The FLET formula - page 9
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And if they cross, then they diverge again (signalling a trend or a flat
and so on to infinity in +/- a few points?
It doesn't seem to matter...
The depth of the trend depends solely on the size of the deposit.
There is always a trend to suit every taste. That is why the eternal debate - with such abundance, one cannot stop and nobody knows what to grab :-)
Also, if someone strongly versed in discrete and terra firma could tell me what relation the "magic" number 55 (or possibly 54) has to discrete distributions (rather binomial, or something related to it), it would be great...
exactly how many counts (minutes, seconds, bars, ticks, sighs, farts, whatever you measure it in) you have to wait for until the result converges...
and with one bullet he killed them both :-)
and of course, the song:
If we adhere to some mathematical rigor, then on a particular TF and only on historical data we can identify trend and flat areas of the quotes according to certain attributes (they have been described in this forum more than once). Unfortunately, at the right border of quotes (when one cannot look into the future) these parts cannot be marked out, because of some basic reasons, in particular because of very low predictability of financial timeseries, that is what provides the market efficiency - its main quality.
I propose to define, programmatically, a flat and a trend using the EOS formulashttps://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/359299 as follows:
Calculate all three PNB functions and determine the values of the parameter n and the coefficients tau or T. as well as D and the sum P+H+B and by their values refer the situation to a flat or a trend:
and with one bullet he killed them both :-)
and of course, the song:
♪ Ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh ♪)
but apparently it doesn't matter...
What depth of trend to take depends solely on the size of the deposit.
There is always a trend for every taste at any time. That is why the eternal debate - with such abundance, one's eyes dart around and no one knows what to grab :-)
To avoid controversy I will put it this way. By and large, flat and trend are definitions that are invented to briefly describe the ex post facto behaviour of price. But. The price is busy doing something else entirely. And it will be as it needs to be. An indicator based on history won't help. What is the quoter trying to achieve? That is the question that needs to be answered.
Quoting what or which pair, it is always individual and very rarely interrelated.
Quoting what or which pair, it is always individual and very rarely interrelated.
It's the same in all markets, not just pairs
Well any commodity is a pair to money or to another commodity.
To avoid arguments I will put it this way. Generally speaking, flat and trend are definitions that were invented to briefly describe post factum price behavior. But. The price is busy doing something else entirely. And it will be as it needs to be. An indicator based on history won't help. What is the quoter trying to achieve? That is the question that needs to be answered.
Rena... I think I've already written, but if you haven't read it, I'll write it for you again, it might help you in some way)
The definition and search for the market condition in the form of Flat and Trend at the current moment in time is justified by only one thing.
The market by and large is a SB with inclusion of thick tails, i.e. impulses that may be sequential or may occur from time to time, just like on the surface of the sea or the ocean, whichever is more convenient.
I would like to draw your attention to the number of states you are looking for, there are only two of them. Thus, if you know one state, it is possible to define, that it will be inevitably followed by the opposite one, i.e. the impulses that will move the price somewhere. The only question is when, and for this "when" not to lose money when the opposite event occurs. That's the speculator's whole task. Usually, almost everyone loses more than they gain during this"when", if they are capable of dividing markets into states correctly enough for it to work.
Two states are clearly better than the infinite variety of states that the market provides us with due to its overwhelming nature of time movement in SB.
In parallel, then, I will write that the definition of the Grail follows from here - it is such an analytical system that identifies ALL states of the market as some ONE whole. That is, there is only one option. Then it turns out that you can trade whenever and wherever you want, while making a profit.
It is important to say about statistics. Statistics in any case according to the Law of Big Numbers will give the possibility of 50/50 +-2-3%. However, statistics does not take into account impulses. They are simply lost in the noise due to low frequency of occurrence. But there are still tricks that can turn statistics in your favor.
The question for market gurus is simple: what is the same in flat and trend conditions? The answer is very simple. But the realization is very difficult. Unfortunately, it cannot be done without ingenuity and adolescent maximalism.)
So, in view of all the above, I will reply to your message:
1. Yes, it was invented
2. But the flat and trend states do exist on the market.
3. Change of states is inevitable as long as time tends to infinity => locks, over sitting, or simply inactivity are not so useless in trading =]
4. Yes, post factum, but because the market cannot be in two states at once, except for extremely high volatility in a relatively short period of time (for example, the average daily channel on EURUSD is 1500-3000 points), which happens once every 2-3 years, we can kind of predict the next state of the market, though without knowing the direction of course.
And market analysis is a real paradox and this is why it is very interesting - in order to find something, you must first divide and then combine, find the common denominator, and find what comes before it (which means that just a simple throwing something on the chart will not work, well, not at all) =)
And at the same time there is an opportunity to overtake all the mathematicians in the world engaged in this matter, regardless of gender age Nobel prizes ranks and so on. Except for our Gosha Perelman of course) This genius we all are 200 years ahead of, this I firmly believe =)
In fact having an absolute minimum of information to get the most out of it.
How cool is that? =)
PS: This post in no way applies to all lovers of price conversion in any way distorting its original evolution of states. Sorry guys, but you will never get anything meaningful that way. Only Price Action or its derivatives that do not change either the structure of market state evolution or the time when it happens.And here a reasonable question arises: how to change the price at the same time without changing it? I have already written the answer above. You just have to be more careful =)