Paper "AMERO" will replace the dollar by spring!? - page 8
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Political analyst Mikhail Leontiev: "The dollar has only a few months left to walk".
The economist, columnist for Channel One and editor-in-chief of Profil magazine told KP about why the U.S. currency is rising if the centre of the crisis is in the United States, when and how the global financial storm will end, and what to do about mortgages
Larisa KAFTAN, AP Photo. - 26.02.2009
America has no doctor for itself
- Michael, why has the economic crisis turned out to be so powerful?
- The current crisis is not just a cyclical one, which happens, say, once every hundred years. It is a systemic crisis of the world's financial and political institutions, that is, a crisis of the world order. The economic cause of the crisis is the huge debts of the main economic regulator, the backbone country of the entire global economy - America. And the huge unsecured issue of the dollar, the world's main national currency. But look at their anti-crisis measures! More money printing and debt accumulation. That is treating the crisis by exacerbating its causes. But you cannot treat alcoholism with more doses of alcohol. There is no precedent for such a cure in nature.
- But if the American economy is in such a dismal state of impasse, how has it managed for decades to be the world's most powerful nation, the equal of all?
- The current world crisis, which originated in America, is a crisis of economics of parasitism. Parasitism could not last forever. After the Second World War, the United States, which had become a dominant power thanks to its real successes in economy and politics, has made it possible for itself to live at the expense of the rest of the world. To become a consumer of the world. This suited China, which, thanks to American capital, had built a powerful economy. And Russia, which, thanks to the Americans, had the most powerful conjuncture for its energy products. Now the American economy of parasitism is coming to an end. If there were forces in the world interested in the collapse of the system, it would come sooner. The fact that all the "relatives" sincerely do not want a cancer patient to die does not guarantee his recovery. And the opportunities to prolong the agony were enormous.
An important indicator that this crisis is systemic is the inability of the system to respond adequately, to treat it. This is very similar to what happened in the USSR. It wasn't so much the state of the Soviet economy in terms of the quality of labor, intellectual and technological resources as it was the inability of the Soviet system to adequately respond to the challenges, to reform in a positive way.
- And Barack Obama is not going to pull the States out of the crisis?
- Who is going to give it to him? America does not have a doctor: No one can prescribe it a cure and make it apply. The United States created all of its problems for itself. Even today, America is like a sheep that is running towards a cliff. And the stronger the sheep, the harder the blow. America is still printing unsecured money. It is the same as our '98 GKOs and MMMs. There is no difference.
Just in time to pop the currency bubble
- So why is the dollar going up in price?
- This is the classic picture of a speculative bubble. You remember when oil went up in price - that was an oil bubble too.
- Will the dollar collapse?
- In a matter of months - the fingers of one hand are enough to show the timing of this dollar bubble inflating. And I don't know what else can be inflated after the dollar bubble bursts. Nothing else. America is unique in that it can credit itself with money it draws on itself. However, this story cannot last indefinitely. America is now trying to escape from the Great Depression of 1929. Back then there was a deflationary shock, the collapse of the financial system, a sudden halt to production, enormous unemployment and then a long stagnation. To avoid this nightmare, they started inflating the economy with money. And this method translates the process of one-step decline into a prolonged degradation. Only even rougher. If the U.S. economy suffered great damage in 1929, but the settlement system remained intact, then what is happening now will destroy the settlement system. There will be a collapse of all the monetary systems built into the American one. If anyone can get out of it and create their own non-issue, secured currency, they will win.
But so far no one has been able to do that.
In fact, there is crisis in America too: the prices are falling, but the buyers are not increasing...
When will the crisis end?
- Is the end of the crisis visible beyond some hazy horizon, most importantly for Russia?
- For a general economic recovery to begin, the American system must collapse itself. Because there is nothing left to oppose to it right now - there is no other global economy in the world apart from the American one.
We have failed and have not had time to create a functioning domestic market. Our financial authorities, unfortunately, do not even know how to do what the Americans can do - support the real economy by injecting money. The banking system has been supported, but the real sector has failed. Now the task for the authorities is at least to maintain a functioning, sustainable economic system by the time it becomes clear that we can get out of the crisis. That is the tactic. The strategy is unclear. We can say in justification that no one in the world has a technological strategy, a new model. By the way, Mikhail Yuriev and I drew up such a model in general terms. It was published in the 16th February 2009 issue of Profil. I will only mention one thing. In order to get out of the American emission abyss, you need to fend it off. There's no point pouring water into the tub if you don't plug it. That's me alluding to currency controls. Brutal!
The President and the Prime Minister were saying that we have lagged behind in building all kinds of fancy western institutions, which have caused the crisis, and we have time to think about whether we should develop these institutions or any others. It is true we have lagged behind, but we have no other institutions apart from these "unfinished" ones. Here.
- Maybe with the American crisis, capitalism as a whole has also shown its incompetence?
- No, capitalism itself is a very rational model of development. That is why it defeated socialism. The main players in the normal capitalist market are rational people: bankers, industrialists, sellers of labour. The market presupposes the play of rationally thinking people. But in the process of the parasitic evolution of the American financial system, a fundamental change took place - the market agents turned into irrationally thinking parasites. The players in today's speculative markets are no different from Somali pirates in terms of their moral qualities, motivations and level of economic thinking. Only in Brioni suits. If you listen to the comments of stockbrokers, those who can translate from bird's-eye to human, you get a feeling that you are in Kaschko. Their motives are irrational. If you have a price fluctuation of 15-20% a day for copper or tin, it's not a market, it's a casino. So the G20 leaders came up with the idea, voiced by Sarkozy, that some kind of regulators should be introduced at
to the market. So it means that the market is not fulfilling its regulatory function. Why is there a need for such a market? If making money out of nothing is such a universal value, it's better to do it in a casino rather than on the stock market. At least casinos don't have the same destructive effect on the economy as the stock market. Generally speaking, it would be a good idea for the world to go back to the gold standard. Americans, by the way, would be the biggest winners. They have the biggest reserves - 8.5 thousand tons, we have 420 tons. It seems to be profitable for them. But they will not go for it. Not because it is technically impossible or there is not enough gold, but because then they won't be able to print unsecured currency, they will have to live honestly. And this system cannot live honestly. This is the systemic crisis.
Who will be screwed first, us or the banks?
- Many Russians took out mortgages in dollars. And even though you call them a bubble, so far this bubble has hit many heads harder than a brick. What to do?
- I too have a mortgage in dollars, and I have no regrets. It didn't take long for the music to play... Mortgages are long, and the current rise in the dollar is a temporary thing. People are asking: how much is oil going to cost this summer? In dollars? What if it costs a bag of dollars? If we are talking about the destruction of the current system of payments, the global monetary system, then what difference does it make what to count? And another important thing: it is not clear who will be the survivor in the end - the creditor or the debtor. There are serious reasons to believe that it may happen so that the creditors will not be able to claim anything, because they will not exist as subjects. The question, as they say, is who will die first. It is not certain that it will be us.
- What to keep your savings in today?
- If you only have a thousand dollars, then relax. For those who have more, the most useful advice is given by Alexey Kudrin. Invest equally in all currencies (this, by the way, is the only useful advice from Kudrin). If everything collapses, then, sorry, we don't cure that disease. Everyone will be on an equal footing. It's like when one raped - the whole village went to jail. The rapist goes to jail, too. We all do time. We all do time for one perpetrator.
Many journalists are obliged by their profession to be fatalistic
Everywhere you look there are fatalists! I don't even know how this calf on chicken legs has survived. I'm talking about the States!
I don't believe I'll come to a standstill.
I don't believe I'll ever give up,
That I won't find the strength anymore,
I'll fall to the bottom of despair
I don't believe I'll ever give up.
I don't believe in execution by the executioner,
That death and life are his desire.
I don't believe that my fate
Is decided from above,
And that the purpose of life is waiting...
Everywhere you look there are fatalists! In general, it is incomprehensible how this calf on chicken legs and has existed so far? It's the States!
Do you know why Ivan the Terrible killed his son? - For telling old jokes. You're the forty-third person to post this inane article on this forum. Maybe it's time to stop.
You are the forty-third person to post this mediocre article on this forum. Maybe it's time to stop.
If they post, it means the article isn't mediocre at all and is very popular.
Do you know why Ivan the Terrible killed his son? - For telling old jokes. You're the forty-third person to post this inane article on this forum. Maybe it's time to stop.
Better to laugh at a clever joke for the tenth time than actually be one of its characters! As for the mediocrity of the article, it's all about the relativity of certain truths! Categoricalness is a sign of either a sufficiently deep understanding of the subject or stupidity! The article is talented and simple enough to explain the essence of a certain state of affairs in this world!
If they're posting, it means it's not stupid at all and it's very popular.
Dumb shows on TV are popular, so is this dumb article.
Better to laugh at a clever joke for the tenth time than to be one of its characters actually! As for the mediocrity of the article, it's all about the relativity of certain truths! Categoricalness is a sign of either a sufficiently deep understanding of the subject or stupidity! The article is talented and simple enough to explain the essence of a certain state of things in this world!
You can assume I have a deep understanding of the subject. The article is crap. In this version someone has thought of cutting off the end, where the author unobtrusively sells his real estate as the only means to save himself in a crisis.
"Uncomplicatedly explanatory essence" means that it lends itself well to the mass-media rut of rabid blunt anti-Americanism. Everything that is bad for America is good for many here personally. Ask them why, they can't articulate it. Uncomplicated doesn't mean right.