A-B-C-D Trade - page 132
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After negative (missed) EU CPI, SELL entry 30 minutes after data would be about 1.3950. Reaction to data pushed pair below 1.3956, which is major 50% fib, and below diagonal support of fibo fan and newer triangle line.
Horizontal retrace fibs are 50% = 33, 61.8 = 15. Bounce off 203-degree occurring at moment.
Indices under pressure in after-hours trading. SPN225 (CFD) testing Asian low of 8805. SPX500 bounced off fib 1272 and at 1275 after chopping through 2 sessions.
OIL and CHF gaining due to Middle East escalation..
EUR/USD made 61.8 retrace and then 138.2 regular extension, about same as FE 100, and now sitting on 1.3915 the 61.8 fib and .886 fibo fan.
After breaking support of 8800, JPN225 sunk further and exactly to yesterday's European low of 8491.
SPX500 looks like it too is heading to yesterday's Euro low of 1256, right now at 1264.
Obviously, the situation in Japan with the nuclear plants are depressing the stock markets around the world. USD gains, and with repatriation, the Yen also gains. If fact, the Yen is near all-time post-war low.
This brings up possibility of BOJ intervention, and therefore jitters in Yen crosses.
Oil dragged down by strong dollar after gains due to Bahrain and Libya.
EUR/USD (see 4-hour) next support is Mar 15th low of 1.3854, and 61.8% retrace fib of 1.3850. Next fibs below are 78.6% = 1.3807 and 100% = 1.3751 (M Pattern).
US30 (CFD that mimics DOW30) broke support of yesterday's low and trading at 11,588, and now SPX500 following with price at 1,252.
This has become a panic during U.S. session.
Additionally, the bets on the ECB raising rates in April may be taken off the table. Likelihood definitely reduced. This adds fuel to downward price action of EUR/USD.
Against the surreal backdrop, we now understand that breaking news has statement to effect:
".....power line reconnected to nuclear plants..."
The part we have trouble with is:
"that will (?) solve the problem.
U.S. markets rebounding a bit, along with EUR/USD.
4-hour, with Point D being 200% extension. Intervention fears also in play (BUY direction and in line with pattern).
Pattern recognizance aside, note that it is very dangerous to go long on USD/JPY now, as witnessed by its current plunge below 78.
We strongly believe BOJ will step in soon.