How much is needed.... - page 7
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
So, USDCAD H1, the run lines are signed.
Conclusions: this pair will not be volatile enough by the end of the week (95% confidence probability)
So far I can say the following: Very nice picture.
The VTE picture and your picture, of course, cannot be compared.
On the other hand, the VTE allows to draw an unambiguous conclusion - the USDCAD has decided to go up, the minimum target is 1.0200.
Of course, the conclusion of insufficient volatility can also be used - to refrain from trading.
By the way, it should be noted that the VTE forecast of downward movement in USDJPY with a min target of 104.00 is still valid. The feeling is that this instrument will break out sharply and quickly downwards.
The min target of 0.8000 for the NZDUSD has not been reached either, the wave pattern persists. Therefore, it is not too late to buy at 0.7900.
In the meantime, the VTE forecast for USDJPY to move downwards with a min target of 104.00 remains valid. The feeling is that this instrument is going down very sharply and quickly.
Next, USDJPY D1
Waves are slow, so analysis on D1.
Preparation:
1. Put OBV - see the widening trend,
Process it. Let's apply the resistance on tops. We see this resistence is confirmed 5 times.
Copy it to Ctrl/mouse and move to the beginning of the expanding trend.
2. We put Stochastic-100):-)), we see the same expanding trend, but it is more tragic,
we see divergence of Stochastic on tops 1 and 2, i.e. USDJPY tried to go up, but failed!
3. Looking for the channel walls. On the main chart we conduct a saporte. We start with saporte, because it goes in that direction (!) and the lower side is more worked out.
copy it up on the resistance position - we obtain the channel netting.
4. We look for the beginning of the problem area. The regression on the left is defined by the start of the expanding trend; let us move the regression point to the left.
Move the set point of the regression to the right so that the slope of the regression coincides with Saporta. The beginning of the problem area is marked "3".
, i.e. it is the area of USDJPY price shock after unsuccessful upward movement.
5. To check what is going on in Volumes, put the Volumes indicator. And we find an interesting dependence.
price tops are falling on volume troughs, and vice versa price bottoms are falling on maximum volumes.
This means that now we should consider the fundamental analysis.
6. F.A. - the fall of the price at the growth of volume means, that someone invests large amounts of dollars.
This could be a seasonal phenomenon - tranches of the eastern tigers' annual plans.
It might be a talking head frenzy.
It may be a "pump-loading", i.e. the chips were distributed in preparation for the rise of the dollar
. On the right bars we see the decline in volumes, and at the same time the consolidation of the pair's market.
We see that the drop in volumes has no longer caused a rise, as it did before between the tops 1 and 2.
This means that the USD is strong enough against the Yen and will not fall down.
7. For the forecast we are looking for the appropriate velocity line.
It will be the blue line 4, selected in the area of the failed upward movement,
as a hidden, established trend. We carry this line to position 5 and obtain the forecast-saoporte of the expanding trend.
The more so, as line 5 coincided with 3 whiskers (though we simply copied its slope from line 4)
8 The confidence interval of this forecast is estimated up to point 6 - crossing with the regression. I.e. almost a month.
As we made the forecast saporta, i.e. we forecasted the bottom edge, in which case the forecast for upward movement should be corrected by the height of small waves+the height of a candle with a whisker.
One of the conclusions of the forecast: globalist strengthening processes are going on in USDJPY pair, price around 104 is unlikely.
Let's go further, USDJPY D1.
---------------------------------------------
Great, you can feel the hand of the Master. I'll be honest - I don't understand much of the reasoning behind this prediction. It would be better to get hooked on VTE.
It is more unambiguous - there are three fives, nested into each other and pointing in the same direction, you can open. Otherwise, it's better to wait.
And no fundamental analysis for you. And the pictures in the VTE are simpler.
to Sart.
You are very right in your own way.
The point is that the above analysis cannot be stuffed into an EA,
because the choice of what to analyse changes every time,
This is how chefs do it when preparing healthy and tasty food.
This is not good for MTS, you have to look for cybernetic approaches.
So autotraders who have tried Crimea and Rym are somewhat saddened.
I.e. your five-wave jump-skip is much more suitable for MTS.
But is your approach suitable for profit making?
to Sart
But is your approach suitable for profit making?upwards on NZDUSD. And at the moment there is a long position opened on NZDUSD at 0.7915.
If the price reaches 0.7815 and the low wave is still relevant, I will strengthen the volume of the position, which is already open.
Here we go, opened all the real trading cards.
On the USDJPY, oddly enough, the three nested 5s down are still relevant.
to Sart
So your system gives a profit first of all from a rational "portfolio" management:
- the number of open positions is set according to the wave type,
- plus well-thought-out opening levels,
- plus successfully set takeprofit.
The NZDUSD question is quite interesting in theoretical terms, like this (?): there is a wave down, but is it over, and where will the wave up lead?
It is not clear from the yellow-blue line speed indicators. I.e. how to analyze it in a sluggish market.
Preparation:
1. We draw the OBV indicator parallel to the resistanceto the tops and copy the suport from it (there is only one suport in the indicator window)
2. Watch Stochastic 100 - it is not clear, in which part of the wave we are in.
watch the history - there are no quick reversals on Stochastic, i.e. a further decline is possible.
3. Pulling out the hidden strong levels according to Farley.
4. By the most frequently confirmed squares we place Fibo. We set the Fibo downwards as we need to determine the depth of the pit.
We see that minus 261 per cent has occurred near 0.7840
5. This means that the Fibo levels are chosen correctly. We use them to determine the upper probable levels -
by reversing the Fibo (not shown in the picture) and mark the level of +261 per cent - the blue line. This is the forecast of the top =0.7930.
And the +423% level is above the triangle. I.e. breakout from the triangle upwards is not justified for the time being.
Therefore we stop at the forecast inside the triangle max = 0.7930
6. We test the hypothesis of whether it will go further down to the minus 423% Fibo.
Looking at the daily, we see that it can go down and very far.We also see a triangle.
What is it - is it really a triangle or will it turn into another pattern, like a channel?
We copy the resist and move it as the bottom wall of the expected channel.
We again reverse the Fibo downwards and look where the level of minus 423% is. And it lies in the expected channel.
It means that this level with a high probability will be fulfilled. So the lower forecast level is 0.7805
Using the speed lines (not shown) we estimate the timeframe of the forecast fulfillment.
Up 0.7930 = 4 working days, down 0.7805 = 2 working days.
Multiple testing of the strong 0.7840 level is possible.
Note, the forecast equal to the channel walls is not relevant, as the channel is only assumed, i.e. it is already many days ahead.
However, traders do not like to enter in areas such as this one. There are a lot of uncertainties.
The NZDUSD issue is quite interesting in theoretical terms
However, traders don't like to enter on plots like this one. There are a lot of uncertainties.
______________________________________________________________
Korey, this is just awful ! When the price sees nets like this it will realise it has nowhere to go but to surrender at the mercy of the victor.
-----------------------------------------------
On the latest developments on the USDJPY. The lowest five has widened its price channel (i.e., the end of the second wave and the beginning of the third wave have changed), but it is still relevant.
Hard to believe, but the VTE forecast is still down, with the same min target.