarantee a 100% guarantee of the direction of the movement, as it is all uncertain in the future.... If one or two times this system works for 100%, then most of the time it will kill your deposit. It is easier to put 2 differently directed orders in the market, with such a condition that if one closes unprofitable on the second to move profit.
1. this is only an example for 4 candlesticks. i will use up to 15 candlesticks. I can already set my settings to detect a sharp movement down or up, bullish or bearish - how? Every minute the EA will count how many pips have passed from the last minute, so it will determine the trend or sharp movement, depending on the movement and will work BUY or SELL.
2. If 4 candlesticks suit us according to the parameters, and everything is OK, the Expert Advisor will enter the market and if it has made a mistake, it will add 1.5, not more than 3 orders and if all three orders are closed by a stop loss, we stop the series and wait for the next signal. This is one example of the situation and there are some more. The loss on a series of 368 on 3 orders, yes such situations are present in the market but error of an entrance is very small, at 10 entries, the robot is mistaken 2-3 times, but we bear a loss from 3 errors once. The spread is not a problem. 3.
3. This is a separate issue, there are also variants to avoid shadows. First, we have additional filters that look for the current candle to roll back more than 50% of the previous one. If this happens, the robot zeroes out the candle and starts to count for a new one, it simply will not enter the market if the shadow is big, and now it checks the filter so that for example 4 candles were not less than 70% of the total number of points - that is the height of 4 candles in total.
Further, if we do enter the market, but after that the shadows, hairpins, etc. started running in the market, we will get either a series of losses or non-market quotes. If it is not the market, the broker should just clean up, If you're saying that a stop on the first or second order will be triggered all the time - it's OK, the next order that just compensates for the loss by 2 or 3 times, depending on the risks of the adjuster, in my case I either get a profit with no big shadows or an unprofitable series.
If you use large timeframes, like 1 day or a week, you can expect to enter the market 1 minute later than 4 candles, in other words, once the candle was formed and it had a shadow, then we will enter the market a little later, that's all....
4. The EA can take into account both spread and commission, swap is not a problem. The only thing with swaps it's not done automatically, I haven't got to that yet - sorry.
At the end you're wrong, perhaps because I didn't explain the point well - but in the first response to your comments, I indicated that the EA will determine entry to buy or sell... no problem there.
Addition - each tool has its own settings and its own optimization, which I need, I agree that it is not quite dynamic in the ideal, but so far nothing dynamic and ideal has been invented...
The most important thing is that this strategy works and makes profit.
The settings for the buy on the 15 time frame are 4 candles for the EUR Yen, for 30 minutes it is also 4 candles, for 1 hour 5 candles, for 4 hours 4 candles, for each timeframe all its own.
For other currencies or futures, similar combinations, there are futures that allow you to determine the reversal of the trend.... of course there are many other ways, indicators or whatnot or strategies...
The essence of the matter is that I don't want to analyze all day long or watch the indicators until they find market entry, I want my EA to search and enter the market, and then I will just correct or modify it. That will come later.
Remote strategy .Well, it's been a few days and we see that the deposit is steadily growing - all is good.
http://www.onix-trade.net/?act=monitoring_stat&xid=21852&lang=ru
Let's try to bring it up to 6000 in 2 months - on an incremental basis with refinancing.
Of course, it is possible to write it, but it's a lot of work with so many parameters, especially if you take into account that it will be a multicurrency...
And it will take a lot of time to check its correctness...
Although the code is not much longer than a usual EA with parameters in a file...
..., a few days have passed and the deposit is growing steadily - all is well.
Stable is when it grows for a few years or at least a few months. And here we have 10 days of trading with 19 trades. And when the author believes in stability, the deposit is charged not for $6. There are no stops, instead of them martin. Good luck to you, with this kind of trading all hope is on it.
I said it's good, 2 months will pass and we'll see, no martin, maximum 3 trades, stops are used only when it reaches the risk level, if you use stop at initial setting, the DC will trap stops, you probably know this... And 6 dollars shows only because I want to show that you can enter and exit the market with 90% accuracy...
If news is over then we recalculate everything and enter the market again if there is a reason for that. If your strategy does not use errors, good luck.
I said it's good, in 2 months we'll see, no martin, max number of trades is 3, stops are used, only when it reaches the risk level, if you use stop at initial setup, then the DC will catch stops, you probably know this... And I showed you $6 only because I want to show that you can enter and exit the market with 90% accuracy...
i've been using pentaminoes to get my deposit up!
This TS does not use any minutes, it's all mathematics - it's not a candlestick pattern. Perhaps I poorly described the post, that's why everyone confuses the candlestick model by timeframe with distant, I will try to fix it in the near future.
1. The candlestick model works on timeframes only because this is the easiest way for me.
2. The remote model is working only on the distance of orders from the market, 32 pips, 63 pips, 87 pips, there is an error. i use 2 back-up orders for this reason, to leave the market faster before the news, 3-5 out of 10 trades with an error..... This is monitoring of the account over a distance and not timeframes.
If you follow MM rules with any TS, you should always be as calculated with an error margin, my TS is not perfect, nothing is perfect in the world, but we all strive for perfection ...
it's already today