The FLET formula - page 11
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ATS with ten c.u., took 2.5 c.u. in two days. - This is too high a risk when trading 22 instruments. Before that, I lost 8 c.u. in a week. We need to reduce the load. As you correctly pointed out, the market is alternately up or down, it turns out. I thought that if 11 instruments go up, the other 11 should go down, according to the communicating vessels principle. It turns out that this is not the case. Almost all 22 instruments at once, simultaneously, go either up or down:
Well, that should make sense=)
Again, it depends on who "rules the ball" for each particular currency, if there is a connection, then they will behave correlated. Otherwise they behave differently, who cares what they want.)
Be sure to take it into account when running the algorithm on a cloud of instruments. Otherwise you may have a correlated loss XD
For example in this situation what to do? Just ignore USDCAD, GPBUSD and leave EURUSD only, because spreads are lower and there is the same movement but less risk)
... I thought that if 11 instruments go up, the other 11 instruments should go down according to the communicating vessels principle. Turns out that's not the case. Almost all 22 instruments at once, simultaneously, go either up or down:...
To do that, the "vessels" really have to be communicating vessels, like in the Ring.
There it is clear: 10 positive and 11 negative.
You are fundamentally wrong about 22 in one direction.
When I look at the current price movement, I expect some of the patterns seen in the past to be repeated.
Yes, the indicators show a fait accompli, just like the price line on the left. But the indicators give me a chance to notice some peculiarities.
How to trade without history, I don't understand.
For this to happen, the "vessels" really have to be communicating, like in the Ring.
That's where it's clear: 10 positive and 11 negative.
You are fundamentally wrong about 22 to one side.
But, in fact, that's what happened! I was perplexed myself.
When I look at the current price movement, I expect some of the patterns seen in the past to be repeated.
Yes, the indicators show a fait accompli, just like the price line on the left. But the indicators give me a chance to notice some peculiarities.
How to trade without history, I do not understand.
That's right, without indicators you trade blind.
Rena... I think I've already written, but if you haven't read it, I'll write it for you again, it might help you in some way)
The definition and search for the market condition in the form of Flat and Trend at the current moment in time is justified by only one thing.
The market by and large is a SB with inclusion of thick tails, i.e. impulses that may be sequential or may occur from time to time, just like on the surface of the sea or the ocean, whichever is more convenient.
I would like to draw your attention to the number of states you are looking for, there are only two of them. Thus, if you know one state, it is possible to define, that it will be inevitably followed by the opposite one, i.e. the impulses that will move the price somewhere. The only question is when, and for this "when" not to lose money when the opposite event occurs. That's the speculator's whole task. Usually, almost everyone loses more than they gain during this"when", if they are capable of dividing markets into states correctly enough for it to work.
Two states are clearly better than the infinite variety of states the market provides us with due to its overwhelming nature of time movement in SB.
In parallel, then, I will write that the definition of the Grail follows from here - it is such an analytical system that identifies ALL states of the market as some ONE whole. That is, there is only one option. Then it turns out that you can trade whenever and wherever you want, while making a profit.
It is important to say about statistics. Statistics in any case according to the Law of Big Numbers will give the possibility of 50/50 +-2-3%. However, statistics does not take into account impulses. They are simply lost in the noise due to low frequency of occurrence. But there are still tricks that can turn statistics in your favor.
The question for market gurus is simple: what is the same in flat and trend conditions? The answer is very simple. But the realization is very difficult. Unfortunately, it cannot be done without ingenuity and adolescent maximalism.)
So, in view of all the above, I will reply to your message:
1. Yes, it was invented
2. But the flat and trend states do exist on the market.
3. Change of states is inevitable as long as time tends to infinity => locks, over sitting, or simply inactivity are not so useless in trading =]
4. Yes, post factum, but because the market cannot be in two states at once, except for extremely high volatility in a relatively short period of time (for example, the average daily channel on EURUSD is 1500-3000 points), which happens once every 2-3 years, we can kind of predict the future state of the market, but without knowing the direction of course.
And market analysis is a real paradox and this is why it is very interesting - in order to find something, you must first divide and then combine, find the common denominator, and find what comes before it (which means that just a simple throwing something on the chart will not work, well, not at all) =)
And at the same time there is an opportunity to overtake all the mathematicians in the world engaged in this matter, regardless of gender age Nobel prizes ranks and so on. Except for our Gosha Perelman of course) This genius we all are 200 years ahead of, this I firmly believe =)
In fact, having an absolute minimum of information to get the most out of it.
How cool is that? =)
PS: This post in no way applies to all lovers of price conversion in any way distorting its original evolution of states. Sorry guys, but you will never get anything meaningful that way. Only Price Action or its derivatives that do not change either the structure of market state evolution or the time when it happens.And here a reasonable question arises: how to change the price at the same time without changing it? I have already written the answer above. You just need to be more attentive =)
I agree that the state changes to the opposite - here
and on every timeframe
can you match them all?
it's really funny, but it's true.
I pasted some lines of DSP code in the MO, which are enough to build a very accurate indicator
Well, if you make one of the two coefficients negative, then you will see your said and my confirmation clearly
the state changes on every bar with few exceptions
----
now for the birds.
the market is not SB
a flat is when the volumes of selling and buying are almost equal
a trend is when there is a significant preponderance of either buying or selling.
but it is more interesting to start with a flat:
did i ask you to open a lock?
did anyone understand what it was about? ;)
Did I ask you to open the lock?
did anyone understand what that was about? ;)
Err...you share with the brokerage house and have a percentage of the spread ?
and the lock is a double premium :-)
Erm...you're in a share with the OC and have a percentage of the spread ?
and the lock is a double premium :-)
Maxim, brokerage companies do not and cannot share.
They do not quote.
Renat Akhtyamov:
the market is not the SB
A flat is when the volume of buying and selling is almost equal
Eh Rena Rena...)You're on your own again) That's right, about the birds =D