all on buying the PFTS index !!! - page 9
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
where's the article
https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/1413
The arguments are available to anyone who knows how to use the internet. A full analysis of these pearls could amount to a long lecture.
Отказ многих заемщиков платить по оформленным кредитам под залог недвижимости (мировой ипотечный кризис) привел к резкому скачку банковских невозвратов и нехватке ликвидности в системе.
There is no global mortgage crisis. There is a problem with sub-prime loans - loans made to people who would not normally be eligible for them - the hereditary unemployed, the homeless and other lowlifes - the waste of society. In America, everything was fine, the interest rate was very low, real estate prices were going up and loans were available to everyone. But gradually the price increase stopped, the interest rate went up, and the slackers remained slackers. The problem is not that they can't pay, but that the collateral securing the loans has fallen in value. The problem has become worldwide because for the last 20 years loans for everything have been packaged in packages of 100 million and sold as high quality securities. And they were high quality for a long time until they were diluted with a lot more bad credit, and then the securities went down. So if the bank paid 100 million for a security and now can't even sell it for 30 million, that's a serious problem. And the insurance companies insured those securities and those loans - that's a problem for the insurers.
Since the Ukrainian financial system, like all Third World systems, is dependent on external cash injections, the parent branches have begun to withdraw their foreign investments to cover domestic liquidity problems.
All countries' financial systems are dependent on American money. Then again, as long as America was doing well, investors could afford to put a small portion of their money into the risky markets of the banana republics to diversify their portfolios. When things got hot back home, they started going into cash from everywhere to wait out the perilous times, but first and foremost the riskiest investments. The golden rule is that the riskier the investments, the faster the money flees.
Borrowers of all sorts took the bait. Everyone took out loans - small and large companies alike; some managed to borrow money even in January and February of this year, when the first signs of the crisis were already visible.
"Bait and switch is kindergarten, credit is a tool like a shovel or a power tiller. "The first manifestations of the crisis" were visible to absolutely everyone except Ukrainian analysts as early as two years ago. For example here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
But the loan has to be repaid. And under conditions of money hunger, the interest rate increases as the cost of capital rises. Having failed to show last year's profitability, investment companies, in order not to get big losses, started selling their securities, which led to the collapse on the PFTS.
As for the profitability - this is nonsense. The profitability of the funds was not guaranteed by anybody, i.e. they did not care about it. The problem with debts is that they cannot be covered by new borrowings - because no one will lend more. In addition, even those debts that do not have to be paid back now were taken out against securities, and those securities have fallen dramatically in value, i.e. creditors require additional collateral for existing debts or early repayment of debt, which no fund/bank/investment company can cope with.
Today it makes sense to buy securities and indices of countries or portfolios of funds not related to exports and imports from Russia, USA, ..., but to pay attention to developing economies standing aside from main geopolitical and economic axes - these are India, Brazil, Australia ...
Australia lives by supplying raw materials to China, which produces goods for America. If America has a recession, no one will buy anything from China and China won't buy anything from Australia. And Australia is screwed. More than 50% of Australian stockmarket is American investment, and they are fleeing Australia as well as Russia/Ukraine, albeit a little slower. Same story with India.
So there you have it in a nutshell...
The arguments are available to anyone who knows how to use the internet. A full analysis of these pearls could amount to a long lecture.
There is no global mortgage crisis. There is a problem with sub-prime loans - loans made to people who would not normally be eligible for them - the hereditary unemployed, the homeless and other lowlifes - the waste of society. In America, everything was fine, the interest rate was very low, real estate prices were going up and loans were available to everyone. But gradually the price increase stopped, the interest rate went up, and the slackers remained slackers. The problem is not that they can't pay, but that the collateral securing the loans has fallen in value. The problem has become worldwide because for the last 20 years loans for everything have been packaged in packages of 100 million and sold as high quality securities. And they were high quality for a long time until they were diluted with some more bad loans, and then the securities went down. So if the bank paid 100 million for a security and now can't even sell it for 30 million, that's a serious problem. And the insurance companies insured those securities and those loans - that's a problem for the insurers.
All countries' financial systems depend on American money. Then again, as long as America was doing well, investors could afford to put a small portion of their money into risky markets in the banana republics to diversify their portfolios. When things got hot back home, they started going into cash from everywhere to wait out the perilous times, but first and foremost the riskiest investments. The golden rule is that the riskier the investments, the faster the money flees.
"Bait and switch is kindergarten, credit is a tool like a shovel or a power tiller. "The first manifestations of the crisis" were visible to absolutely everyone except Ukrainian analysts two years ago. For example here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
As for the profitability - this is nonsense. The profitability of the funds was not guaranteed by anybody, i.e. they did not care about it. The problem with debts is that they cannot be covered by new borrowings - because no one will lend any more. In addition, even those debts that do not have to be paid back now were taken out against securities, and those securities have fallen dramatically in value, i.e. creditors require additional collateral for existing debts or early repayment of debt, which no fund/bank/investment company can cope with.
Australia lives by supplying raw materials to China, which produces goods for America. If America has a recession, no one will buy anything from China and China won't buy anything from Australia. And Australia is screwed. More than 50% of Australian stockmarket is American investment, and they are fleeing Australia as well as Russia/Ukraine, albeit a little slower. Same story with India.
That's it in a nutshell...
some good thoughts, where are you from?
have some good thoughts, where are you from?
The thoughts are not mine - everyone who wanted to know that knows that, but someone there is not a reader, but a professional analyst.
And we're the ones here...
The thoughts are not mine - everyone who wanted to know that knows that, but someone there is not a reader, but a professional analyst.
And we're the ones who are here...
>> so you're one of those who run this site?
>> so you're the one who runs this site?
I mean, I'm the one who hangs out here.
My thoughts are not mine - anyone who wanted to know that knows that, but someone out there is not a reader, but a professional analyst.
There is a mortgage crisis.
The fact that you described the mechanism does not cancel it (I mean that here you have to work hard to get a loan, and construction companies have frozen 80% of projects and related industries are slowing down)
Credits for operations were used and it is also true
It says nothing about a profitability guarantee but that they had to sell to pay back loans and that along with the above mentioned collapsed the market
Chinese goods will be bought even more during a crisis because there is nothing cheaper, and it does not say anything about China.
and the indices in Australia, India and Brazil fell many times less
That's my general unprofessional reasoning.
I wonder what Eric Naiman, Head of the Banking Investment Department at Ukrsotsbank, has to say about it.
Most of all I'm interested in recommendations related to the formation of portfolios detached from Russia and the USA
The mortgage crisis is too broad, much less 'global'. Just over one per cent of homes have been affected, even fewer have gone into bankruptcy.
To take out a home loan is a sweat in any country, in America it became easy for a while - now you have to pay for it.
Credit for transactions is used all over the world, but only in Ukraine is it called 'taking the bait'.
Chinese goods are not just cheap consumer goods. Chinese goods are everything, everything at all. China is not tied to the US financial system in any way, but it is falling with terrible force in fear of a recession/depression in America. In a depression people don't buy anything.
Of course Australia has declined less than Russia, don't compare God's gift with eggs after all. But to call Australia an unaffiliated country with the US is silly.
The mortgage crisis is too broad, much less 'global'. Just over one per cent of homes have been affected, even fewer have gone into bankruptcy.
To take out a home loan is a sweat in any country, in America it became easy for a while - now you have to pay for it.
Credit for transactions is used all over the world, but only in Ukraine is it called 'taking the bait'.
Chinese goods are not just cheap consumer goods. Chinese goods are everything, everything at all. China is not tied to the US financial system in any way, but it is falling with terrible force in fear of a recession/depression in America. In a depression people don't buy anything.
Of course Australia has declined less than Russia, don't compare God's gift with eggs after all. But to call Australia an unaffiliated country with the US is nonsense.
But frozen construction projects in Ukraine are a fact - and this is the crisis and the interest has been raised (risk fee + reservation + ....)
China is in decline because it is the main creditor to the US.
Financial crisis and trade crisis are not the same thing. Trade is down but it's going strong.
Following your logic, but my premise (that Chinese goods will continue to be sold) Chinese goods will further strengthen the market and subsequently even increase sales, which is also true for goods from India and Brazil ... and therefore Australia (albeit linked to the USA) will also go up and the fact that its investment market capitalisation is falling does not mean a crisis of existing turnover for it (just a slight downturn), especially since it as a major producer of bank metals has additional reserves (I mean the index).
But frozen construction projects in Ukraine is a fact - and it's a crisis and % raised (risk fee + reservation + ....)
China is falling as it is the main creditor of the US
A financial crisis and a trade crisis are not the same thing.
Following your logic, but my premise (that Chinese goods will continue to sell) Chinese goods will further strengthen the market and subsequently even strengthen sales volume, which is also true for goods from India and Brazil ... This means that Australia (albeit tied to the USA) will also go up and the fact that its investment market capitalisation is falling does not mean a crisis of existing turnover (just a slight downturn), all the more so because as a major producer of bankable metals it has additional reserves (I mean the index).
Once again, Chinese goods are not just cheap consumer goods. China today is everything: cars, any kind of equipment (household/computer/stations), expensive clothes (the vast majority of plasticky brands are made in China) - http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200108/04/eng20010804_76481.html or http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html.
America buys less and less of all this, accordingly China buys less raw materials for production, it's getting sad in Australia. How China is America's creditor is unclear. Don`t tell me about foreign reserves: they have nothing to do with China`s falling oil revenues.
Another example, Russia and Gazprom. If Europeans shift to bicycles and stop using heating because of the financial crisis, oil and gas prices drop drastically, followed by Gazprom, and Russia gets very sad. In Australia, Gazprom is BHP and Rio Tinto, and if China stops buying coal and ores of all metals and India and Russia don't take uranium, both Gazprom and Australia will fall.