A-B-C-D Trade - page 271
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Data out of the way now, with the latest 10:00 EU CPI coming in as projected.
USD/JPY at bottom levels 76.60, with most recent significant low Nov 18th 76.56 and near round number 76.50 support.
As usual when Yen gets strong, threat of intervention is the caution. Last spike was on Oct 31st at 75.55 level.
Our 1-hour SDC plot is Dec 14th 12:00 and Jan 3rd 16:00.
Horizontal fib plot High = Dec 28th 16:00 78.028 Low = Jan 3rd 16:00 76.614
The 23.6% retrace level = 76.948
The BUY set-up is counter trend of SDC, thus mid-channel price will decline as time progresses.
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XAU_USD testing $1600 this week, with 7/8th MML on 1-hour chart acting as resistance. Immediate support at 1596, which is wide fib and near Mars 315-degree.
Chart is continuance of our 1-hour EUR/USD SDC plot, with BAJA bearish divergence on top at resistance level (SELL ZONE ). We removed the SQ9 for better viewing.
Although it is almost the same, we moved the horizontal fib plot low to 1.2971 from 1.2974, to enhance price interaction with fibs.
After the conservative exit per post, we labeled:
TP1 at mid-channel and 50% fib 1.3023/25.
TP2 at lower channel, intersected by fib plot's Low 1.2971
TP3 at 161.8 extension to downside, 1.2907 hit during 15:00 period.
We had a BAJA bullish divergence at that bottom pivot.
Pair made a revisit to that bottom area, marking 1.2909 during the 05:00 period this morning.
Lurking bounce orders/trade hit just 1.2943 during the 07:00 period ahead of the European open at 08:00 GMT.
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2nd chart is split-screen on Gold. We mentioned its attempt to break above $1600. We labeled 3 double hits to peaks.
Since this week has shown "risk on" activity, and together with concerns in the Middle East, the shorts (SELL) must be quick.
Chart on left is the 1-hour with 3 peaks, for bounce trades on 1st revisit.
There were also 2 dips during 03:00 and 13:00 periods, for bounce trade BUY. This hit was also at the 6/8th MML.
Chart on right is a 15-min, with MML and horizontal fib plot:
Low = 01:15 1609.20 and High = 05:45 1620.30
138.2 = 1624.54 (hit 08:00)
The Moon is set at 45-degree intervals. We can see price walk up the Moon 0-degree after revisiting the bottom of 76.60 on Jan 4th 08:00.
We posted that as the BUY opportunity, with previous significant low of 76.57 (tight S/L) and round number 76.50 as support levels below 76.60, for larger S/L options (position trade).
Tightening up the horizontal retrace fib plot, we used the week's High of 77.14 and the Low of 76.60.
38.2% = 76.81
50% = 76.87 (just hit)
61.8% = 76.93 (same as Mars 270-degree)
All eyes have been on the Euro as EUR/USD made a dramatic plunge during the opening hour of the European session (08:00 GMT).
The attached 1-hour chart features the PSQ9 with Moon and Mars at 45-degree intervals. Horizontal fib plo:
Low = Dec 29th 12:00 1.2857 High = Jan 3rd 17:00 1.3075
We reported the Double Top of Jan 3rd/4th in recent posts. We can see the large candle breaking the low, with only a small bounce. Pair has since gone on to make a 138.2% extension.
That fib is 1.2774, and price stopped just short of that at 1.2776. Your data feed price may differ slightly from these prices.
Last year's low of 1.2869 was tested last week, as price printed 1.2857 on Dec 29th (plot's Low).
2nd chart is Weekly with Gann_Box 144, using week of June 6th, 2010 low price of 1.1874. Height = 3600 Width = 360.
This plot will show the blue 1/3rd line (HLine3) at 1.2774, which basically is current price level and exactly the same as the 138.2 extension price.
The red 1/1 sloping up, below current price is next major support. This week price at that line is 1.2787, next week it is 1.2797, etc.
Mouse over lines to read price labels.
***
As far as intra-day at this point, some traders will trade possible profit taking near/at end of U.S. session from this bottom.
And here is the fib channel tool plot aligned to Moon 225 and 270-degree lines, pointing up.
As with our previous illustrations, we like to use the minus 31.4 level for pullbacks. This is the level of the just established pivot low of 1.2774.
Right now price is attempting to fight through the Moon 270, with current price 1.2793.
A BUY in this scenario would entail S/L option just below 1.2774, so let's call it 1.2766.
If Entry 1.2790 (can BUY on dips)
TP1 = FC 31.4 of approximately 1.2814. Mars 180 in area. R/R = 24/24 1:1
TP2 = FC 61.8 approx. 1.2850. R/R = 60/24 2.5:1
Continuance of chart depicting double peaks. We now can see 5 sets of peaks, as labeled, along with a couple of dips.
Inserted Ichumoku to show adherence twice to cloud's upper boundary.
Can "cherry pick" bounce opportunities to trade, by marrying 2nd hit to MML, SQ9, etc.
Dec 30th 19:00 2nd dip was also at 4/8th MML and Ichumoku upper cloud boundary.
Jan 4th (label#1) 2nd hit to peak 00:00 was near 7/8th MML.
Jan 4th 12:00 2nd dip was also at 6/8th MML.
Jan 5th (3) 03:00 2nd peak at Mars 0-degree.
Jan 5th 20:00 2nd peak at 8/8th MML.
On Jan 4th, we had identified the 76.60 bottom as secure enough for a SDC trade.
This chart shows the top of the move that broke out during Jan 5th early European session, and is a continuance of our last chart with tight fibs.
The top arrived at the diagonal Moon 45-degree, just above the 100% retrace fib during the 16:00 period.
A small bounce at the 100% fib of 77.14 occurred during 14:00-15:00 candle periods, declining to the 78.6 fib.
2 more subsequent hits to the Moon 45 produced small gains.
The last set-up and PSQ9 plot, with FC had profit-taking trade at or near end of the U.S. session. The resistance at the Moon 270 was resilient and trade must be concluded at small profit, break-even, or small loss.
The 05:00 hour saw dip to 1.2763 take out tight stops. Sometimes the market makers will clear the deck to gain new rounds of bets.
At 10:00 is EU data, with the high-impact U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment at 13:30. As always, we advocate going/staying on the sidelines.
Continuance of this chart shows price back up to the FE 100 level of 1624.
The Gann_SQ9 is set at 90-degree angles/intervals.
EUR/USD now very close to the 23.6 fib level of 1.2815, therefore this price of 1.2810 is satisfactory since data is at 10:00.
We also have resistance at Moon 270 and Mars 180-degree levels.