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Not really on topic. Comment from the DOW feed -
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Recommended to buy New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair as it falls - BarCap
April 1 /Dow Jones/. The New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair declined on Thursday following the release of an International Monetary Fund report. The report estimates the New Zealand currency is 10%-25% overvalued and could fall in value when the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. Barclays Capital notes that despite Thursday's decline, the New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair is still in the middle of a declining range between 0.69 and 0.7130. The bank recommends buying the pair as it falls towards the low end of the range in April, given the pair's seasonal dynamics. Based on data since 1971, analysts note that the pair's median return in April is one of the most significant of the year. The New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair now trades at 0.7059.
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Curious note on "the pair's median return in April ... " !
I can't find the seasonal trend graph for 6N or NZDUSD for the last few years on the web !
I`ve been knocked off my feet! Maybe someone has it?
I will ask you to post it.
As a reward this person will receive a promising (with 89% profit probability) April market entry for a commodity market instrument!
Где вы берете сезонные тенденции ?
I'm just surfing the net. Wherever I can find something.Sometimes a friend of mine, who has a paid "subscription" to a famous specialized website, sends me
Moore Research Center, Inc.
http://www.mrci.com/
// There are some free charts there as well.
Speaking of trends!
Not really on topic. Comment from the DOW feed -
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Recommend buying New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair as it falls - BarCap
April 1 /Dow Jones/. The New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair declined on Thursday following the release of an International Monetary Fund report. The report estimates that the New Zealand currency is 10%-25% overvalued and could fall in value when the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. Barclays Capital notes that despite Thursday's decline, the New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair is still in the middle of a declining range between 0.69 and 0.7130. The bank recommends buying the pair as it falls towards the low end of the range in April, given the pair's seasonal dynamics. Based on data since 1971, analysts note that the pair's median return in April is one of the most significant of the year. The New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair is now trading at 0.7059.
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Interesting note on "the pair's median return in April ..." !
I can't find the seasonal trend graph for 6N or NZDUSD for the last few years on the web !
I`ve been running out of ideas! Maybe someone has it?
I will ask you to post it.
As a reward this person will receive a promising (89% profit probability) April market entry for a commodity market instrument!
Just open a daily chart of the pair and watch the movement in April over the last years - it seems to me everything becomes clear
No, it's not quite the right one. But I'll have a look.
Look in the private line, hippy.
No, it's not quite the right one. But I'll take a look.
>> thank you
Something cotton is in no hurry to follow the seasonal trend...
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"April 1, 2010, 8:04 pm. The current week will definitely be remembered by investors, although it's not over yet (tomorrow is a holiday in the US). It will be remembered primarily for strong movements in the commodities market.
.....
Now for the agricultural markets. The inflation of the bubble is starting to be transmitted to this market as well.
Cotton yesterday showed volatility which is rare for the last few days. And trading volumes were about 2 times the average of the last 5 days.
The rise in cotton was rather strange, as there was no bullish data in the USDA report on planting for the 2010 season. Perhaps the factor of the last day of the quarter had an impact.
Short positions, of which there were many in the run-up to the report, were being closed. As a result, cotton grew momentarily up to 3%, by the end of the day on high volumes a part of growth was suppressed by sales.
Technically, cotton is weak. However, a return to 83 cents on the May contract would change the disposition and might send the price above 84 cents.
As long as there is so much liquidity and no fear, commodity markets will appreciate on inertia. That said, we must remember that cotton lost 10 cents in early January during a period of stock market weakness.
But cotton is naturally also affected by the Chinese currency theme. China is an active importer of cotton." (c)
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Любопытное замечание по "срединной доходности пары в апреле ..." !
Никак не могу найти в инете график сезонный тенденции по 6N или NZDUSD за посл. годы!
С ног сбился ! Может у кого есть?
So you do it yourself. Take weekly or monthly prices and average over the entire history. This is seasonality - i.e. average price for all January, average for all February, etc. The right thing to do would be to normalise prices before averaging, for example, by taking the % yield rather than the price itself.
But just now I realised that I don't know what the expression means:
"the pair's median return" ?
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.............................Seasonal Overview.....................................
"Cocoa prices tend to follow the harvest cycle of the crop. In January, cocoa that was harvested in September and October is available on the world market resulting in a weighting off of prices at the start of the year (January and February). Generally sees March cocoa prices slightly higher as the market tends to operate with excessive pessimism. April marks the end of the main crop harvest and tends to see the final price gap. In the absence of the May harvest, prices tend to be towards the strong side, in cooperation with "sold" conditions. June and July see weakness due to mid-harvest crops and August heat tends towards buoy prices. September and October is traditionally the worst time of year for the price of cocoa, while waiting for the main harvest presses on prices, while November and December usually see rallies due to harvest delays and the threat of disease.
Most of the major rallies in the price of cocoa can be attributed to harvest delays or to distress and pestilence. Cocoa plants are most vulnerable to these delays and forces of nature in May, August and at the end of the year (November and December)." (from - Commodity Trading)
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Current chart and seasonal ( 5 and 15 year) price lines - in Fig. :
"No particular developments in the cocoa market, but according to the BNP bank, the world will have a surplus of 170,000 tonnes of cocoa this year.
At the same time, the cocoa season 2010/11 is expected to have a deficit of 48 thousand tonnes with production of 3.58 million tonnes.
At the moment, we can expect the next important level of $3000 per ton, subject to declines in stock indices and commodity markets in general. In this environment we would not rule out a drop as low as $2900/tonne. /from EuroTrust/" (February 2010)
"....Agricultural markets are bouncing back, again driven by the same factors. For example? As promised by BNP Paribas, cocoa bounced back to around $3000/tonne, after which a new fall should start."(from, - 01.04.2010)
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I should add, that there are cocoa ICE and EURONEXT (CN0) in mt4 B.
I got "burned" a lot while opening positions, because on one of these places in mt4 B. they take exorbitant spread (asc-bid) ! Which exceeds the range of daily movement! I don't remember which one of them....
Happy Holy Resurrection Day!
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It's a sin to work on Christ's resurrection. But with a little bit of thinking, maybe we can...
Let's look at the grains. Everyone - who is interested in "this business" - noticed a significant drop in prices on Wednesday, at the exit of the report...
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"US wheat "collapsed" under pressure from seeding data and corn and soybean stocks.
US wheat exchanges collapsed on Wednesday after the release of the US Department of Agriculture's wheat, corn and soybean planting acreage forecast as well as its March 01 inventory estimates. Traders assessed new data on wheat as relatively neutral, but figures on corn and soybeans were exclusively bearish. Under pressure from these two markets, wheat quotations fell sharply.
Yesterday's USDA forecast for wheat, maize and soybean areas and stocking estimates for these crops as of 01 March was not only of purely US, but also of international significance. European wheat exchanges also reacted with a decline.
Additional pressure on the soybean market has been and will continue to be exerted by news from Argentina that an agreement has been reached to end the port workers' strike. This means the resumption of port operations and a record crop of soybeans and derived products from Argentina entering the world market in increasing quantities.
The fall in US agricultural markets has also dragged down European exchanges...." (from, 01/04/2010)
ZW (syn) - wheat, ZC (green) - corn, ZS (red) - soybean, ZM (brown) - soybean meal, ZL (azure) - soybean oil
However:
" Aslight recovery followed Wednesday's severe fall in the US wheat market. Traders felt the market was too "oversold". On closing short positions, the coming May US wheat quotations rose slightly.
...Decline in grain prices on the world market will lead to a reduction of areas planted in 2010/11 MY - this was one of the conclusions reached by the US Department of Agriculture in its new report published on 31st March. The countries in the northern hemisphere were the most affected.
The region in question includes the USA, two-thirds of Africa, Europe and Asia. Here the sowing campaign starts in May-June and the prolonged price downward trend is hardly encouraging optimism among farmers. The consistent fall in cereal prices followed an overproduction crisis - the world's cereal stocks are oversupplied and supply exceeds demand...
In other words, it seems reasonable to maintain the bearish ZM/ZL (ZS/ZL) spread for another week.The reopening of ports in Argentina following the end of a 10-day dockers' strike will result in an additional significant increase in soybean and meal exports from South America.
Asfor soybean oil exports, its growth is not so evident due to China's complaints about the quality of oil supplied from Argentina. Recall that China is the world's largest importer of soybean oil and Argentina is the largest exporter with a global export share of over 50%......" (from, 2/04/2010)
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ZMK0/ZLK0, M30