What is it? - page 17
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The expectation is the average of all possible options. If you say that you are only interested in options when after the first 1000 was 600, you make options that do not pass through this point impossible. The MO changes accordingly.
And where it lies, I don't remember anymore, it was a long time ago :)
It turns out: As many people, as many variants of pCO: Which formula is used to calculate expected payoff? But your variant is absent here.
But this notion is a fundamental one in trading. I will have to check our chimes here too!
It turns out: As many people, so many variants to calculate the IO: Which formula is used to calculate the expected payoff? But your variant is absent here as well.
And this concept is a fundamental one in trading. We'll have to check our chimes here as well!
Yes, the formula is the same. The events are different.
You counted probabilities for event 1200/800 i.e. P(A1 && A2)
And you were talking about event A2|A1 (conditional probability of event A2 provided event A1 has already happened)
If events are independent then P(A1|A2)=P(A1)
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C_(%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%B9)
Yes, yes, just about to hint that Bayes could have helped the father of Russian democracy...
It's unclear why the professors couldn't help. Well, such professors, then?
После первой серии у Вас уже состоялись 600 событий. Матожидание для следующей серии - 500. 600 + 500 = 1100.
P.S. Понимаете, после того как Вы выиграли в лотерею, Вам уже наплевать какая у этого была вероятность.
Do you honestly believe that the lottery has a memory of you?
Do you honestly believe that the lottery has a memory of you?
He wrote correctly. The fact is that the outcome of the event that took place in this case is known with certainty.
Он верно написал. Дело в том, что исход состоявшегося события в данном случае известен достоверно.
If the roulette wheel or coin is fair - the expectation cannot change.
And Michurinsky puts it like this.
Tossed once, heads.
two - eagle. Yeah. Since we know it's 50/50, but remember there are already two eagles, (2+1/2)/3=0.83!
The doctorate is next to the nobel.
And why 50/50? We can see it's 100% eagle!
So the expectation is 1.
;)
If roulette or coin is fair - The expectation cannot change.
We can't be sure of that. The coin may have a hidden defect, the consequence of which would be a shift in the MO.
I read about some mechanic who made money playing roulette based on his knowledge that there is no wheel without eccentricity. That is, a wheel without eccentricity cannot be made and if the eccentricity is large, it leads to a shift in the MO of the outcomes.
Если рулетка или монетка честная - Матожидание не может изменится.
А по Мичурински получается примерно так.
Бросили раз - орёл.
два - орёл. Ага. раз знаем что 50/50, но помним, что уже два орла. то (2+1/2)/3=0,83!
Докторская с нобелевской рядом.
И почему 50/50? мы же видим, что 100% орёл!
Значит матожидание 1.
;)
Yeah, it's a shame that SchNobel neglected the mathematicians.
Or did he, on the contrary, do a good deed?
;)
Если рулетка или монетка честная - Матожидание не может изменится.
А по Мичурински получается примерно так.
Бросили раз - орёл.
два - орёл. Ага. раз знаем что 50/50, но помним, что уже два орла. то (2+1/2)/3=0,83!
Докторская с нобелевской рядом.
И почему 50/50? мы же видим, что 100% орёл!
Значит матожидание 1.
;)
You're an academic, Lysenko. Do you seriously believe that by throwing two eagles each you have a chance of having a 1.5 average on those three shots? After the third shot, you'll either have 2 eagles or 3. The average for these series would be 2.5.
Has no one ever explained to you that probability theory is just the science of why 50/50 if we can see that it's 100% eagle?
Do
you honestly believe the lottery has a memory of you?
Fear not, today's lottery will not cancel your winnings from yesterday's lottery. And don't expect it to cancel my winnings from yesterday :).
Читал про какого-то механика, который делал деньги на игре в рулетку на основании своих знаний о том, что не существует колеса без эксцентриситета. Т.е. колесо без эксцентричности изготовить невозможно и, если эксцентричность велика, она приводит к смещению МО исходов.
Sounds like an urban legend from pro-casino PR people. It's not sweeping enough to overlap the spread (zero). =)