FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications 2015(continued) - page 1353
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The point is simple - all volume differences will be offset by arbitrage. And if the quid is rising, it is rising in all markets. And, accordingly, we need to invest volumes in one direction in all markets, which means that it does not matter in which market the volumes are monitored. You don't give a fuck about volumes on forex, it is enough to see the real volumes somewhere on the CME or on Forts, or in London or Frankfurt or Shanghai. The same actors are everywhere and their plans do not differ. How can you move the price in sync if you are running out of sync? And to understand this, you just have to look at pricing theory, under what conditions the possibility of arbitrage arises. Then your mind will be at ease.
You're the ones spinning on forex, while the real guys are TRANSLATING capitals. Grandpa Marx said that.
About the chip.
At the moment there is a swap agreement between the world's leading economies. That means that if the ECB runs out of liquidity (USD goes up, everybody wants to buy it, but the ECB doesn't have it) they open a swap at the current price for any time and any amount. The Americans transfer the money to the ECB in the requested amount, and when they are no longer needed, the money comes back at the same price. The result is a bottomless barrel for interventions. And that means that currencies (six in total) will walk in the corridor as long as the swap is on.
According to the ECB, the swap was last switched on on November 4 and switched off on November 11. The amount can be seen here http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html .
For those who are interested, read Kubkaramazov's blog. It's all laid out in detail.
Fairy tales are all for children, if it were that simple, they wouldn't sit around and think. And the world would be a peaceful place. But I do not see it, especially according to analysts' forecasts.
As for the real guys, if they were pouring over their hard-earned capital, they would be priceless. Garbachev and Yeltsin alone are worth a lot, not to mention Lenin. And there, if you count them in history, they are a pond, a pond.
But let's read it, there is no such thing as an extra grain.
The point is simple - all volume differences will be offset by arbitrage. And if the quid is rising, it is rising in all markets. And, consequently, we need to inject volumes in one direction in all markets, which means that it does not matter in which market volumes are monitored. You don't give a fuck about volumes on forex, it is enough to see the real volumes somewhere on the CME or on Forts, or in London or Frankfurt or Shanghai. The same actors are everywhere and their plans do not differ. How can you move the price in sync if you are running out of sync? And to understand this, you just have to look at pricing theory, under what conditions the possibility of arbitrage arises. Then your mind will be at ease.
You're the ones spinning on forex, while the real guys are TRANSLATING capitals. Grandpa Marx said that.
About the chip.
At the moment there is a swap agreement between the world's leading economies. That means that if the ECB runs out of liquidity (USD goes up, everybody wants to buy it, but the ECB doesn't have it) they open a swap at the current price for any time and any amount. The Americans transfer the money to the ECB in the requested amount, and when they are no longer needed, the money comes back at the same price. The result is a bottomless barrel for interventions. And that means that currencies (six in total) will walk in the corridor as long as the swap is on.
According to the ECB, the swap was last switched on on November 4 and switched off on November 11. The amount can be seen here http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html .
For those who are interested, read Kubkaramazov's blog. It's all laid out there.
Good evening.
The topic of swaps came up. Evgeniya gave some links:
Evgenya1And the story ishttp://m.fondsk.ru/news/2014/09/19/v...-ii-29553.html
Evgenya1 2015.07.18 20:40 # RU
Might still be of interest check out zoghtr://www.iep.ru/files/text/nauchni...RVV_1-2015.pdf
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/61551/page52
It arose in the context of the following questions, on which many pages were written (seehttps://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/61551/page52),
but except for Evgeniya, who gave these links, nobody wrote anything sensible,
1) Does the ECB have dollar reserves ? (I think not, and swaps are sufficient).
2) Has the ECB ever made direct currency interventions in history (apparently not, there is no sense in it and google does not find it, but Strange thinks that is all the ECB does (exaggerated somewhat) ).
maybe you know something ?
but how to apply it to trading in any case is not clear...
PS
about arbitrage - you're right, of course, but I found it interesting the one subtlety that was mentioned here (if I understand correctly) :
example:
the hryvnia-bucks futures in Kiev and in Moscow had very different rates at the same time - and there was no way this could be arbitrated as it was a futures, not a spot and traded on different platforms...
And you watch. tick profiles don't differ much from futures ones.
In appearance, yes, they look alike. But that's a "derivative of a derivative" of sorts.
It's better to use the first derivative, if we can't know the value itself.
Strange, thank you. The question is, when?
Ilya, what do you say? I'm interested in next week.
Fairy tales are for children, if it were that simple, they wouldn't be sitting around wondering. And the world would be a peaceful place. But I do not see it, especially according to analysts' forecasts.
As for the real guys, if they were pouring over their hard-earned capital, they would be priceless. Garbachev and Yeltsin alone are worth a lot, not to mention Lenin. And there, if you count by history, such real pond, pond.
But let's read it, there is no such thing as an extra grain.
That's because such analysts have the same brains.
Do you really think Gorbachev and Eltsin are real assholes? I'm embarrassed for you.
The real ones are bnp pariba, barclays, gp morgan chase etc. Strange was right.
Good evening.
The topic of swaps came up. Eugenia gave links:
Evgenya1And the storyhttp://m.fondsk.ru/news/2014/09/19/v...-ii-29553.html
Evgenya1 2015.07.18 20:40 # RU
Might still be of interest check out zoghtr://www.iep.ru/files/text/nauchni...RVV_1-2015.pdf
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/61551/page52
It arose in the context of the following questions, on which many pages were written (seehttps://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/61551/page52),
but except for Evgeniya, who gave these links, nobody wrote anything sensible,
1) Does the ECB have dollar reserves ? (I think not, and swaps are sufficient).
2) Has the ECB ever made direct currency interventions in history (apparently not, there is no sense in it and google does not find it, but Strange thinks that is all the ECB does (exaggerated somewhat) ).
maybe you know something ?
but how to apply it to trading in any case is not clear...
PS
about arbitrage - you're right, of course, but I found it interesting the one subtlety that was mentioned here (if I understand correctly) :
example:
the hryvnia-bucks futures in Kiev and in Moscow had very different rates at the same time - and there was no way this could be arbitrated as it was a futures, not a spot and traded on different platforms...
I still suggest you read http://kubkaramazoff.livejournal.com/ I read the whole archive together with the comments in about a week. If you can handle it, you won't need my comms. And the questions will go away.
On arbitrage.
To arbitrage, you have to have two accounts on both exchanges. There's no other way. And then the possibility of arbitrage will be limited only by costs (commissions).
On interventions - LTRO is an intervention. The dough was distributed to the comp banks and they injected it into the stock exchange. After the swap agreement, a new currency was actually formed from the six participating currencies, the dollar was devalued, which reduced the debt service burden on the budget. But the problem remained. The link will confirm.
I saw your thread once in the mountains on the channels of some Profi in the chart (I don't remember his surname). I trade solely on the chart, I cannot help but send me the link to the theory of this profi. You may use it in your own time but you will have to wait and see what happens when you get stuck in the villa.
Search for Vadimcha and a dozen links will pop up. You'll find them all.
In appearance, yes, they look alike. But that's a "derivative of a derivative" of sorts.
It's better to use the first derivative, if we can't find out the value itself.