A-B-C-D Trade - page 128
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USD/CHF made gains after improved CPI, released at 08:15. Double touch at top .9368, which is also 1-hour MurreyMath_1.0 (MML) 7/8th level. Pair made a FE 127 by 11:30, and at MML level 4/8th support.
EUR/USD plunged at European open 08:00, making a regular 138.2 extension off Asian High/Low.
A BAJA bearish divergence registered at the close of that 30-min candle. 15-min EFT trigger took a while and had entry at 10:00 1.3877.
Risk trades pulled pair to its FE 200 before retreat at 12:15. The other plot was 08:00 high and 08:30 low, resulting in top at the regular 161.8.
Market shrugged off positive German IP at 12:00, but may have reacted to U.S. Mortgage Applications released at same time, as well as oil's bounce off yesterday's European high.
USOIL was in consolidation through Asian, making modest FE 100 to downside. The European session bought heavily and price made a FE 127 to yesterday's Euro session high. Has since made a bounce down to the 50% retrace fib.
Resumed fear activity due to Libya resonated.
Mar 9th GOLD on the 30-min saw 2 BAJA bearish divergence signals, and is a good example for scrutiny. The fib plot (on attached chart)to start was Low = $1425.30 and High = 09:30 $1432.60.
The 1st BAJA divergence was a 2nd peak on the 12:00 GMT candle, which also was a hit to the regular 138.2 extension. This turned out to be a quick 38.2 retracement/bounce and made a loser of the BAJA (30 pips).
The2nd BAJA divergencewas on the 13:00 GMT candle, which was a hit to the regular 161.8 extension fib. Entry effected at $1434.90, with top $1437.20 + spread as stop-loss of about 30 pips.
Retracement fibs (not shown):
50% = $1431 for R/R of 1:1 and
61.8 = $1430 for R/R of 1.3:1
78.6 = $1428 for R/R of 2.2:1 (just hit)
100 = $1425 for R/R of 3.2:1
Gold saw lurking bounce traders take it back up 3 pips from bottom (session low) and 100% retracement point. Bounced to 50% fib of $1431 for about 60 gross pips.
Attached 30-min EUR/USD displays the last 3 BAJA divergence signals. White vertical dotted lines allow viewers to see alignment between candles and RSI.
Mar 7th 11:30 GMT bearish divergence
Mar 8th 14:30 GMT bullish divergence
Mar 9th 08:00 GMT bullish divergence
Once we draw the vertical lines, we can switch to the 15-min for the trigger, plotting of retracement, and assessment of R/R.
The ABC (aqua color) has 1st visit to FE 161.8 ending in Mar 8th bullish signal. The Mar 9th signal was the first revisit of that level, creating a bounce. This type of recognition allows us have further confirmation.
Our price level alarm alerts us to EUR/USD, which is testing horizontal intra-day support and diagonal trend line as seen on 4-hour chart.
Plots from few days ago still valid.
Low = Mar 3rd 09:00 1.3831
High = Mar 4th 14:00 1.4006
Fibo Fan
Low = Mar 2nd 03:00 1.3741
High = Mar 7th 1.4013
EUR/USD now testing fan's 61.8
Out at 1.3819 fill just prior FE 100. That was fast candle.
edit: added chart with FE 100 at 1.3808. HAD TP at 1.3813 but decided to manually exit as it paused too long. The spike was fast and we did not want to lose profit.
We can see trend line broke.
Spike down in EUR/USD due to German data missing projection (trade balance), and Moody's downgrade of Spain.
Be sure to double check your economic calendar, as the one we used had data release for 08:00 GMT, which was wrong!
fine tuning ,, recommend good updating economic calender website ,thanks in advcance
DailyFX.com had it wrong.
FXStreet.com had it right.
Economic Calendar