Price movements can be predicted ! - page 12
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I'm sorry, but you promised a forecast. if it's not too much trouble to mark it up and explain it. i understand it's hard work. But often when you explain it to others, it becomes clearer to yourself. although i don't believe in eliot waves. but just curious.
Good evening to you. Forecasts will be available after the start of trading. Markups and explanations by afternoon/afternoon - it is technically difficult for me to make nice pictures...
In the working version I have everything simplified to a schematic...
If we're getting on a first-name basis, that's fine with me...
And as for "betting", we're all arguing here to achieve the truth, and we'd rather not have gladiatorial fights.
It is certainly possible, but only in exceptional cases.
I wasn't interested in betting, I'm not interested in the direction of the price either.
You said you were '100% sure'. I applied a technique commonly used to determine people's attitudes to risk - everyone says one thing, but inside they have another. My bet was perfectly fair in your frame of reference, i.e. our odds of winning/losing or the mathematical expectation of the "prize" were the same for both parties. You refused to bet at 1000:11, i.e. you didn't think it was a fair bet, so your real level of confidence was lower. Probably considerably lower. The outcome of the week showed that it was justified. Consequently, the thread title should be changed to something more neutral, like "Price movements can be guessed, sometimes...".
I wasn't interested in betting, I'm not interested in the direction of the price either.
You said you were '100% sure'. I applied a technique commonly used to determine people's attitudes to risk - everyone says one thing, but inside they have another. My bet was perfectly fair in your frame of reference, i.e. our odds of winning/losing or the mathematical expectation of the "prize" were the same for both parties. You refused to bet at 1000:11, i.e. you didn't think it was a fair bet, so your real level of confidence was lower. Probably considerably lower. The outcome of the week showed that it was justified. Consequently, the thread title should be changed to something more neutral, like "Price movements can be guessed, sometimes..."
There you go again. Let what I have inside stay inside, I don't think it is interesting to anybody.
If you are not interested in talking about forecasts and goals, let's leave the verbal quarrels that boil down to
Let's not descend to the level of sabluk'a to personal assessments - "sure/not sure" etc.
And as for the title of the thread, it is just within this thread that I intend to show in practice the validity of this slogan.
If I fail to do so (and let the public judge), then you have the right to say Sart is worthless and nobody cares about his opinion...
However, I think you'll soon see for yourself, that the slogan in the title is true.
"100" % прогноз на следующую неделю:
1. the NZDUSD is confidently wanting to go down. By Friday the target of 0.4900 will be reached. The price is now at 0.5380.
2. USDJPY confidently wants to go down. By Friday the target 92.00 will be reached. The price is now at 96.00.
During the day, when the market warms up, forecasts for other instruments are possible.
There you go again. Let what I have inside stay there, I don't think it's of any interest to anyone.
If you're not interested in talking about directional predictions and goals, let's leave the verbal bickering to
to personal assessments - "sure/not sure", etc., etc. Let's not descend to sabluk's level.
As for the title of the topic, it is just within this topic that I intend to show in practice the validity of this slogan.
If I fail to do so (and let the public judge), then you have the right to say Sart is worthless and nobody cares about his opinion...
However, I think you will soon see for yourself the validity of the slogan in the title.
When you start to make public predictions then everything about those predictions is no longer personal. Let's make it clear right away that I want to quantify everything.
You made a prediction. My first question to myself is, "How much can I trust this person?" The first answer is to check how much does this person trust himself? If he doesn't believe in his prediction, I certainly shouldn't trust him. The degree of your trust in yourself was so low that it was impossible to quantify it. That is, I do not take your prediction seriously.
You will not be able to prove it in practice. You simply do not have enough patience, even if you have a ready-made grail. How many correct predictions do you have to make for it to be statistically significant? If you focus only on the direction of movement, i.e. 50% probability of guessing, to get to the 5% significance level you need to guess correctly 7 out of eight. Is that enough for eight weeks?
When you start making public predictions, everything about those predictions ceases to be your own. Let's make it clear right away that I want to quantify everything.
You made a prediction. My first question to myself is, "How much can I trust this person?" The first answer is to check how much does this person trust himself? If he doesn't believe in his prediction, I certainly shouldn't trust him. The degree of your trust in yourself was so low that it was impossible to quantify it. That is, I do not take your prediction seriously.
You will not be able to prove it in practice. You simply do not have enough patience, even if you have a ready-made grail. How many correct predictions do you have to make for it to be statistically significant? If you focus only on the direction of movement, i.e. 50% probability of guessing, to get to the 5% significance level you need to guess correctly 7 out of eight. Is that enough for eight weeks?
"My first question to myself is, 'How much can I trust this person? ... ...
"Trust/don't trust..." There you go again, like you're gonna play by those predictions. The question of trust is again your own business.
You just watch the predictions and draw conclusions, maybe you will soon agree that the price movement can be predicted, and maybe you will disagree.
If you stick to your opinion, that's OK too.
However, I think there are already people here who are inclined to believe that the market is not chaos in which it is impossible to make any predictions.
If you want, you should independently keep statistics for forecasts, and decide for yourself about the significance of the obtained results - 7 out of 8 or something else,
and leave it to others to draw their own conclusions.
You and I are not the only ones here, after all.
That's enough for now.
If you want, keep your own statistics on the realisation of predictions, and decide for yourself whether the results are 7 out of 8 or whatever, and leave it to others to draw their own conclusions as well.
It's not my conclusions, it's the maths. Any "independent" conclusions other than these are banal ignorance. Are you showing off for the C-level students or promoting the methods pretending to be scientific?
If you guess the price direction by flipping a coin, then with more than 5% probability 6 out of 8 predictions will be correct.
1. the NZDUSD is confidently wanting to go down. By Friday the target of 0.4900 will be reached. Right now the price is 1.5380.
A clear mistake. Such a price has never been seen in the history of this instrument. Sart , be careful, you can predict the price movement, I agree, but the Elliott waves have nothing to do with it.Such blunders make the degree of confidence in the forecast even less.
An obvious mistake. This price has never been seen in the history of this instrument. Sart , be careful, you can predict the price movement, I agree with this thesis, but Eliot waves have nothing to do with it. Such blunders make the credibility of the forecast even lower
Of course, it is 0.5380, maybe because of Tumbo - he is fed up with his attacks.
to Sart
to Timbo.
Men, back to the subject, please. It's not your fucked-up characters we're interested in, it's your predictions. Even those who don't believe in God, devil or Eliot read it..
So please don't spread yourself too thin.