Testing real-time forecasting systems - page 17
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I wonder if anyone even remembers this prediction on ginger ^____^
What is your prediction for gold over the longer term, say 3-4 months ahead?
eeeh, americans, how easy it is for them - give me the indices and templa to use.... is it okay that i have almost every script remade for a fee, ..... and that's two main the two without which the weather forecasts in Africa are not remade ... and the money is at least 60 American rubles for this.... they show the future, you need to rack your brains for a month to determine the conditions for sampling the construction of a Fibo fractal and the structure.... and that's just wrong ...... OK, let's not talk about sad things....
gpwr писал(а) >>
What is your prediction for gold over the longer term, say 3-4 months ahead?
unfortunately because of what i mentioned above i can't make predictions beyond a couple of daysMonday has passed and it's time to review the results. The forecast was just perfect! In fact, what was the forecast, so to say not formally - that every 15 minutes we will get the values (H+L)/2. And what was the result? The prediction came true completely - for every 15 minutes there is data!!! :о)
But seriously, making a forecast on Monday weekend is not the most thankful thing, as a rule it all gets spoiled by the gap at the beginning of Monday. It is extremely difficult to identify the model, and using it to determine the statistically possible realization (structure change occurs). But some status levels and reversal levels can be identified, but it is all about the order, and as a consequence of the order error - large drawdowns.
Unfortunately, there is no descriptor graphics in MathCAD, so I have to "trace" some plots by eye. Below is a probability field with superimposed price movement:
Now I'm testing some variants of identification, I should get better, and a little later I'll try to make predictions closer to the end of the week, and with a condition that the gaps are acceptable.
to NEKSUS
I have a suggestion, maybe to change the subject, because it just hurts the ears.
to NEKSUS
I have a suggestion, maybe we should change the subject, because it stings.
can be changed as well, suggestions?
Can we change it, suggestions?I suggest to call it Trader's Corner.) Better yet, let's call it Real Time System Testing. We may make it a little more precise: "Testing Systems in Real Time: Predictions and Discussions". I think it would be better.
I suggest we call it "Trader's Corner", just kidding :o) Better yet, "Testing Systems in Real Time". You may be a little more precise: "Testing Systems in Real Time: Predictions and Discussions". That seems better to me.
How about "Testing Price Prediction Systems" mmmmm.... Crazy, right?
(grasn, look into the personal section).
how about "Testing Price Prediction Systems" mmmm.... delusional, huh?
(grasn, look in the personal column)
No, it's not insane at all. There is some hidden, even somewhat arcane meaning to it. It's like we're saying we're not in the business of predicting the demand for galoshes. Yes! You're absolutely right, that needs to be stressed especially. We can easily mislead people and then have a long and tedious time explaining what we mean. We need to write out in the title everything we are going to predict, carefully, every term, and don't forget to separate them with commas.
:о)
(I'll look into it now)
No, it's not delusional at all. There is some hidden, even somewhat secret meaning to it. It is as if we are saying that we are not forecasting the demand for galoshes. Yes! You're absolutely right, that needs to be stressed especially. We can easily mislead people and then have a long and tedious time explaining what we mean. We need to write out in the title everything we are going to predict, carefully, every term, and don't forget to separate them with commas.
:о)
(I'll have a look now)
So it's defined "Testing of Price Movement Forecasting Systems"?
>> so it's decided "Testing Price Prediction Systems"?
I already wrote it, I'll try again: "Real Time System Testing".
It's your thread, so the final decision is yours.
:о)
Addendum:
All right, I say we come to a consensus. Let's say Real-Time Prediction Systems Testing. How's that?