NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 98
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Thank you. It gives you an idea. And in order to understand, you are right, you have to spend a disproportionate amount of time and effort.
By the way, the questions I ask are very broad indeed. But that doesn't mean I expect an exhaustive answer.
I, too, am a supporter of the Russian approach, which is why I ask general questions. Well, as you know, getting closer to the specifics happens gradually: first just an idea, then a general understanding, then an understanding of the main points, and so on. So everything goes according to plan. :-)
As far as I understand http://gointernational.com/sctchart/ is your website ?
It looks like it started functioning quite recently. From my point of view (i.e. from the point of view of a person who is very far from futures trading) it needs a lot of work to be filled with information. I hope you won't think that I'm going to teach you or criticize you. That's not the point. Since you provide a paid service, your claim "I make people rich" is a publicity stunt. Your service is hardly designed only for professionals or those who are already fully versed in the futures market. So it is, in principle, designed for all comers. This is confirmed by the fact that in your super-short help you have found it necessary to pay attention to beginners as well. In that case, they should be given 100 times more attention. The site should contain enough information for a person to quickly, efficiently and with minimal losses to enter the subject, get acquainted with its features and technologies, with its pitfalls. Not to mention the subsequent familiarity with your system and how to use it.
Maybe you think that two screens with real-time signal information is enough? I wouldn't say so. You are an expert on functional systems, and of course you understand that it is not the numbers that are important, but who, what and how will do with them. There is hardly a word about it on the website.
There's no other information either. For example, the results page is empty. There is, however, the link that you have given to demonstrate the trading results. It is very useful information, no doubt. But the results page should not contain individual trades, but all statistics which could illustrate the overall picture across all noteworthy cuts. This would be quite in line with the Russian approach to introducing their potential clients - from general results to specifics.
Unfortunately I couldn't find the terms of service either. It seems strange, the service is there, but there are no conditions for its provision. That is, after the trial, if the client wishes, his card will be charged, but how much is unknown. All right, it'll be a surprise. :-)
As you probably understand I look at your site through the eyes of a potential client. So, as a potential client I can't get an idea from your website whether I can take advantage of your offer and whether I need it. Although I certainly realise that the invention is brilliant. However, Einstein's theory of relativity is also a genius invention, but no mortal can take advantage of it. :-))
That's exactly what I'd like to see, since what has been so far is a conversation around rather than on the core. I, for example, am interested in both the topic of "intelligent systems" (whatever you mean by that) and philosophical reflection on life. Not to mention the possibility to communicate with normal people in their own language. :-) So, with your permission, in order.
Thank you, you have expressed all the things I wanted to ask.
:-)
I would like to draw the attention of the audience to one very serious gap in most interpretations of the Functional System:
The FS itself is only hardware for processing information, but the principles or software lie in the theory of Faster Reflection by the same genius author Peter Kuzmich and the equally genius philosopher A.I. Oparin.
... I have slightly transformed the FS architecture, separating the Control and Execution subsystems with a slightly different architecture and very substantial functional specialisation.The principle of preserving FS architecture at all levels of organization is fully preserved.
My programs used two but only one level survived.
... And in the rest - the principle of anticipatory reflection (in proverbial parlance - ability to predict the occurrence of biologically significant events on the basis of past experience), two subsystems based on associative memory, a lot of receptors analysing tick data, acceptor of result, etc.I have attached the FS diagram for convenience.
As I understand it:
1. Dominant motivation is the desire to open a trade.
2. ambient afferent is market up/down.
3. You process data ticks in a certain way. This means that the tics themselves excite a set of receptors. The trigger stimulus is a certain excitation of the receptors.
4. The system remembers past experiences, i.e. what excitation, what action and what result.
If all 4 items coincide, a certain decision is made. I.e., for example, the time is working, there are no limitations on opening of deals (1), the market grows (2), there is an impulse towards growth (for example) or indicators give good results (3), FS used to buy in the past under such conditions and the result was positive, then the decision to buy is made.
Then the decision to buy is made.
The profitability of this purchase is continuously compared with the planned value stored in the result acceptor.
In case of a discrepancy the system must reconsider/correct the decision. E.g. sell (i.e. close the buy), or sell and reverse the position.
____________________
Pterovich, am I understanding this correctly?
Of course I don't mean your implementation of FS. It's just interesting to understand the point, whether it's your example or this one.
I have attached the FS diagram for convenience.
As I understand it:
1. Dominant motivation is the desire to open a trade.
2. the contextual afferent is the rise/decline of the market.
3. You process data ticks in a certain way. This means that the tics themselves excite a set of receptors. The trigger stimulus is a certain excitation of the receptors.
4. The system remembers past experiences, i.e. what excitation, what action and what result.
If all 4 items coincide, a certain decision is made. I.e., for example, the time is working, there are no limitations on opening of deals (1), the market grows (2), there is an impulse towards growth (for example) or indicators give good results (3), FS used to buy in the past under such conditions and the result was positive, then the decision to buy is made.
Then the decision to buy is made.
The profitability of this purchase is continuously compared with the planned value stored in the result acceptor.
In case of a discrepancy the system must reconsider/correct the decision. E.g. sell (i.e. close the buy), or sell and reverse the position.
____________________
Pterovich, am I understanding this correctly?
Of course I don't mean your implementation of FS. Just interesting to get the gist of it, whether with your example or this one.
Dominant motivation is what drives you or the system in a given environment and at a given moment , directing the search for an "outcome" capable of satisfying the dominant need.
When applied to trading in different conditions and at different points in time, a trader may have different needs that excite some or a series of motivations. For example, if you sit on money - you almost certainly will be dominated by the need to enter the market with a certain operation, and if you sit on a symbol, you almost certainly will be motivated to close it, and especially when the position loses (for some traders, for others - "I will sit back").
From the viewpoint of programming, this is a kind of filter for searching in the memory or in the database for an image of the result and the program to achieve it.
From the viewpoint of a trader, sitting on a losing open positions, this filter sorts all accumulated experience to answer the question: how to survive in the current conditions. To one this experience says "Lose and start over" to another "Last time you closed and the market turned around". But in any case the dominant motivation produces an exploratory reaction that forces the trader to use all of the available information from the environment. Indicators, news, etc.
This information forms environment afferent, which is also filtered and searched by the dominant motivation. For example, if you lose on short positions you will probably be least interested in "sell" signals, you will look for signs of price minimum (result image) in order to buy(an act in the behavior program).
The environment afferentation may also include information from within the constraint or system, such as the current state (open positions)
At some point in time the price will hit the expected limit and you press the button - this was the trigger. However another scenario is also possible - the price has drastically changed for the worse, you got nervous and pressed the button without waiting for the expected limit. The sharp drop in price was the trigger which caused you to perform a behavioural act.
So, that's about right in general terms, but the devil is in the details, which we will talk about next time.
Unfortunately, I didn't find the terms of service either. It's strange, the service is there, but there are no conditions for providing it. That is, after the trial, if the client wishes, they will charge their card, but how much is unknown. All right, there will be a surprise. :-)
Thank you. It gives you an idea. And in order to understand, you are right, you have to spend a disproportionate amount of time and effort.
By the way, the questions I ask are very broad indeed. But that doesn't mean I expect an exhaustive answer.
I, too, am a supporter of the Russian approach, which is why I ask general questions. Well, as you know, getting closer to the specifics happens gradually: first just an idea, then a general understanding, then an understanding of the main points, and so on. So everything goes according to plan. :-)
As far as I understand http://gointernational.com/sctchart/ is your website ?
It looks like it started functioning quite recently. From my point of view (i.e. from the point of view of a person who is very far from futures trading) it needs a lot of work to be filled with information. I hope you won't think that I'm going to teach you or criticize you. That's not the point. Since you provide a paid service, your claim "I make people rich" is a publicity stunt. Your service is hardly designed only for professionals or those who are already fully versed in the futures market. So it is, in principle, designed for all comers. This is confirmed by the fact that in your super-short help you have found it necessary to pay attention to beginners as well. In that case, they should be given 100 times more attention. The site should contain enough information for a person to quickly, efficiently and with minimal losses to enter the subject, get acquainted with its features and technologies, its pitfalls. Not to mention the subsequent familiarity with your system and how to use it.
Maybe you think that two screens with real-time signal information is enough? I wouldn't say so. You are an expert on functional systems, and of course you understand that it is not the numbers that are important, but who, what and how will do with them. There is hardly a word about it on the website.
There's no other information either. For example, the results page is empty. There is, however, the link that you have given to demonstrate the trading results. It is very useful information, no doubt. But the results page should not contain individual trades, but all statistics which could illustrate the overall picture across all noteworthy cuts. This would be quite in line with the Russian approach to introducing their potential clients - from general results to specifics.
Unfortunately I couldn't find the terms of service either. It seems strange, the service is there, but there are no conditions for its provision. That is, after the trial, if the client wishes, his card will be charged, but how much is unknown. All right, it'll be a surprise. :-)
As you probably understand I look at your site through the eyes of a potential client. So, as a potential client I can't get an idea from your website whether I can take advantage of your offer and whether I need it. Although I certainly realise that the invention is brilliant. However, Einstein's theory of relativity is also a genius invention, but no mortal can take advantage of it. :-))
Dear Yurixx,
The page is indeed mine and it is, like the service, really new.
And the service is really paid, but the price has not been determined (so we're not talking about it and I have at least 30 days to sort it out).
Professionals are willing to pay $5000 per month, amateurs in America - $250-350 and to determine prices in Russia, I came to your portal.
And money doesn't always make a person rich :) And my statement applies only in part to advertising.
That's why I am sharing with you what I have gained over the years.
And in the direct (advertising) sense - use what I give you for the growth of your capital and I do not claim to your profit :)
Become richer!
I am not entirely convinced by the user level: as you see, one pro replaces 20 beginners and requires much less care.
In addition, the probability of its survival is much higher. So I'm in serious contemplation...
Overloading three tables with three volumes of instruction manual is not really serious.
In fact, this service is designed for those who are already working on S&P 500 e-mini, because probably only they can evaluate the offered service
(trader's heartdrops :), not for those who learn or play Forex.
I was mistaken about the sufficiency of two screens and "naked" figures :)
I give you on the chart what is conveniently gathered in different tables. Besides numbers in tables there are arrows - pointers to price moves that anticipate future market situation :)
I check the sufficiency of the information in the help, according to my nephew - a person far away from the market - he's probably in the first hundred of the best web-designers in the world http://regata.co.il/.
So, between racy web, using only these two pictures, after 2-3 explanations, he manages to zarabytat 5-20% per day, from the first day !
Which I am proud of! (Do I, after all this, have the right to believe that I am making people rich?)
Now he and his friend are writing questions, after which I will complete the help.
I would be very grateful to everyone for specific questions on the service.
I recommend just observing the activity on the screen and on your MT.
I think that after a couple of hours you will get the right picture on how to use the information provided.
I promise to add real-time pricing to the service for convenience
Regarding the "customer": Explore and resell - I invite you to become a distributor
(How about "make rich"?)
>> I wish you success from the bottom of my heart.
Я не совсем убеждем в ориентации на уровень пользователя: как видите один профессионал заменяет 20 новичков, а требует ухода значительно меньше.
There is no doubt that targeting professionals is more effective. Therefore, there are only two options in this situation. Either the newcomers have to wait for you to make up your mind, or you should give the necessary information to at least those newcomers who are interested in you one way or another, and then decide. In the suggestions you make, as well as in the stories you tell about your system, the opportunity to use your service plays no small part, because it is by its success that you prove Anokhin's theory and your correctness. But it is not realistic for a beginner to open an account with a suitable broker in 30 days and understand futures trading. And in order to figure it out in demo mode, someone still has to provide him with the necessary information and the missing experience to do so.
So, between the races, using only these two pictures, after 2-3 explanations he manages to earn 5-20% a day, from the first day !
I have highlighted the key words in this quote. Absolutely no need to write 2, let alone 3 volumes of instructions. But without an explanation of what each of the numbers in your pictures means, each of the arrows, the probability of what it counts there, and most importantly, how to use it correctly - without that the cartoons are empty. All the things that seem self-evident to you are completely incomprehensible to a trialist. If you take it for yourself as an axiom, you can quickly and effectively improve your site to a state where it really works.
80% is enough to get you into position ? А 50% ? Should we go in from the bottom or as high as possible ? And go out on the high side? What if the probability changes ? What is "may buy", is it a buy or not yet ? May is "may, in the sense of having the right". There is also can - "can, in the sense of being able to". So the interpretation of your "may buy" is not at all obvious. You have three levels of possible actions there. How do they fit together? Do they influence each other or are they completely independent ? Your Trend shows everything down, not one level up. And those three levels all say "may buy" - what to do ?
Such "stupid" questions arise from everyone, who does not deal with futures, at the first glance at your images. Who, or where, should he get the answer from? Do you have to be clever? One doesn't need 2 volumes to explain it all, 2 pages of coherent, connected explanations is enough. I think a professional will also need explanations, not 2, but 1 page. Can't do without it anyway.
...
On the chart I am giving you something that is in a very handy form summarized in various tables and in the tables in addition to numbers there are arrows - pointers to the direction of price movement, ahead of the future state of the market
If you really give it to people, give it to them so they can use it. So that it doesn't end up like the fable "the fox and the crane".
And I've watched the activity on the screen - everything is good, everything is beautiful and everything is clear. In general terms. But you should not trade in generalities, but very specifically - who better than you to know that.
Either newcomers have to wait for you to make up your mind, or you should give the necessary information to at least those newcomers who are interested in you one way or another, and then decide.
... To understand futures trading is not realistic at all. And to figure it out in demo mode, someone still needs to give him the necessary information and lack of experience to do so.
... But without an explanation of what each of the numbers in your pictures means, each of the arrows, the probability of what it is there, and most importantly, how to use it correctly - without that the cartinks are empty.
... If you take it as an axiom, you can quickly and effectively improve your site to a state where it really works.
80% is enough to get into position ? А 50% ? Should we go in from the bottom or as high as possible ? And go out on the high side? What if the probability changes ? What is "may buy", is it a buy or not yet ? May is "may, in the sense of having the right". There is also can - "can, in the sense of being able to". So the interpretation of your "may buy" is not at all obvious. You have three levels of possible actions there. How do they fit together? Do they influence each other or are they completely independent ? Your Trend shows everything down, not one level up. And those three levels all say "may buy" - what to do ?
... From whom or where should they find the answer ? Do you have to be clever ?
...And I watched the activity on the screen - everything is good, everything is beautiful and everything is clear. In general terms. But you have to trade not in generalities, but very concretely - who better than you to know it.
... "Why sell for money a system that makes a disproportionately large amount of money itself? Why don't you try answering it?Dear Yurixx
Yurixx: I will answer your queries and quote the Help:
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"Scenario Trader Projections" is a set of signals and price limits generated by an automated trading system - "Scenario Trader".
"STP" is designed to be used in conjunction with YOUR trading system and its analytical tools.
With a high degree of probability, "STP" predicts market behavior in the near future: it calculates expected trends and price limits.
This information, combined with indications from your trading system, can significantly improve the efficiency of your decision-making.
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-- This is a beginner's guide to what it is, what it's used for and the prerequisites (in other words you need to have your own trading system and analytical tools)
The system predicts the market behavior in the near future, which in Anokhin's terms or in Erics understanding makes up the surrounding afferent and trigger stimuli.
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Thetime intervals of the predictions are not known, but the limits, and trends are very reliable. You can check them by observing theTrend table which consists of predicted but not yet achieved prices.
That means that if the STP is expecting any High price limit, but the real price has not yet reached its target, that prediction will be placed in the spreadsheet(Trend) above the direction indicators ( ).
TheLow will be placed underneath the trend curves accordingly.
As soon as the real price reaches the predicted limit, it is immediately removed from the table. This fact proves, that the prediction was correct.
Prices, which were not reached during the current session, are very likely to be reached during the next one or during overnight trading.
It allows a trader to create a strategy for the next day, knowing in advance the expected price limits and market trends.
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Explanations of the TREND table
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- are pointers to the current trend (direction of movement). The left bar is a pointer to the dominant long term trend and the right bar is a pointer to a possible trend change.
Foraggressive 'intraday' traders , short-term real-time predictions are offered, measured in four intervals of market strength, published in thePredictions table.
The blue cells in this table show the expected upper limits and upward direction, while the red cells show the expected lower limits and downward direction respectively. The weakest power interval is on the left. The last cell in the table is a percentage confidence of the system in the predicted direction. 100% corresponds to full confidence.
The arrows represent the direction.
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Explanations of the table "PREDICTIONS" or "PROJECTIONS"
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"ST" brain analyses market dynamics by measuring the current forces driving price, associating them with a sequence of market conditions.
When ST recognizes a familiar sequence of market states it extracts market forces and calculates the corresponding expected price limits (range) and trends to be expected sometime in the future.
Smaller market forces affect the market more frequently but in a smaller range of expected prices, while larger forces affect the market over longer time frames and on a larger scale of expectations.
Therefore, a trader must decide on which interval to play.
The general rule of thumb is to wait for the appropriate limit (do not use a directional arrow) to enter the market, analyzing the current trends using all available tools before actually doing it.
The combination of trends (combination) in all four intervals also carries useful information that different versions of ST use.
Once this is done, immediately set up a stop-loss and profit exit, according to your own strategy, analysis or indicators, or using our limits.
You can move(if your trading software allows it) the exit price according to our predicted trends and limits, to avoid taking substantial losses or increasing your profits.
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clear enough how it works and how to use it
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Tips for beginners:
Remember!
Any, even the most advanced tool in the hands of a DIKAR is just a piece of hardware or software!
Therefore, before you go on various professional forums and scold our service make sure you understand what it is all about, so as not to look like a savage in the eyes of others!
1. Take your time and try to adjust your intellect to our tools.
2. Start by projecting your strategy, using the "Trend" table and prediction history for next day trading.
3. Check your predictions against the CME forecasts.
4. be sure to define your entry/exit limits, risks and execute your strategy with iron discipline no matter what.
5. Use "paper " trading until you feel confident enough to enter the market with real money.
6. Live trading results of our automated trading system "ST", which are published in real time under the heading "RT Trades".
7. Do not use the chart as a tool to create or modify your strategy - all the same information but in numerical values is contained in the relevant tables.
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This is a behavioural program for beginners.
The only thing missing is "NOT BUY/SELL", "May BUY", "May SELL".
The explanation is very simple: you can BUY/SELL, you are motivated to buy and you need a trigger to hit the button (May BUY/SELL).
"NOT BUY/SELL" is the braking stimulus to stop you pressing the button at the wrong moment, regardless of your motivation
... Excuse me, I have to run... I'll finish this later.
Observe - you only need 2-3 days :)
>> Good luck!
Thank you for the wishes.
Thank you for copying the help text from your website here, but I don't think that was necessary. I have read the help and find it too general, or rather not specific enough and practically useful. Beginner's tips, especially items 1 - 5 are general phrases from any beginner's guide. This does not diminish their value, but makes their publication on your site almost meaningless. Something more relevant to your system could well have been put in their place. Tip #6 is difficult to use, because there is no RT Trades link on your site. There is an RT Chart link , but, as you know, that is quite different.
Временные интервалы предсказаний не известны, но пределы, и тенденции весьма надежны. Вы можете проверить их наблюдая за таблицей тенденции (Trend), которая состоит из предсказанных, но еще не достигнутых цен.
It means that if STP was expecting any high price limit, but the real price hasn't reached its target yet, this prediction will be inserted in the table(Tread) above the direction pointers ( )
When I observed your system, the situation was that there were 5 levels below the directional signs and nothing above them. In the common understanding this would mean that the trend is going downwards. If I understand this quote from your help, it means that the bottom 5 levels were predicted but never reached. And the absence of levels above the pointers means that all predicted levels have already been reached and there are no new levels predicted upwards at the moment. Is this true ?
What do you call tools in this case ? In the forex market, this term refers to positions that can be traded at a given broker, for example, different currency pairs. In your case, it may be S&P futures with different expiration dates. Or, do you mean technical analysis tools? If this is the latter, then which tools are meant: your own or different data of your system?
And the percentages your system shows, to which of the Projections levels do they refer?
And what is Prediction History and why is it not mentioned anywhere ? If this data is relevant to the work of professionals (because it was put in ST Pro), then why is it present without any explanation on the main screen as well?
Why are there 4 Projections levels, 3 in the trend column of the main directional screen and only two in the same column of the RT Chart? Doesn't it have something to do with how to use it all ?
There are actually a lot more questions, and they have a direct bearing on the practicalities of trading and using your system. I don't think you'll want to go to any other source of information to find the answers to them.
And then there's the best part:
"STP is designed to be used in conjunction with YOUR trading system and its analytical tools.
-- There's enough information here for a beginner to know what it is, what it's used for and the prerequisites (in other words, you need to have your own trading system and analytical tools)
And these two statements make talking about your system simply meaningless to newbies. If it is really a prerequisite, then I do not understand what doubts you wrote here about user level orientation. I think everything has been solved a long time ago and you should not bother newbies, they have nothing to do on your site. Or do you expect that a beginner can not only make all the preparations in 30 days in the trial, not only learn all the subtleties of futures trading (the most difficult and risky market of all possible financial markets), but also develop a strategy?
Against this background the following quote from your previous post looks very meaningful:
So, between the racy webs, using only these two pictures, after 2-3 explanations he manages to zarabyt 5-20% per day, from the first day !
Is your nephew a genius? Or has he already traded in futures? And if he is a beginner, as this quote implies, does he already have his own strategy? I don't think so.
Most likely he just got clear instructions from you on how to use your system and is using it rather mechanically for the time being. And over time, if he continues to use it, perhaps he will reach a deeper understanding of the futures market, and then his own strategy will follow. This is what I wrote: a beginner, in order to understand all this quickly, he must get not only the explanations of what is what, but also the examples of actions that implement the correct, effective use of the system. Then you won't have to write anything about "DICAR", and your statements like "use what I give you to grow your capital", and about "make you rich", will be much closer to the truth.
.
If you find anything here harsh, it's not because of my critical attitude. As is easy to understand, I have a positive view of the system you have proposed. However, I don't see the necessary details to make use of it without risking to be caught in the trap of my own ignorance. In short - I don't want to be DICARED by your fault. There is a famous saying that is relevant to the situation: "Details don't decide anything. They solve everything."