What happened to Doe last night? - page 6
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Не "сотрудник цену написал", а трейдер выставил заявку на продажу в 16 миллиардов, вместо миллионов, возможно, именно колёсиком подкрутив.
This, too, is the unofficial version of what happened. I do not believe that a bid for such a large volume of sales can be so easily and carelessly put out by irresponsibly slipping the wheel and getting the result wrong by a couple or three orders of magnitude. Surely sales worth billions go through numerous checks.
The bid was correct. If it wasn't, the selling wouldn't have continued on Friday and the index would have been around 11,000 by now, as it was before.
Another thing: Volatility increased sharply before Black Thursday, meaning the system had already started to "resonate", preparing for imbalances. So the system already knew about the coming collapse. What kind of error?
And another thing: the execution of 61.8% started much earlier, on April 26, when the index reached that target, - and not on the "black Thursday".
IMHO.
Вы не знаете: 5-6 мая - дни обострения у определённых типов людей. Я не шучу, это серьёзно. Подробнее не буду.
Если у кого из ваших родственников, друзей, знакомых и т.п. произошел в этот день нервный срыв, то рекомендую в будущем держаться
от такого человека подальше.
Sergei, could you elaborate on the days of aggravation, could you put it in private, because I know someone who is prone, unfortunately, among the household.
Это тоже неофициальная версия случившегося. Не верю, что заявку на такой большой объем продаж можно так легко и беззаботно выставить, безответственно промахнувшись колесиком и ошибившись в результате на пару-тройку порядков. Наверняка продажи на миллиарды проходят многочисленные проверки.
Заявка была верной. Если бы это было не так, то продажи не продолжились бы в пятницу, а индекс уже был бы в районе 11000, как и раньше.
With what is happening in Europe, the index cannot be "as it was before". Before there was at least hope for localisation of the problems, now it is obvious that it is not working, that Greece alone will not do. The fall on Thursday was because it is subconsciously expected. The wrong bid, even if there was one, is only the trigger of the fall, but not the cause. The fall on Friday continued precisely on the continuation of the negative-expectation mood, even in spite of the good news in the States themselves.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying too: there is no mistake, and if there is, it's not the cause.
The Dow is ready for the second wave of the crisis. It has already started - not on Thursday, but on April 26.
сидит значит сотрудник Nasdaq и от руки вырисовывает нулики на своих котировках, а я то думал, что на бирже как на "Форексе для народа" - смотришь в пп, считаешь в %, "мышей в терминале клац-колесиком подкрутил цену" - и вот он отложник стоит, тяжело им там на Nasdaq :D
In fact, this is what has happened. Since the chairs on stock exchanges are owned by market participants, they have come up with a new scam to lure dough from gullible traders without a chair.
In fact, on any stock exchange there is a so-called technical index (not to be confused with an index asset). As soon as this very index reaches a deliberately set level below the plinth, trading stops.
Clearly, there was a collapse within 15 minutes, but trading did not stop. Now there are statements that some trades will be cancelled. Obviously, those who were in profit but not in the chair will be cancelled. So will those who lost while sitting on the chair.
To distract the public's attention from the fact that the technical index did not work and trading was not stopped, which is the responsibility of the co-owners of the platforms, i.e. those who are sitting on chairs, a lot of stories were invented, from robot pests, to traders who allegedly opened large deals with many zeros.
In short, all this American stock trading is nothing but bubbles and scams. All done in such a way that only a certain circle of people are always in profit, regardless of the situation.
Just remember the situation with Medoff, who openly cheated for many years, despite the fact that the SEC received a flood of complaints from victims. The SEC turned a blind eye to all of this because they were in on the take. But the SEC kept a lid on it, until Mehdoff became very rich and got into the coffers of a select few.
Кейсианство, возможно, плохо. Но что лучше? Желательно уже опробованное и положительно зарекомендовавшее себя в условиях глобальных кризисов. Есть такое? Или только теории? А с кейсианством худо-бедно, но несколько кризисов пережили.
Кроме экономического, есть и психологический аспект, который давно описан в приложении к управляющим инвест-фондами, - "стадное поведение". Применимо и к политикам от экономики. Если другие страны накачивают рынок кэшем, то и ...тамия должна делать тоже самое. Т.к. если ты кейсианствовал, но ничего не получилось, то никто не осудит, так как у всех одинаково плохо. А если ты попробовал что-то своё, и ничего не получилось, то тебя все будут пинать - что же ты не делал как все. Никто не хочет быть белой вороной.
I agree. So far, apart from "throwing money from a helicopter", they have not come up with anything better. In Russia they have tried something (and I don't think they have even tried - not doing it is self-made))), but all the same - here they have started taking old cars and some other little things...
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Keynesianism. I understand that this is a typo, but those who have had/will have crisis days may think of something else. E. Casey, for example. Then we will definitely be considered a total nutcase, and those who think so will be hospitalized.
Доу готов ко второй волне кризиса. Она уже началась - не в четверг, а 26 апреля.
Because of the phoebe? What about looking into a crystal ball? Carefully examine the coffee grounds? I'm willing to discuss the real factors, but phoebes are for grail scholars and other masters of unconventional sex.
In Europe, of course, pop, but it's not going to pull on the second wave of the crisis. The increased volatility is from people thinking "aren't we running too fast". Markets have always recovered faster than the real sector after a crisis, but this time too fast. Perhaps it is because the people were afraid of being too late to start the recovery.
Это тоже неофициальная версия случившегося. Не верю, что заявку на такой большой объем продаж можно так легко и беззаботно выставить, безответственно промахнувшись колесиком и ошибившись в результате на пару-тройку порядков. Наверняка продажи на миллиарды проходят многочисленные проверки.
Заявка была верной. Если бы это было не так, то продажи не продолжились бы в пятницу, а индекс уже был бы в районе 11000, как и раньше.
Еще: перед "черным четвергом" волатильность резко увеличилась, т.е. система уже начала "входить в резонанс", готовиться к дисбалансу. Значит, система уже знала о грядущем обвале. Какая ошибка?
И еще: отработка 61.8% началась гораздо раньше, 26 апреля, когда индекс достиг этой цели, - а не в "черный четверг".
IMHO.
What about the other 30 companies on which DJIA is based? (I think there are 30 of them).
PS1: there was a very good "stochastic resonance" thread here a long time ago, I think something similar happened, a very weak "all bad" signal was amplified many times by "noise". Eh, I'm stuck with the stochastic resonance based process model, but I'm sure the thing is right :o)