Repetitive patterns and other patterns - page 28
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Everyone seems to be bummed to look for patterns. Every formation is unique and that's it.
But seriously, there is no basis for the existence of predictive potential in complex patterns.
If for example one can model a series in such a way that there is a weak dynamic feedback on the background of dominating independent increments, then why should there be such complex patterns for this process? The simplest difurcations modulating the increments depending on the deviations from the MO and previous increments are quite sufficient. There is no point in considering the distributions of increments up to the first break, roughly speaking we are only dealing with half a wave all the time, what's there next is pointless to consider.
PS: Mr gpwr would still like to hear. He said some competent things about the theory of pattern recognition, one can see that he didn't just read it and understood it in depth. But how applicable it is to the market is a question...
In my experience neural algorithms, more exactly, pattern recognition algorithms that were obtained by neural network training give pretty good results, but you can always make a " remake" of some simple oscillator logic and seasonal filters that provide 95% similar inputs. Also makes me think that quality is practically independent of number of neurons and layers, 9 neurons or 900 makes no difference. Hence the conclusion that most likely complex patterns are not seen. IMHO
So far I've abandoned forex: I created a successful mt5 EA that trades by momentum, but there is nowhere to use it as there are no mt5 brokers here in the US. Now I'm more interested in predicting US economy for my own "hedge fund" to avoid 2008. This is a tipster's paradise: 2000 input series with different economic indicators, most data has been collected since 1947, downloaded for free from stlouisfed website (FRED) directly into matlab, there are already prepared Matlab DSGE models(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium) used by US government to predict their economy, I have a better model based on rarefied coding. So far I'm predicting the economy for the quarter ahead. Later I'll teach the model to look further into the future (something like Goodman model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodwin_model_(economics) with additions from Steven Keen www.aeaweb.org/aea/2011conference/program/retrieve.php?pdfid=185).
PS Patterns in the market exist. My aim is to finish my economics model and attach a pattern based market model to it and it will be quite nice. You could start a public hedge fund. Dreams, dreams ...
It depends on what is meant by the term "pattern". In general, any formalizable calculation based on past data can be classified or reduced to a pattern. And if we consider that there are market inefficiencies that are nothing but patterns that have statistical predictive advantage, the existence of patterns can be considered proven.
But it applies more to finite difference formations, which have cleaner components than cumulative sums. It's a lot easier to do calculations with them too. Even the rentina differentiates and transforms on a wavelet-like basis the receptor data before being sent to the brain.
PS Thanks to the topicstarter, the topic is really interesting.
Everyone seems to be bummed to look for patterns. Every formation is unique and that's it.
But seriously, there is no basis for the existence of predictive potential in complex patterns.
If for example one can model a series in such a way that there is a weak dynamic feedback on the background of dominating independent increments, then why should there be such complex patterns for this process? The simplest difurcations modulating the increments depending on the deviations from the MO and previous increments are quite sufficient. There is no point in considering the distributions of increments up to the first break, roughly speaking we are only dealing with half a wave all the time, what's there next is pointless to consider.
PS: Mr gpwr would still like to hear. He said some competent things about the theory of pattern recognition, one can see that he didn't just read it and understood it in depth. But how applicable it is to the market is a question...
In my experience neural algorithms, more exactly, pattern recognition algorithms that were obtained by neural network training give pretty good results, but you can always make a " remake" of some simple oscillator logic and seasonal filters that provide 95% similar inputs. Also makes me think that quality is practically independent of number of neurons and layers, 9 neurons or 900 makes no difference. Hence the conclusion that most likely complex patterns are not seen. IMHO
Stop bullshitting))) Bullshit.
I've noticed a tendency in this forum, as soon as there is an interesting post, there are certain individuals who work off their salary, I do not know how much "10 cents" or "$ 1" per post.
I understand if *they* wrote something useful, but it's all the same old nonsense from a set of standard phrases in their vocabulary.
Cut the crap))) Bullshit.
I've noticed a tendency in this forum, as soon as an interesting post appears, there are certain individuals who earn their wages, I don't know how much "10 cents" or "$1" per post.
I understand if *fucking wrote something useful, but all the same, empty nonsense from a set of standard phrases in their vocabulary.
Hee hee)) You will never be able to recover from the great shameful exposure of your martingale grail that you accidentally found yourself, you can call me names after every post of mine, it's all the same to you. The eternal facepalm is only washed away by blood, or monetary offerings.
Hee hee)) You'll never be able to recover from the great shameful revelation of your martingale grail, which you accidentally found in your own possession, you can call me names after every post of mine, it's all for naught. The eternal facepalm is only washed away by blood, or monetary offerings.
I strongly advise you to stop with the weed)).
Tops like yours are a clear consequence of it.
As for disclosure)) Ordinary forum reader himself will draw his own conclusions.
Your conclusions are of little interest to me, because I have good reason to believe that there is a whole system that trashes everything that is not beneficial to the system.
As for the "monetary donations" $50 suit you?
Nothing personal.
I strongly advise you to stop with the weed.)
Such topics as yours are a clear consequence of it.
As for disclosure)) The average reader of forums, he will draw his own conclusions.
Your conclusions are of little interest to me because I have good reason to believe that there is a whole system that trashes everything that is not beneficial to the system.
As for the gratuity, would $50 suit you?
Nothing personal.
Heh-heh-heh :)
Are they giving out fifty bucks to everyone here or just to those who bite their legs?
SZY You guys should go fight in another branch, you have too little place on the forum, a branch of a good. At least out of respect for the topicstarter.
iModify:
I have good reason to believe that there is an entire system in place to troll everything that does not benefit the system.
It's hardly an organised system, in the sense that some uncles are paying for trolling to some suckers. I think this is self-organization because everyone realizes consciously or not, the more people who are misled, the more profitable they are. I don't know why they do it and they cannot do it properly, I will ask them: first they omit Martingale, then they say that all expert advisors are bullshit, then they proclaim signals, profitable PAMM accounts and asset management in general, and finish with saying that the system trading is a myth and the market is not predictable by TA and FA.
I feel that soon I myself will become like this, but my conscience is still struggling. But it is inevitable.
So do not pay attention. The dog barks and the caravan comes:) While you are on the right track, do not let yourself be broken by these provocateurs.