For the buyers and customers of Expert Advisors (trading robots), this is dedicated. - page 2
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It's pretty stupid to run an EA on ALL available history. What worked great in the 70's does not work at all in the 2000's.
The starting post is a very good chart which shows that the TS - SHOULD NOT be tested on "all" history. Any TS is built for a certain market behaviour, and should be used exactly when the market has that behaviour. Of course, in each TS there should be a "stop-cock", which clearly indicates that the system has stopped working and needs to be at least revised, or even replaced.
As for the purchase of robots - I do not see anything wrong with it. The trader builds the TS, and in order not to perform the routine actions of its usage, orders an Expert Advisor that will precisely execute its rules. By the way, the Expert Advisor should also track the "stop crane" itself and give a signal to the trader about the changes in the market behavior.
Laryx, let's not go to extremes!)))
The specifics of trading in the Punic Wars are unlikely to interest anyone. I'm talking about modern history. But in the historical interval of the last ten years the TS should work.
To use your TS "when the market has this behavior and of itself, every TS must have a "stopcock", which clearly shows that the system has stopped working" - idyllic). If there is such a TS that has a "stopcock" to clearly identify the type of trend - it is simply invaluable. Perhaps you imply that you yourself can determine the state of the market and change the variant of your TS... Unfortunately, so far few people have succeeded in this matter.
I have nothing against buying robots, either. But when buying (ordering) a robot, one has to understand that: 1:
1. the fact that the algorithm to create a robot is based on clear rules, and what are those rules?
2. Understand how this robot works?
3. What financial results is it able to provide?
4. What risks to take?
5. Can the rules of the robot be improved in any way?
... And, preferably, answer all these questions before you lose your deposit, not during or after the process. There are thousands of people who trust their money to a trading robot without knowing the answers to these questions. The mathematical model is just a way to get a detailed answer to all the points in order to save and multiply your money.
Bottom line.
Statistically, 98% of all traders lose the money they invest in trading.
Don't you want to show first how you trade successfully?
Don't you want to show how you trade successfully first?
Don't you want to show how you trade successfully first?
"Show first" - "why and before what"?
My main job is not trading or creating Expert Advisors, but a complex mathematical, statistical, etc. analysis of information.
I do not teach anyone to trade and I do not claim to be the only one who can do it. And am I selling you something?
98% is official statistics, which, I did not come up with.
For instance, according to statistics, around 35,000 people die on Russian roads every year - a figure comparable to our losses in the war in Afghanistan...
And until road conditions change, the order of figures will be exactly the same. A little more or a little less, but not 10,000 or 100,000 people.
Maybe 34,000, maybe 36,000... but that will be the order of the numbers. It's the same with the statistics of money loss in FOREX, however unpleasant the truth may be.
On the other hand, you can observe characteristic price movements for which the statistics are meaningful and take advantage of it, making profit.
Also...
Understand, my task is not to "create TS for you," along the way offering some arcane rules, but to give an understanding of the need for optimization and
a detailed check of what you are willing to work with, investing or planning to invest real money. And the very mathematical
model I've mentioned here a hundred times already is a great tool for that.
This way a lot of people can, at the very least, avoid losing their money...
... And the very mathematical
model I've mentioned here a hundred times before...
Any Expert Advisor is an individual set of clear rules for making a trading decision to open and close an order, to enter the market, and to exit the market. The totality of these failures form the TS (trading strategy or trading system) embedded in the program. However,
First, most people who buy or order EAs do not know the language of EAs, i.e., MQL. Therefore, the buyer or the orderer gets a "pig in a poke" and cannot check the rules written in it, not to mention more complex systems, such as those using artificial intelligence. Then he wonders why the trading robot is showing completely different results.
Secondly, the customer (the buyer), if necessary, cannot change these rules without assistance.
Thirdly, he cannot change the set of rules himself.
Fourthly. Checking of the robot on large time intervals takes too much time, so such checks are done by very few traders. And we have to check every Expert Advisor on all available history. Something wrong, the Expert Advisor shows a loss, we order a rework or change the EA and run the test again, but it is long, inconvenient, and it costs time and money again. Those who have tried it understand what I'm talking about.
Fifth, the profit diagram of most trading systems resembles a saw-toothed pattern, i.e. if tested on a certain interval, the EA may show good results (but not over the whole interval) and this depends not only and not so much on the trend direction and type, but on other reasons. See the example below.
Finally, most customers do not have a clear, tested TS. In this case, they can only rely on the advertising and authority of the Expert Advisor creator.
Proven trading strategy is a strategy tested on historical data from 10(!) or more years.
Proven profitable trading strategy is a proven trading strategy, in which you:
What is the exit?
Any logical decision-making rules, dependencies, indicators, can be described in the form of an accurate mathematical model, and by creating this model, you can test it on an arbitrarily large array of historical data and evaluate the test results.
Of course, the formation of an accurate mathematical model, writing additional verification programs and various checks take considerable time. Sometimes one week, sometimes several - it's a lot of work. But...
1. Subsequent checking of the ready model on all available history takes from fractions of a second to several seconds, unlike an Expert Advisor.
2. Further, you can do everything with the model. Change settings, rules, sets of rules, etc., while immediately getting visual charts of results of such changes, which will allow you to write a correct profitable Expert Advisor, which will not need to be changed later.
3. In contrast to the Expert Advisor, mathematical models allow you to get very quick, accurate and complete information, checking results of any trading hypotheses, assumptions, systems.
Result.
According to statistics 98% of all traders lose the money they invested in trading. They are driven by excitement, not cold calculation. When deciding to invest, for example in FOREX, even a few thousand dollars, and use a trading system or an Expert Advisor, you must understand in exact figures the risk that you are taking. Testing any trading system with mathematical models will give a huge number of people this understanding and, at the very least, an opportunity not to lose their money. And for those who are already working and making profit, this check will allow them to get the most out of their TS.
In conclusion, I will give you an old example. I made this mathematical model back in 2000. The time horizon - 1999. - The time horizon is 1999.
Currency pair EURUSD, time frame H1.
Here is such a funny picture ... Pay attention that this trading system, which showed beautiful results from year 2000 to 2004, and which brought its clients (well-to-do people from one famous capitalist country) little less than 50 000 Pt over 4 years of work, became unprofitable.
The reversal from a stable profit to a net loss did not happen in a month or a week... or even in a day. It happened in 1 hour! It wasn't an abrupt change in trend type and direction. No. It was an instant rule change. It is impossible to trace such a change visually on a candlestick chart. Only... let's call it a "market architect" can change the rules this way. And you, can you track it?
Well? ))))))))))
Does anyone else have any doubts about the need for complex mathematical analysis of trading systems?
Protect yourself from possible mistakes before you put serious real money on your trading account!
Do you offer your services in complex analysis?
Or share your sad experience of "losing" your deposit?
Are you offering your services in complex analysis?
Or are you sharing your sad experience of "losing" your deposit?
What is unclear is the programmer of the means to analyse the TS, which (analysis) is proposed to be built between the customer and the robot programmer. If your TS passes the analysis - the price of the robot will increase by the price of the analysis. If it does not pass - you only pay the analyser, and you do not have to pay the bot programmer
There are three questions:
- How reliable is this model? Its quality also depends upon the quality of the matrix's programmer and TOR builder.
- what are the advantages of such an analysis compared to testing a bot? The advantages of testing a robot is that the possibility of practical use of the TS is tested by available MQL opportunities and brokers' software, rather than a purely theoretical model.
- How much does it cost?
There is one law on the market: "A Crowd MUST LOSE". And the operation of this law does not depend on whether you have a mathematical model or not. :)
On the "Crowd MUST LOSE" TS, you can easily build a mathematical model :)
Here's how ?...
If it is that simple, then please demonstrate such a model.