Paper "AMERO" will replace the dollar by spring!? - page 7
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Don't worry, buyers have nowhere to jump but the moon, for example China is a bottomless barrel.
By the way, both the States and China have oil and gas in ample quantities, I googled it at a quick glance:
USA - http://globalist.org.ua/?p=8531
China - http://russian.people.com.cn/31518/6603438.html
So they have their own 'dope'.
And to look at the general state of the industry and its prospects, you can here (the last section on alternatives is especially interesting)
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D1%84%D1%82%D1%8CChina - http://russian.people.com.cn/31518/6603438.html
150,000 tonnes a year is only 50 rail oil trains or two medium-tonne tankers. That is a drop in the bucket. Even a refinery for such "reserves" is unprofitable. The only solution is to install a large moonshiner to provide paraffin and diesel to the Mongols who roam around.
By the way, both the States and China have
on the ass.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Китай
A clear indicator of a country's economic growth is its energy consumption. For example, China's oil consumption has increased more than 25-fold in the 40 years since the early 1960s, reaching 300 million tonnes in 2005, according to China's State Statistics Department. According to OPEC, China consumed 6.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2005. China's own production is about 170 million tonnes a year. China lacks a resource base that would allow it to rely on increased oil production, leading to a gradual increase in its dependence on imports. Given the ongoing economic growth, Chinese experts predict that the country's oil import requirement will reach 450 million tonnes by 2020. By 2025, China's oil consumption is projected to reach 710 million tonnes per year.
Chinese oil companies, such as Sinopec, are seeking access to oil and gas deposits outside China, such as in Russia, Kazakhstan, Africa and Latin America.
China consumed 50 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2005. Gas consumption is projected to increase to about 200 bcm by 2020.
http://www.gazprom.ru/articles/article21385.shtml
In September 2005, Gazprom delivered the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker to the US. The delivery was carried out under contracts with British Gas Group and Shell Western BV. Under these contracts LNG was purchased from British Gas Group and sold to Shell Western BV for sale on the US market.
And here is another interesting fact:
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: as of 16 May 2008, the current estimate is 702.7 million barrels (approx. 100 million tonnes). (approx. 100 million tonnes), which at the current price of oil ($40 per barrel) amounts to more than 28.3 trillion quid.
And here is a picture of oil production in the world in 2000:
As you can see both China and the US had normal pieces of the pie (the US even had 1% more than Russia), and of the "rest", many are really sitting on the US needle
And this is from 2003:
http://chinalist.ru/facts/index.php?p_param=66&p_lang=0
And here is some more recent data (and I quote):
....
China has become the world's fifth-largest oil producer, but experts are not sure it will be able to hold that position for long, the International Herald Tribune reports. According to the newspaper, the production of "black gold" in China has reached 3.76 million barrels per day. Thus, the Celestial Empire overtook Mexico and came close to Iran, which produces about 4 million barrels per day.
China's production growth was the result of the application of state-of-the-art technology, which increased the efficiency of existing fields...
And here is another interesting fact:
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: as of 16 May 2008, the current estimate is 702.7 million barrels (approx. 100 million tonnes). (approx. 100 million tonnes), which at the current price of oil ($40 per barrel) is over 28.3 trillion quid.
A I have calculated 700 million x 40 = 28 billion - and you have trillions ..... or do they already give you lemons per barrel?
And by and large, let's do the math:
- hydrocarbon reserves are limited and will last on average 20-30 years.
- During this time, according to the theory of economic cycles, a couple of world crises (of varying severity) will occur.
- After each crisis, investments in technology will increase in the oil and gas consuming countries, whereas in the producing countries the lion's share of investments will be directed towards increasing production (dutch syndrome).
- In the post hydrocarbon era, former producing countries will be forced to buy services and technologies from former consumers, the petro-bucks will flow back.
So the conclusion is that in the long term it is advisable to increase investment in the technology sector and reduce your position in the hydrocarbon sector.
A I have calculated 700 million x 40 = 28 billion - and you have trillions ..... or do they already give you lemons per barrel?
Sorry, I lost track of the zeros.
there is no need to present statistics and charts
it does not matter who ranks where in terms of production as it requires an economic calculation for each country based on the import/export balance, i.e. production and consumption
US population is more than 2 times that of Russia
if you want to delve deeper into the subject http://omrpublic.iea.org/balances.asp
I wonder who this guy is - he wrote such texts in 2007 in July - it's scary how accurate his predictions are....
July 5, 2007, 15:52
Till about 2Q2009 (+/- 1Q), the dollar will more or less rise, aiming at $450-500 per ounce, though before that it may well go down to $740 by the end of 2007. Then, by mid-2010, it will drop to about $2500 an ounce. From here, everything will depend on the great geopolitics. If by that time, a war will be brewing, will not happen, and if it will happen, with whom and on what scale. The same thing will happen with the oil - it will fall to the region of $40-45 by the end of 2008-beginning of 2009.
.............
I have roughly the same scenario, only more detailed and with a slightly different timeline. I haven't finalised it yet, so it's a bit on the dotted line:
Phase 1. Speculative crisis (spring 2007-early 2008) First phase of the fall in EM and real estate, flight from stocks and real estate to commodity futures and gold. Dollar devaluation, inflation slowdown.
Phase 2. Economic recession (early 2008 to mid-2008). Continued market decline, production stagnation, commodity markets begin to decline, quid move into GKOs, declining GKO yields, devaluation of the quid, zero inflation.
Phase 3. Consumer crisis (mid-2008 to end-2008). Mass defaults and bankruptcies of the population, sharp reduction in expenses, collapse of the consumer market, deflation, accelerated revaluation of the US dollar.
Phase 4. Production crisis (early 2009 to mid-2009). Industrial crisis, investment crisis, mass bankruptcies, mass layoffs and wage cuts, and an intensified consumer crisis. Continued fall of all markets - stock, commodity, real estate. Deflation accelerates, revaluation of the dollar accelerates.
Phase 5. Fiscal crisis (mid-2009-early 2010). Attempt to stop the economic collapse and compensate for the sharp drop in taxes by rapidly increasing state spending based on pyramidal foreign loans, some recovery of the economy, some deceleration of deflation and stabilization of the dollar.
Phase 6. Hyperinflationary shock. Geopolitical conflict erupted (second quarter of 2010 - early 2011). Artificial unwinding of hyperinflation. Depreciation of direct public debt, depreciation of pension liabilities, significant reduction of real budget expenditures, significant reduction of public debt burden, lower personnel costs and higher business profitability, concentration of all national property in the hands of financial elites. The collapse of US GKOs. Temporary growth of stock and commodity markets and the real estate market. Hyperinflation, multiple devaluations of the dollar.
Phase 7. Global economic collapse. Development of global geopolitical conflict. (mid-2011 to 2013-14) Collapse of national economies, collapse or physical shutdown of all markets (Dow - 2500-3600 if it survives), destruction of international economic ties, collapse of the Jamaican monetary system, regional and civil wars, World War III.
I will get more precise about timeframes and details, but the bigger scenario is something like this
http://forum.rosbalt.ru/index.php?showtopic=5512211&st=450there is no need to present statistics and charts
it does not matter who ranks where in terms of production as it requires an economic calculation for each country based on the import/export balance, i.e. production and consumption
the US population is over 2 times that of Russia
if you want to delve deeper into the subject http://omrpublic.iea.org/balances.asp
>> thank you for the quality link.
And in terms of population, Russia's prospects are bad: by 2050 there is a high probability of losing up to 50 million people. And that is very, very bad :-(.
And not just for the economy.