A-B-C-D Trade - page 311
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Combining two indicators named after Gann, we have a 4-hour chart of AUD/NZD.
The GannBox starting point is the high of May 18th 16:00 1.30482, with the box pointing down. 5-digit broker charts shall have a height (prices) of 3600 and width (times) of 360. For 4-digit charts, height = 360.
By the time we arrived at the first time interval at the 18 mark, we have seen enough compliance with the GannBox S&R levels/angles to pull the trigger on the first trade.
That pivot was on May 29th 20:00, with a SELL at the open of the May 30th 00:00 candle period price of 1.29064. The yellow HLine1 0 (horizontal 1/3rd line) acted as resistance.
Each arrow represents qualified GAB Pivot points that signal trade direction with the trend. The numbered arrows are the pivots that have GannBox S&R as additional confirmation.
There were 7 numbered GAB Pivot signals before price hit the bottom of the box and changed direction on June 26th. Thereafter, we can see 4 pivots against S&R, all BUYs, en route up.
Since we left off on this pair, here’s an older block of GAB Pivots from early Feb to early Apr.
We labeled qualifying pivots with white arrows, which are going in the direction of the trend and have the right GAB colors accordingly. The gray arrows are overlapping pivots which are not counted, since the trader would still be in the previous trade. The yellow arrows are unsuccessful pivot signals.
The pivot candle must be in the HAMA_T3 range. Some traders can be a little flexible with this aspect, but for the purpose of this example, we are staying with the stricter rule.
Another aspect to watch out for is whether the entry candle has pulled away too much from the S/L point, which is the pivot candle. A compromise must be used when this occurs. Alternatives for S/L can be the midpoint of the pivot candle, plus cushion, or one of the prices in the previous HAMA_T3 candles. This can be the wick price.
Generally, a reward/risk of 90/30 pips would be tolerable, in keeping with the 3:1 ratio. In this example, we have a total of 9 wins and 8 losses. Seemingly, this is not an impressive win/loss performance. However, the 3:1 R/R made this a profitable result.
Using a 2% risk per trade, the 2-month gain is 38%, and averaged 19% per month. Without compounding, the annualized gain is 228%. Allowing monthly compounding grows gain into 706%.
Based on a 3% risk, average monthly return is 29%, while the non-compounding annualized gain is 342%. Monthly compounded would be 1927%.
The average monthly win/loss obviously would not be uniform each month, therefore fluctuations will occur. With that said, the difference between 2% and 3% risk can be large when allowed to compound.
Here is a 4-hour chart of the CFD "SPY" with GAB Pivots. It tries to mimic the SPY and is about 1/10th of the displayed values of the S&P 500.
Winning and losing pivots (L), with entry at open of next bar:
Apr 5th 16:30 SELL
Apr 16th 16:30 SELL (L)
Apr 30th 20:30 BUY
May 24th 16:30 SELL (L)
June 8th 16:30 BUY
June 18th 16:30 BUY
July 6th 20:30 BUY (L)
July 12th 20:30 SELL (L)
July 17th 16:30 BUY
The yellow arrow points to a no-trade on May 31st 20:30, due to a large gap down from pivot bar. The gray candle is too close to the previous trade entry and is not counted, since that first trade would be pending.
This example had both trend an choppy periods, covering about three and a half months.
The technique did not catch the large down move From the May 1st high, nor join the move at a pullback. It did have a non-conforming pivot on May 7th 20:30, but the pivot candle was not in the HAMA_T3 zone.
The 5 wins and 4 losses, at 3% risk per trade, results in a gain of 33%. The opportunities (signals) are less than Forex since this CFD is not traded 24 hours.
Americans are not allowed to trade CFD. However, they can use this on MT4 as guidance, while trading the SPY ETF on the NYSE. You can go to yahoo finance and type in SPY in the symbol box to see the chart. Here's a link to wiki that explains some of these funds:
Exchange-traded fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
or cut and paste: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_%26_Poor%27s_Depositary_Receipts
The last post showcasing SPY omitted the R/R of 3:1.
1) The 1st attached chart is AUD/USD 4-hour GAB Pivots, with conforming and non-conforming pivots, covering the period from June 20th to present, about one month.
The result was 8 wins and 4 losses on a 3:1 R/R. We'll say that the trades were 90/30 pips. Using 3% risk per trade = 60% return.
Below are pivots, with entry at the opening price of the next bar period.
6-20 16:00 SELL (W)
6-17 00:00 BUY (L)
6-28 16:00 BUY (W) non-conforming
7-1 20:00 SELL (L) non-conforming
7-4 08:00 BUY (L)
7-6 08:00 SELL (W)
7-9 08:00 BUY (W) non-conforming
7-11 16:00 SELL (W) non-conforming
7-12 12:00 BUY (W) non-conforming
7-16 04:00 BUY (W)
7-18 00:00 SELL (L) non-conforming
7-19 12:00 SELL (W) non-conforming
Trading just the conforming pivots resulted in 3 wins and 2 losses, and a 21% return.
2) The 2nd chart is 4-hour AUD/NZD. We circled a cluster of GABs from March 14th 04:00 GMT 2012 to March 15th 00:00.
The first 3 bars were blue bull bars, with successive highs.
The 4th and 5th bars retraced.
The 6th bar revisited the high of the 3rd bar (can allow 5 pips off).
The 6th bars had high rising above 5th bar's high, and RSI(4) declining, and thus divergence as displayed in our current GAB Pivot examples.
We'll call this formation a 3-2-1 GAB Pivot Reversal Pattern.
We'll also see formation with combinations of 2-1-2, 2-2-1, and 3-1-1.
EUR/USD (not shown) had a 2-1-1 SELL on
July 16th 20:00/00:00/July 17th 04:00/08:00
USD/CAD (not shown)
2-1-1 SELL June 22nd 00:00/04:00/08:00/ 12:00
3-1-1 SELL July 11th 00:00/04:00/08:00/12:00/16:00
2-1-1 SELL July 17th 12:00/16:00/20:00/July 18th 00:00 (Loss)
3-1-1 BUY July 19th 20:00/July 20th 00:00/04:00/08:00/12:00 (Loss)
USD/JPY (not shown)
2-1-1 SELL July 17th 08:00.12:00/16:00/20:00
1) The first chart is a 15-min EUR/USD with session colors, MML, and HAMA_T3.
Yesterday night, after a revisit of the U.S. session high of 1.21436, price was rejected at 19:45 at 1.21410. If a short here was taken, it would necessitate waiting through the slow period.
Price channeled through Asian, and broke out to the downside early European, aided by negative data. If on sideline until data release passed, SELL entry effected 09:00 when candle met HAMA resistance 1.21120.
Most conservative exit at 0/8th MML 1.20850 reached during 10:30 period. The HAMA held the next bounce up, until a large pullback to the upside during 12:30. This was a 61.8% retrace, based on plot using the then European high/low of 1.21310/1.20762.
Price subsequently made a 161.8% extension to the downside (1.20423) during 16:15, after respecting the 138.2 (1.20553) at 16:00.
2) The second chart is a 1-hour AUD/USD with SQ9(Price) using the July 27, 2011 high of 1.10792. Compliance was good, including yesterday when price hit support at the 720-degree level of 1.2531.
Price made two attempts to push up and past the 675-degree today. The second attempt was a gravestone doji, a reversal sign. If entry effect at the open of the next candle period at 14:00, the first two exit options were:
720-degree 1.02531 (hit ( 15:00)
743-degree 1.02278 (hit 16:00)
When we look back, we can see previous respect of the 675-degree. The alternate entry method was to enter right at that level and place stop-loss between the 675 and 653-degree.
This can be done using fib levels such as 50%, 61.8%, etc., or simply taking half or 3/4th of the distance. In this example S/L had to be a few pips above the 50% level between those 2 SQ9 levels. You can use the fib channel tool found on the MT4 to measure.
Feb 24th high 1.34853
Prices (height) = 14400 (5-digit chart/broker)
Times (width) = 360
The bottom of the box 1.20453 was hit almost precisely yesterday July 24th. The attached pic was taken 03:00 today, when price was struggling to hurdle resistance at 1.20750.
Price popped up upon European open and now at 1.20960.
Prior to hitting bottom, the HAMA_T3 contained a pullback during July 17th-20th.
A BUY swing trade's take-profit options include trading to the HAMA_T3 candle low of 1.22060, minus cushion. Otherwise, drop down to 4-hour or 1-hour charts for more conservative exit levels.
Just deposited in Gann Is The Man thread, an update on the AstroIndictor4 (A4) using Jupiter and Moon for EUR/USD Daily.
We have the 15-min, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily (GannBox)
The 15-min had fib plot based on the July 24th European session high/low. Price declined to the 161.8 extension to the downside during July 24th U.S. Session. Today, July 25th, price ascended to the 161.8% extension.
The 1-hour uses GAB and HAMA_T3. We also drew a red horizontal line for S&R at 1.2143, based on recent price action and respect of that level.
As price broke upwards, it retraced but was contained by the supported provided by the HAMA_T3 at 14:00 and 15:00 periods. This is also an opportunity to join the move-in-progress.
The 4-hour chart also utilized GAB and HAMA_T3. The bottom July 24th 16:00 pivot had divergence and was a GAB Pivot counter-trend.
The Daily is the previously posted GannBox_144.
In what amounted to verbal intervention, ECB Chief Mario Draghi announced strong support for the Euro and Spain. This drove the Euro up, and in the case of EUR/USD to a high of 1.23283 by the 14:00 period.
The first attached chart is a 1-hour EUR/USD with Gann_SQ9. We need to make some adjustments to its input parameters. Increase levels (kov_lev) to 16 to accommodate this move from the bottom of 1.20411.
Next, increase ExtDepth to 20. This allows indicator to take the swing from that 1.20411 bottom, as one swing going up. Otherwise it will count from different and shorter swings.
We also used the SQ9(Price indicator with significant low of 1.18760 as the StartPrice, direction up.
Today's peak hit the Gann_SQ9 225-degree level 1.23170, and is basically the same as the SQ9(Price) 360-degree level of 1.23159. When we zoom out, we can see that this level was respected numerous times as S&R.
***
The 2nd chart is an update on the GannBox_144 plot, which also had the HAMA_T3. We targeted TP at the bottom of the HAMA candles 1.22060 minus cushion.
The reward/risk was good, with S/L just below the box, for approximately 40 pips risk. The gain was 120 pips, which made R/R 3:1. If trader kept a finger on the pulse of news, position may have been held for a longer period of time.
***
As mentioned, traders that missed entry near the bottom of the GannBox could have joined the move-in-progress at the pullback using the 1-hour HAMA_T3. A GAB Pivot occurred at the end of the 15:00 period. Next candle's open price was 1.21300.
Continuing with EUR/USD GannSQ9 and SQ9(Price). Attached are 1-hour and 30-min views. Remember that the SQ9 levels are the same as the 1-hour GannSQ9 levels except they are numbered differently.
Price popped up again with more Euro supporting comments by the ECB. The 13:00 period broke previous resistance and hit the SQ9 405-degree (1.23715), same as the GannSQ9 270-degree level.
Now, when we switch to the 30-min we see the measurement of the big swing up from th July 24th low of 1.2041 disappear. However, we have the SQ9 levels as guidance, since they are in the same area.
The chart shows the bounce opportunity with lurking BUY scalps at the SQ9 360-degree level of 1.23159. It must be quick as the down move is strong.
The chart shows a bounce to 1.23355 and is good enough for take-profit. S/L was tight, and can be as low as 10 pips. This was a R/R of net 17/10.