A-B-C-D Trade - page 125
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The following are March EUR/USD 30-min BAJA signals, and max gain from entry. You can input all details into log.
Mar 1st - 00:30 Bearish Divergence candle +40
Mar 1st - 10:30 Bearish Divergence candle +64
Mar 1st - 07:00 Bullish Divergence candle +27 (large S/L)
Mar 2nd - 02:30 Bullish Divergence candle +27 (pending)
*****
The attached 1-hour EUR/USD chart shows double top hit by EUR/USD Feb 28th and Mar 1st. The BAJA caught the 10:30 divergence at entry price of 1.3842. That's just 11 pips from the top.
We also used the MurreyMath_1.0 indicator. We can see the 7/8 line is right there at the top 1.3855.
We applied the HAS and 24-EMA to give swings more emphasis during viewing.
Another point of interest is the EFT level during the entry period. It is dramatically lower than the 1st peak period. Yellow "X" marks that small hump.
Another 4-hour chart (not shown) using top of 1.4281 as start price for SQ9 (Price) indicator has 90-degree level at 1.3751. A fibo fan plot with that as high and Jan 7th low of 1.2863 is also helpful.
****
Friday is Non-Farm Payrolls along with U.S. Unemployment, preceded by ECB on Thurs. The "experts" blamed the poor weather for missing the last NFP projection, and expect big gains this time.
Thus, bets are on that side, which can translate to USD strength off of that release Friday, if it meets or exceeds expectations.
Although the U.S. economic growth requires other sector gains, the market will knee-jerk these major data releases - which is good for intra-day traders waiting for bounces, etc.
Along with 15:00 data yesterday, FED Chief Ben Bernanke shrugged off the spike in oil and assured that it is temporary and won't affect the U.S. economic rebound.
Unfortunately, for Americans, GDP growth projections are probably too optimistic. This is due to budgetary cutbacks, including those made by state governments.
That's the 2nd "Oops" by analysts. Bad weather for the last NFP, and the recently missed GDP figures.
Investors will have jitters with oil at $100 level, and more will diversify into gold.
Last BAJA signal for BUY with entry price 1.3755 + spread, had move just bounce off the 50% retrace fib of 1.3796 for +41 gross pips. Plot uses high = 1.3850.
EUR/USD neared 86.6% retrace fib of 1.3838 for about +80 gross pips from entry. All bull candles on 15-min and greater during this thrust.
Here is 30-min EUR/USD Bullish Butterfly.
This is revised pattern by ZUP, having triggered earlier at Point D price of about 1.3765. This one used 1.3741.
EUR/USD topped out at 1.3889, just about at the 138.2. This would be logged as a max gain (if it is finished) of 134 pips from BAJA BUY entry price 1.3755.
If a trader got off at the 61.8 level of 1.3808 (hit 10:00), nothing to be ashamed of. That would be a 50-pip net gain, and 37% of max gain.
Fib plot: Low = 07:00 1.3744. High = 1.3840 (this was near 86.6% fib from master plot per previous post and hit 11:00).
The pullback was 38.2% to 1.3803 (hit 13:00).
Regular 138.2 = 1.3874 (hit 15:00).
Data at 13:15 U.S. ADP Employment, Bernanke Continued Testimony 15:00, and U.S. Beige Book 19:00.
Before we get into EUR/USD, let's examine the AUD/USD. Attached is a 30-min chart.
Trend line pointing down: highs of Mar 1st 00:30 1.0201 and Mar 1st 10:00 1.0196.
Trend line pointing up: Feb 28th 11:00 low 1.0134 and Mar 1st low 1.0148
The 2 TL form a triangle, which we saw broken to the downside Mar 1st 18:00.
A fib plot from Mar 1st high 1.0201 to Mar 1st 22:00 low resulted in 138.2 of 1.0090. The area is also the MML 1/8th level.
A BAJA BUY signal developed at the bottom, with entry price of 1.0098, just 15 pips from bottom.
The aqua colored line is a 32-EMA, which acted as resistance prior to the extension down. That price level of 1.0150 became the "armpit" for the shoulders of a H&S.
The white check marks represent fib plot that produced the 138.2 at top, where the trend line pointing down also acted as resistance.
The bounce trade opportunity to shave a few pips occurred at revisit of trend line, which is also near the 7/8th MML. Bounce made target back down to 1.0150 support for about +20 gross pips.
Period after that was data/ECB.
The positive USD data was overshadowed by hawkish comments from the ECB's Trichet, as rate was left unchanged. That was telegraphed prior to the 12:45 rate and verbiage release.
The ECB had been talking up the EURO during the past week. Might be in anticipation of USD strength after scheduled data. It is also clear that the ECB is paranoid about speculation against the EURO.
Not much to show chart-wise, as pair was in tight range ahead of EU GDP and ECB. The large ABC from yesterday's Euro session still valid. Post-Trichet, spike retreated modestly to the FE 127 of 1.3925.
***
The 1st attached 4-hour illustrates a Bearish Butterfly on Mar 2nd, with the 12:00 candle as Point D. If we look at the red box, the aqua horizontal line is the 161.8 extension of swing A-B.
The pattern's Point D expanded upwards as the pair made a new thrust up after the ECB - per 2nd attached chart. If we look closely, and have the right color background on chart, we can see the fib ratio on the right wing for the extension of C-B = 2.36%.
This is the primary tricky part of these patterns. Point D can continue to move. The next C-B extension level is the fib ratio of 2.618, at price of about 1.4026. This is the 3rd different level for Point D thus far. The posts in the other threads have the distances between swings/pics for the "perfect" patterns.
Get used to measuring the 2 extension plots that the ZUP triggers off of; A-B (aqua) and C-B (yellow). And read ratio on right wing.
The EUR/USD Daily chart has master plot with High = Nov 14th 1.4281 and Low = Nov 30th 1.2968. The 78.6 = 1.4000. The high is also used as the start price on the SQ9(Price) indicator, which has its 45-degree at 1.4015..
Fibo fan (blue) uses that same high, and low of Jan 9th 1.2863. The 88.6 fan line is acting as resistance right now around 1.3980.
Trend line with peaks/highs of Dec 3rd, 2009 and same high Nov 14th 1.4281. That TL now acting as resistance (pink), and is same as the 88.6 fibo fan line.
ABC (yellow) swings of Jan 9th/ Feb 2nd/Feb 14th produced FE levels beyond current resistance.
*****
Gold 4-Hour chart (GMT +2)shows BAJA divergence as marked by “X” on 2nd peak of RSI(4) and arrow at price 2nd peak
Fib channel has defined lowest channel line at last dip Mar 3rd, acting as support for now.
MurreyMath_1.0 indicator has 8/8th at top where BAJA triggered.
When we look at the 30-min or 1-hour, we can see a Head & Shoulder pattern. The head of course at top of last move up, and subsequent retrace from there caught by BAJA.
The 1-hour with Gann_SQ9 indicator displays support with its 720-degree level $1410.90 at 20:00 GMT candle.
One more Daily fib plot for EUR/USD. This one has Feb 7th low to Feb 9th high, resulting in regular 200% extension price of 1.3979.
U.S. NFP (+192K) and Unemployment (8.9%) came out positive according to most. The NFP projection was +190K to +196K, depending on which projection traders read.
EUR/USD jumped up to 1.4000 level, and now trading below 1.3970. Yesterday's European Low/High plot = regular 161.8 = 1.3980. Therefore, pair has returned to touch price level prior to NFP.
Recent Euro strength is due to market assuming EU rate hike(s). Link to this analysis and Trichet comments:
Trichet Says Interest Rate Hike Possible In April
EUR/USD 4-Hour Bearish Butterfly reverted to Feb 25th pattern, with Point D = 1.3837.
USD/JPY speculated up prior to NFP, but now has returned to previous Asian level.
***
A 30-min chart of USD/CHF shows a 61.8% retrace after post-NFP thrust to .9222 placed it near all-time low established yesterday of .9201.
The time of the bounce from bottom coincided with the 15:00 data release of U.S. Factory Orders, which came out positive.