A-B-C-D Trade - page 131
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It was difficult deciphering the P.M. and Secretary's statements describing radiation. Now we are also seeing news flash that Reactor #4 has readiation leak.
The JPN225 (CFD) now trading below 8,600, which is down more than 15% since event. Eur/USD at 1.3954, in area of major 50% fib as per previous post.
Absolute panic in Nikkei, and other Asian markets. Nikkei below 9,000, but is closed for lunch. The Nikkei futures is trading around 8,400.
The SPX500 CFD broke out of a triangle and is at 1271 and looking to test Jan 31st low of 1268. If this index stays down there, it may be a prelude to the American open to the S&P 500.
EUR/USD retraced 38.2% and now looking to test that low of 1.3935 and extend to 1.3910/13.
Nikkei reopened from lunch and plunged further to 8,424, down 12% for day and follows 6% decline from previous day.
German Zew, released at 10:00 GMT missed projections, sending EUR/USD further down and touching 1.3854. The large ABC swings produced a FE 61.8 of 1.3879 that was hit immediately after Zew.
FE 100 = 1.3838
Applying the SQ_9 to EUR/USD 1-Hour, we have the 112.5-degree level at 1.3854. Next levels:
135 = 1.3825
157.5 = 1.3796
180 = 1.3766
Moved fibo fan from Mar 14th 09:30 low to Mar 11th 10:15 low of 1.3751. High moved to Mar 15th 1.3993. Pair's most recent pivot was at fan's 61.8
A 32-EMA is also plotted on 15-min and provided resistance during last pullback at 09:30, which bounced off bottom of 38.2 fan line.
EUR/USD now at 50% horizontal fib of 1.3876. Attached chart is GMT+1.
***
The U.S. Futures indices continue to be negative in 2% range, which will carry over into open. FOMC at 18:15 might contain verbiage, thus exercise caution.
JPN225 (CFD) made a large 50% pullback to form a possible point C.
FE 61.8 = 8225
FE 78.6 = 8054
FE 100 = 7837
Nikkei now at 8605, worst 2-day plunge since 1987. Earlier, a chartist had mentioned possibility of Nikkei returning to old support levels of 7000.
Other Asian nations scanning food imported from Japan for radiation. Auto makers and other manufacturers shut down for a few days to assess damage, etc. Unfortunately, their stock is down up to 25%.
Note U.S. had Daylight Savings Time and moved up 1 hour this week. Japan and China doesn't use DST. Europe moving later in March. Here's link:
Upcoming Daylight Saving Time Clock Changes
Here's a link to a Reuter's recap, via Yahoo:
Japan nuclear crisis sparks selling from equities to commodities - Yahoo! Finance
**
Metals are down, including GOLD ($1405). The article cites risk aversion. Gold is following EUR/USD down. Oil also down ( and priced in USD) and broke support (USOIL CFD) of 98.45.
""People are going for risk aversion, so investors are liquidating assets and positions including in crude oil and gold," said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Tokyo-based Astmax Co Ltd."
The Australia Dollar, which is commodities-sensitive is down below parity with USD. AUD/USD made a 138,2 extension from Feb 28th low and Mar 1st high plot. Now at .9896, a 300-pip drop.
Credit rating agency Moody's had earlier held a no-comment, but have made statement "Japan is closer to tipping point". They had downgraded the country's rating earlier this year.
SPX, a CFD similar to S&P 500 Futures, has made a 161.8 regular extension to 1263, from Feb 18th/24th high/low plot, after breaking out of triangle.
The triangle indicator plots possible take-profit levels. In this case it is 1216/18 to downside, per chart's blue horizontal lines.
The other numbers refer to previous 138.2 and 161.8 extension to upside.
Yen strength is due to repatriation. Investors unwinding risky investments (such as oil and gold), and converting money back to Yen.
The Bank of Japan (Japan's Central Bank) has made statements that is it monitoring the markets. This is warning and amounts to verbal intervention.
There are some that think BOJ had made physical intervention on Yen during Asian session. BOJ policy is not to comment. In these cases, they would buy USD/JPY.
Japanese and U.S. bonds, along with USD and CHF are flight to safety investment vehicles.
Long night and multiple sessions for us as panic set in during the Asian market as mentioned.
Our last post had chart plot with 61.8 fibo fan which held up as support along with horizontal 50% fib. Once it rose above the 32-EMA on 15-min, a change of direction was confirmed. This occurred at 13:30 GMT, the time U.S. gets active.
The attached 4-hour chart is an update and shows the 200% extension, near the 203-degree level as top. Jan 9th 1.2863 is start price for SQ_9 indicator. First approach to that previous high area will produce a bounce down. The aforementioned long-term interval trend line has acted as resistance.
After the markets digested FOMC, we can see EUR/USD had pivoted near significant 1.3956 and attempt to extend above Day's high into 1.4000 territory.
The U.S. stock markets were also resilient in the face of the Japanese collapse. Gold remains below $1400. Oil retraced 50% to $99 but is now back near lows at $97.
Nikkei back up around 9,000 on Globex. DAX was also down below 6,500 during the turmoil, but had been gaping down the last few days. It finished at 6,647.
The radiation situation remains unresolved.
There is breaking news that needs to be confirmed/clarified, regarding "workers suspending operations at nuclear plant".
EUR/USD triangle breakout to downside, need confirm below 1.3956.