NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 99
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Dear Yurixx,
it seems we have different interpretations of the word "Beginner". Read this link What to start as a beginner it will give you an idea of my understanding.
Nevertheless, I understand your legitimate frustration, but I want to emphasize - you are again asking almost impossible things from me: I do not teach people to trade on the exchange - I develop systems.
You can find a lot of people on the intranet for whom it is their core business. Don't worry about 30 days - I will gladly extend it.
And for some omissions in my help, thank you very much - I will fix it and submit it for new consideration. On the second half of your comment I already asked my nephew to reply :)
Yes, DICAR don't take it personally - at least you insist on clarification instead of just scolding me, for which I thank you very much.
The comment is not harsh, it reflects the need to do something about novice traders.
It would be interesting to know the opinion of Comrade Integer about the sufficiency of the Help (he seems to be a respected and experienced trader on this forum).
... So far, these rich people are nowhere to be seen. But any member of this forum, at the sight of a "grail" (local lingo meaning "money printing press") system seller, has one legitimate question: "why sell a system for money that makes a disproportionately large amount of money? Why don't you try answering it?
I've chosen this question for a separate answer :)
To be honest, I was expecting it much earlier. It shows me a high culture of discussion. Usually it is the first and last argument of skptics. So I think it is imperative to answer it from a variety of perspectives.
1. The market is controlled chaos. It is run by big money. Big money obeys laws that are completely different from those taught by various theorists. That's why I don't see much value in all sorts of technical analysis tools - they all use history to approximate results for the future. But the future changes at an alarming rate, and the past experience is of little use. For example, the appearance of automated trading systems in large numbers has led to an absolute destabilization of markets. This means that there is a new variable that is already able to influence the market. But the changes of the market make it necessary to change the systems, which in its turn leads to new changes in the market behaviour and even more chaos. Now even the big money cannot control it like before. There is no more or less predictable stabiliser for all the means of technical analysis.
2. My systems, of course they are wrong too, but less often, because they use a different basis, not statistical, analytical or mathematical. They don't use history to find the optimal curve (see attachment for today's result).
3. I was brought up in the spirit of collectivism and I feel responsible to the country which gave me education, enough to pay my debts.
4. I hate it when a nation whose entire wealth is based on violence and warfare behaves like a highway bandit threatening the very existence of our civilization.
5. I would like to make everyone rich, and then the world will be a more peaceful place.
6. In general, why not rule the world? I think it would be no worse than Bush's...
As an inventive man (Inventor of the USSR), I found a universal solution to all these problems:
Hand out signals to support my systems solution and, if necessary, the systems themselves.
1. If there is enough mass, we solve problem 1 and 2 - we will order the market and thereby improve the results of my systems :)
2. If we train enough traders and create the appropriate infrastructure, we can manage the accounts of large funds, including the pension funds.
3. With support for all of the previous items, you can move on to the implementation of the program for items 4 and 6
So I am driven solely by pragmatic and ambitious interests.
And you do not agree?
The program is clear - get involved.
Glad to have you on my board!
It would be interesting to know the opinion of Comrade Integer about the sufficiency of the Help (he seems to be a respected and experienced trader on this forum).
By the way, it's a very interesting question! I was struck by this toolkit - it contains something that is not in any other toolkit for any program. All the other helps tell you how to use, what to click, what to twist, etc. (I always want to know what is it? This helper has the most important and the most interesting point - What Is It? I'm completely satisfied:)
A very interesting question, by the way! I'm blown away by this helpdesk - it has something that is not in any helpline for any program. The same is true of all the guides, which say how to use, what to click, what to twist, etc. (but why should I click and twist), first I want to know what is it? This helper has the most important and interesting point - What Is It? I am completely satisfied:)
>>Thank you for being so informative.
Well, since you touched my nephew, then as a nephew I will try to tell my primitive approach to successful intraday trading on S&P 500 e-mini:).
I started by stupidly looking at indicators and pestering my uncle with questions, to which I did not get a comprehensive answer like you did.
I have downloaded a lot of video clips, seminars, in which I have not found any technical advice, but only 10 golden rules of trading. (http://www.futures4all.com/?cmd=pub&pubid=1&sid=), which is also useful to know. I read articles about technical analysis in Stavan Nisan and other articles, which I use as the main analytical tool in trading.
Regarding the "STP" signals I can say the following: they provide the most important information to confirm my market entry and exit resistance and support levels.
Not a big example, the beginning of the working week:
1) Looking at thePrediction History table to understand the direction of the market, the trend and the price limit.
2) Running through the market, in this case (S&P500 E-mini) for the past week, I highlight for myself the average result of market volatility (price limits). For example: the highest price was say 1300, the lowest 1250, then I divide the price difference (1300-1250):2=25 pips. As a result, we see that if we entered a market in which we did not exceed or temporarily exceeded the price in the range of 1275-1300 points, the market mostly tends to move in the range of 1275-1250 points, which gives us an idea of where not to short or long :)
3) Studying the STP-Trend column and price limits for a given session.
4) I draw up a trading plan (where to buy/sell).
5) Slowly determine the trend direction and the market trend, using support and resistance levels in the trading terminal.
6) I mark targets on the trading terminal chart, taking into account STP-Trend predictions.
7) If the target price has been reached and all predictions that the trend is moving in the direction we want, then enter the market with setting a stop loss one point beyond the nearest price limit displayed in the column STP-Trend.
8) After entering the market, I begin to observe all the parameters and indicators STP, drawing in the trading terminal additional lines of support / resistance. Observing the STP indicators, you can catch a trend by its tail (scalping) on corrections, thereby adding positions and hedging. (For spot traders only)
9) For a daily session, as a rule, 3-4 deals are executed according to plan (this is 10% of total amount), and 5-6 deals for hedging and correction (2%-5% each). In the end the well-thought-out moves win, just temperament does not allow to sit and wait.
10) Well, if the trend sharply changes direction, you can always minimize the loss before its complete collapse, or close in profit observing the indicators, which are working ahead.
This example is not a model for successful trading in the market, but still it gives positive results. To many people it may seem naive to use only two straight lines for technical analysis of the market. But I assure you there is nothing else to do. To check the adequacy of our predictions, I have used a lot of the most advanced indicators, and concluded that there is nothing faster and more practical than straight lines combined with STP.
Good luck to us all!
Nevertheless, I understand your legitimate indignation, but I want to point out - you are again asking me to do the almost impossible: I do not teach people how to trade the stock market - I develop systems.
And for some of the omissions in my helper - thank you very much - I will fix it and submit it for a new review.
Firstly, there is no outrage, secondly, it could never have been legitimate under any circumstances.
It wasn't even a criticism. I understand you very well, having spent a lot of time and effort developing your system. Now that everything is ready, it is not very interesting to spell out the elementary things. That is why I tried to present you with the perspective of a person for whom this topic is new. You didn't come here just to get a round of applause.
By the way, I personally am not a novice. I've traded on the stock exchange, and then some time on the forex market. But I didn't deal with futures and options, I traded shares and indices. That's why I could understand the use of your system without any comments. However, thinking about others, obviously, is not your specialty only. :-)
3. I was brought up in the spirit of collectivism and I feel responsibility towards my country that gave me education, enough to pay my debts.
4. I do not like it when a nation that has made its fortune on violence and wars behaves like a highway bandit threatening the very existence of our civilization.
In point 4, you must be referring to Americans. Does this mean that you will not sell your system or its signals to Americans, either professionals or amateurs ? Or maybe even stricter, maybe you will sell it only to CIS citizens, or only to Russians in general ?
Frankly, I share your patriotism and even your attitude towards the United States as a nation. And these questions arose because you mentioned the $5000 per month that professionals are willing to pay for your system. I think this applies to western professionals, mainly Americans.
If you are not going to make any distinction between clients, then it is unclear what point 4 has to do with answering the question "why are you selling a printing press ?"
5. I really want to make everyone rich - then the world would be calmer.
If it's a joke, it's funny. If not, then you must think that money is printed for OWN ?
6. In fact, why not rule the world? I think it could be as good as Bush's...
Yes, the benefits of the subjunctive mood ...
:-)))
If it's a joke, it's funny. If not, then you must think that money is printed for OWN ?
As far as I understand, by CBOE you mean http://cboe.com/
...Now that it's done, there's not much interest in spelling out the basics.
... So you could have understood the use of your system without any comments at all.
... In point 4 you must be referring to the Americans?
...Does it mean that you will not sell your system or its signals to Americans, either professionals or amateurs?
Or maybe even stricter, maybe you will sell it only to CIS citizens, or only to Russians in general ?
Frankly, I share your patriotism and even your attitude towards the United States as a nation. And these questions arose because you mentioned the $5000 per month that professionals are willing to pay for your system. I think this applies to western professionals, mostly Americans.
...If you are not going to make any distinction between clients, then it is unclear what p.4 has to do with answering the question "why are you selling a printing press ?"
If it's a joke, it's funny. If not, then you must think that money is printed on OWN ?
Yep, the benefits of the subjunctive mood ...
:-)))
Thanks.
The question is not my willingness to chew, the question is the subject of the chewing... :-)
I really just do not know what is not clear. So far few people have asked for more information than in the helpe ... and it was mostly about the meaning of the picture elements and not the instructions for use ... So I suggest you make your questions more specific and I'll try to answer them.
Of course, as a normal and damned capitalist I have to sell everything and everyone (including Motherland) to everyone who wants and do not want ...
And if you remember Item 1 and Item 6, then perhaps it can not do without it - it is necessary to create a huge mass of money under management, and all ways are good for this (of course except the Motherland and Motherland). However I want to begin with Russia and the CIS, then China, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela etc.. That is, to all normal people.
I think this could be an excellent asymmetrical response to the threats of the masses of savages.
And at $5000 my signals were valued in Russia :-). By the way this fellow is going to open a school in Moscow for beginners traders. I will let you know the result.
The systems are estimated at $10,000,000 to $100,000,000 in America. But they want full control :-) This goes against my plans - I think ...
And I gave my systems to Russia (Mr Putin and the Security Council) free of charge back in 2001-2002. They did not understand or believe me ...
Russian big business (for money) in 2006-2007 - busy.
So we just have to rely on the PEOPLE :-)!
And money is not printed on exchanges - it changes hands there.
Yes, systems can trade any financial instrument so the applications are limitless.
And the globally distributed architecture makes it unsinkable :)
I hope this is the way we solve the problem :)
And if you remember item 1 and item 6, then perhaps without this is not possible - it is necessary to create a huge mass of money under management and for this all ways are good (of course except for the Motherland). However I want to begin with Russia and the CIS, then China, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela etc.. That is, to all normal people.
I think this could be an excellent asymmetrical response to the threats of the masses of savages.
And at $5000 my signals were valued in Russia :-). By the way this fellow is going to open a school in Moscow for beginners traders. I will let you know the result.
The systems are estimated at $10,000,000 to $100,000,000 in America. But they want full control :-) This goes against my plans - I think ...
And I gave my systems to Russia (Mr Putin and the Security Council) free of charge back in 2001-2002. They did not understand or believe me ...
Russian big business (for money) in 2006-2007 - busy.
So we have to rely on the PEOPLE :-)!
In the past, you had to be famous to make a scandal,
but now you have to be a scandal to be famous..... ))))
Dominant motivation is what drives you or the system in a given environment and at a given time , directing the search for an "outcome" capable of satisfying the dominant need.
When applied to trading in different conditions and at different points in time, a trader may have different needs that excite some or a series of motivations. For example, if you sit on money - you almost certainly will be dominated by the need to enter the market with a certain operation, and if you sit on a symbol, you almost certainly will be motivated to close it, and especially when the position loses (for some traders, for others - "I will sit back").
From the viewpoint of programming, this is a kind of filter for searching in the memory or in the database for an image of the result and the program to achieve it.
From the viewpoint of a trader, sitting on a losing open positions, this filter sorts all accumulated experience to answer the question: how to survive in the current conditions. To one this experience says "Lose and start over" to another "Last time you closed and the market turned around". But in any case the dominant motivation produces an exploratory reaction that forces the trader to use all of the available information from the environment. Indicators, news, etc.
This information forms environment afferent, which is also filtered and searched by the dominant motivation. For example, if you lose on short positions you will probably be least interested in "sell" signals, you will look for signs of price minimum (result image) to buy(an act in the behavior program).
As part of the circumference afferentation may also include information from within the constraint or system, such as the current state (open positions)
At some point in time the price will hit the expected limit and you press the button - this was the trigger. However another scenario is also possible - the price has drastically changed for the worse, you got nervous and pressed the button without waiting for the expected limit. The sharp drop in price was the trigger which caused you to perform a behavioural act.
So, in general terms, this is about right, but the devil is in the details, which we will talk about next time.
Pterovich, thank you for your reply.
But, as is usually the case in a new field of knowledge, one answer begs two questions.
The most interesting ones are:
- How one large FS can consist of many FSs, and all have the same functionality? I.e., for example, several FSs with structure as in the figure above, serve as acceptors, or "decision-makers", etc. How does it work? (you, as I understand - all on one level)
- How can the FS override the interactions, achieving a result? I.e. by what algorithms does FS change connections at the "cellular" level, leading to learning and adaptation? (Your artificial brain doesn't do this, as I understand it? Probably just augmenting the memory block?)