GOLD in a couple of weeks >1000 ? - page 2
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Gold is overbought against the dollar, I recommend to wait for the reversal to short
Not so fast. GS thought so too and gained a wild amount of shorts on gold and especially silver. They did it for nothing. The problem is that China has refused to buy treasures and no amount of negotiation by Geithner has helped. The decision has been made. It means that real domestic inflation will finally start in the States (it used to be curbed just by buying China - treasures) and China will start buying gold. While real demand for monetary gold from the main consumer - India - has dropped several times over, marinating huge reserves (China alone has $1 trillion of them) out of paper into monetary gold or into gold futures - will drive the price up to USD 2500-3000. This will be a new bubble on a global scale. It started on 16-September 2009, the day after Obama blurted out "next time..."
In fact, other traders on US pro sites also agree with this analysis.
Not so fast. GS thought so too and gained a wild amount of shorts on gold and especially silver. They did it for nothing. The problem is that China has refused to buy treasures and no amount of negotiation by Geithner has helped. The decision has been made. This means that real domestic inflation will finally start in the States (it used to be curbed just by buying China - treasures) and China will start buying gold. While real demand for monetary gold from the main consumer - India - has declined several times over, marinating huge reserves (China alone has $1 trillion) out of paper into monetary gold or into gold futures - will drive the price up to USD 2500-3000. This will be a new bubble on a global scale. It started on 16-September 2009, the day after Obama blurted out "next time..."
In fact other traders on US pro sites agree with this analysis.
I might be wrong about the shorts, but I disagree about USD 2500-3000
I may be wrong about the shorts, but I disagree about USD 2500-3000
GS is a big company, with a lot of clients paying attention to it. It will not give its shorts just like that, I suppose (or maybe it will, they do not earn much on trading anyway, it became uninteresting for them, they earn more on bailout). So it will probably be a hard fight until 1100.
- Yesterday, the IMF said it will sell 400 tons of gold from its reserves, but they promise to do it gradually, so as not to collapse the market. let's see.
Well, everyone at the IMF is related to GS - both figuratively and literally. That 400 tonnes is $13bn. This is enough to bring down the price a bit and cover GS shorts without a loss.
Especially since China is SECOND interested in gold so far, it can be bought at any time at least at some price. On the other hand, China is FIRST interested in rare earth elements and metals because without them China's industrial production and export will simply die. So I guess China will negotiate with GS, wait a bit with a full transition to gold, the IMF will help GS relatives cover the shorts, and GS will help China buy all the palladium and other rare earth futures. The only problem with this scheme is that if even AlexEro on the MQL forum knows about this situation, so do the big uncles-private investors with a trillion dollars, too. And they may decide to risk buying gold before GS covers the shorts. Well there are more nuances...
400 tonnes is $13bn.
Here's a pro trader on one of the forums recently who aptly said :
"A word of advice from 34 years of dealing with gold and silver ------ Don`t count your money until you have sold and you have your profits in hand.
Things can turn on a dime."
(in the sense of hinting that at 3,000 you won't sell it to anyone)