Hodrick-Prescott filter - page 9

 
Korey >>)))) Just know the subject of "fractions".

For the intuitive formulation of a forex trading system, that seems to be the case, and that's all you need. I would like to believe that something better (nevosetki, GA, adaptive filters, and other stuff) can increase the profit factor by a couple dozen percent (say, from 1.5 to 2), but so far I do not see any basis for such conclusions. I'm talking specifically about forex and not, say, option systems.

Mathematics is mandatory at least at the level of "mathematics for chemists" for risk assessment. A trader who is firmly versed in the subject of "fractions" and no more than that will probably trade more or less successfully, but he will not have the confidence. That is the main thing he needs. On the other hand, recently one knowledgeable trader asked me a serious question: "What do you want here? Do you want to chat, to show yourself off? Or do you want money? If yes, then trade!

 

to Mathemat

ranking the success rate of manual trade:
1st place qualification stockkeeper
2nd place medical professionals at least "senior doctor"
3rd place athletes CCM and above
....
in penultimate place engineers
in last place mathematicians and physicists

 

Put the (professional) military at ground zero. They know exactly what a step aside is and how the initiative is punished.

 
P.S. Mathematics for chemists is now at the level of the Faculty of Mechanics
 
The military are psychophysically unstable, their nerves are weak and their personal motivation is low, and their suggestibility index is high,
= they're used to someone taking care of them.
P.S. To clarify, not to offend -
it's important to have a healthy stomach for hand-trailing = it's nerves, but are there many military with healthy stomachs?
 
Korey >> the military are psychophysically unstable, they have weak nerves and personal motivation is low, the suggestibility index is high,
>> they're used to someone taking care of them.

In our company (uninterruptible and guaranteed power supply systems), ex-military personnel are at the top of their game, as the management has long since realised. If the task is set, they will complete it, albeit not in the most brilliant way and not without some mother's help, but without taking unnecessary steps sideways.

They are obviously not inclined to do stupid things like go to the doctor if they are in pain. And they have better discipline than many others who did not go through cadre school.

P.S. Mathematics for chemists is now at the level of the Faculty of Mechanics.

OK, at least let it be for logisticians... Well, I mean that a person should not be a stranger to the exponent function and the signs of the sum and integral, if anything. These mathematical intricacies are needed only for risk assessment, not for the signal part of the system itself, which may be as dumb as a cork, but it is profitable.

P.S. This is exactly the direction I went in my article on sandwiches. The level of maths there is just for logisticians, but there's nothing in the article about maths for signal parts of systems.

 
Mathemat писал(а) >>

And they have better discipline than many others who did not go through cadre school.

so it's social orientation, and there's a monitor and no one to talk to.

 
Korey >> :

to Mathemat

I am ranking the success of manual trading:
in 1st place - the qualifications of the head stockkeeper
Medical professionals at least "senior doctor" on the 2nd place
in 3rd place - athletes IMC and above
....
last but one engineers
at the very last - mathematicians and physicists

A good, correct ranking is 100% confirmation, results.

Especially for US hedge funds, they are all mathematicians and physicists, even with Schneobel prizes.

And the runs are minimal, only tens of billions of USD.

 

four2one, it was about the success rate of manual trading.

The "quant" funds (Renaissance, for example) have bots trading. There is no one there with financial education, because they are not needed. And these "quanta" rule very well, and the drawdowns are such that one could never dream of in his sweetest dreams.

But it's the people with high financial degrees who are sitting where the billions are...

 
As it turns out (almost coincidentally), the US Bureau of Labor uses this filter extensively, including for the very important, official (criticised and now quite controversial) extrapolation of the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. But it does not advertise it too much.

https://www.bls.gov/ore/pdf/ec060030.pdf

Attached is the article "HP in practice".
Files: