A-B-C-D Trade - page 264
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Meant to say BAJA Divergence on 30-min.
This is quick shave, as data ahead at 09:30.
Split-screen with 3 charts.
Left = 15-min session colors, with retrace fibs using Asian Low/High. TP at 38.25 FIB.
Center = same 30-min chart with BAJA Bearish Divergence
Right = SDC plot on 1-hour with PSQ9. SDC = Dec 9th 11:00 and Dec 13th 00:00. We have resistance at the SDC's upper channel. Immediate support is Mars 135, which pair is testing now.
Moon 180 and 2/8th MML (same as 61.8) now next support.
GBP/USD chopped through data before turning back to the downside, along with EUR/USD. U.S. FOMC rate decision and verbiage at 19:30 GMT.
GBP/USD made a 200% extension to the downside, based on plot using Asian Low/High. Following Euro weakness.
Key pivot low 1.55646 which is also the 2/8th MML, broken during the 15:30 period.
Attached is the 1-hour PSQ9 with the same SDC plot. Arrow was entry point per last posts. Fib channel aligned to Moon 225 and Moon 180-degree, to provide expansion levels pointing down.
We can see price touch the FC 100 and the SDC mid-channel during the 15:00 candle period, and currently trading below the FC 131.4.
We replaced the Ehler's Fisher Transform histogram version with the cross-over version for you to see the intra-day trend.
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The 2nd chart is the same 30-min with Gann_SQ9. The swing down from 07:00 now at the 90-degree level, after pivot at 45-degree.
Here's a continuance of our plot on EUR/USD 30-min with Andrew's Pitchfork.
As price declined, we moved the fib channel's (FC) top plot line to align with the APF's lower channel.
Confirmation of FC plot can be seen in price trading between the FC 100 and FC 131.4 channel.
After FOMC, currently testing FC 261.8 support and below 2/8th MML.
Attached is continuance of EUR/USD with Ichimoku showing down trend on a swing trading basis.
Use of indicator Heiken Ashi MA T3 new_alerts as resistance through pullback.
Labeled 07:00 entry previously detailed with BAJA bearish divergence.
Horizontal fibs High = 1.33562 and Low = 1.31610.
12:00 pullback to 38.2
15:00 spike to 138.2
After FOMC was move to 161.8
Pair broke key Oct 4th support of 1.3144.
Price trading below 203-degree on SQ9 plot using 1.42464 start price, and below FE 127.2.
Chart 1 is continuance of 4-hour SDC plot using Nov 1st 12:00 and Nov 16th 00:00. The fib channel (FC) tool was aligned to the SDC's upper and mid-channel line (pink).
As pointed out recently, price had been channeling between the SDC upper and mid-channel. This ended on Dec 12th 12:00 period. Pair pivot and the mid-channel became resistance during the Dec 13th 08:00 candle period.
The expansion to the downside hit the FC 131.4 during Dec 13th 20:00, and bounced. The yellow horizontal trend line is key pivot 1.3144 that was broken.
Chart 2 is continuance of Gann_SQ9 indicator application. We switch to the 4-hour interval to catch the bigger swing plot.
The Dec 13th 20:00 bottom is at the significant 360-degree level. Therefore a natural bounce or reversal can be expected.
An ABC plot would have that bottom as its FE 100, although the 2nd pullback might be thought to have invalidated plot.
As price came out of Asian, the early activity was long EUR/USD to the 127.2. However, the 10:00 EU Industrial Production data figures were negative, sending pair to the downside.
After breaking the Asian low of 1.3014, price made a 200% extension, and seeking more. The chart on the left gives the 15-min session colors with fibs view.
Chart on the right is a continuance of the MML and FC last reported. We had pointed out the consolidation into a channel between FC levels. The same occurred previous to this move, this time between the FC 261.8 and FC 300.
The 2/8th and 1/8th MML also bracketed from a horizontal basis. Next support at 0/8th.
Slew of economic data this morning, with 10:00 European CPI ahead.
EUR/USD made 138.2 extension to the downside based on plot using Asian Low/European High.
As a continuance of our APF plot and FC alignments, try to draw a trend line at last level of plot, and pull down with FC. You should see channel of FC 200 and FC 261.8 contain price.
Chart is attached, with orange colored trend line, and new FC alignment to it.
XAU_USD (Gold CFD) had SDC plot on 1-hour using Dec 9th 11:00 and Dec 13th 14:00. Price just bounced off the mid-channel during the 08:00 period.
EUR/CHF gapped down on data and interest rate decision (held rate), in backdrop that Swiss National Bank (their central bank) wants to raise peg to Euro to 1.25.
The 30-min MML chart has -1/8th as support thus far.
Active bond sales day in Euro region.
We are witnessing an unprecedented period in global economics. The Eurozone has been under constant pressure for the past 2 years, amid a myriad of attempted stop-gap solutions.
The U.S. with the sub-prime and housing crisis and unsustainable debt, with politicians unable to ratify the budget.
Bloomberg interview with Mr. Pratt, who co-founded BlueCrest Capital, a $300 Billion hedge fund:
"Most European banks are insolvent"
"Large portion invested in U.S. Treasuries and German Bund" (2-year)
Does not want to hold illiquid assets.
European demands of austerity for troubled members only compounds growth problems.
Italy situation can blow up.
Current situation in Europe is unstable and makes it worst than 2008.
Thank you to Mr. Michael Pratt for his insights. We strongly believed that the measures imposed on the PIIGS nations would only stunt growth, and mount more debt.
He also agrees with our position that the ECB must be part of the solution, as the other funds simply do not have enough money. However, it is against their charter to bail out the situation.
Germany does not want Euro bonds, which is how nations fund spending.
The Euro structure not allowing a member to devalue their currency creates an unworkable fiscal union, since members can become non-compliant.
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Here's a bloomberg article entitled "Traders Confounded as Volatility Extends Runs"
Traders Confounded as Volatility Extends Run - Bloomberg