The London Open - page 135
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New York Open - Tuesday 17th February
Good afternoon all and welcome to the new guys/girls.
This afternoon is going to be geared around the TIC numbers coming out at 2PM, expected at plus 20 billion opposed to last month’s minus 21.7 billion.
Usually very difficult to gauge since numbers are so off the mark but the market will be waiting for this so not expecting any fireworks until then.
GBPUSD-
• Boxed between 60m 20&50
• Need to see break of 14300 to move up or 14200 to move down.
• Triple bottom on 60m looks tough nut to crack with averages so far away.
EURUSD-
• Can’t go long until 60m 20ema is broken, can’t short above 12600.
• USDCHF looks better to upside so favouring EURUSD down opposed to up but not great set-up.
USDJPY-
• Will find support if breaking 92.10
• Not interested in short into all averages.
USDCHF-
• Looks very appealing to upside.
• Possible double top on 60m but highs are 60 pips away.
• EURUSD looking like has no intentions of doing anything other than sideways to down.
GBPJPY-
• A break of WP could see this higher but 4hr & daily 50sma’s just above so be careful.
GBPCHF-
• Also looking pretty bid with decent UK numbers out this morning.
• Headed for WP by the looks of things.
EURJPY-
• Bounced off support on 60m
• Needs to retrace to 60m 20ema before looking for further shorts.
EURCHF-
• Would be interested in shorting at 60m 20ema again.
• Waiting for DT at 14825 region
Verdict-
All depending on news I like the potential of USDJPY if it breaks up through 92.15.
Nothing else setting the world alight due to big moves hence sketchy notes.
USDCHF would be a good alternative, both LONG
Have a good afternoon.
A City Trader...
Oh dear, what a day! Well I will start with Kazakh banks, the good newsis that we are approaching zero so the pace of the sell off must slowsoon. The bad news is that there is a lot of pain out there right nowand as prices head towards zero more and more stop losses or margincalls are triggered making the situation much worse than it should be.Bottom line is that this will get worse before it gets better and evenwhen the news improves the rally will be slow and painful as thetechnical's are awful and the investor base is shrinking fast. Russiancorporates are still seriously random, I saw a couple of scary size bidlists today that will not easily be absorbed by the street however thereare still pockets of buying out there by locals who are gagging toreinvest their dollars as they are still short Roubles plus for now thehand still has a little ammo left. Valuations are all over the placeand reflects the awful liquidity and lack of street positioning. Here'san example why we shouldn't look at ratings. Ireland that's theRepublic or Ireland the Emerald isle is rated AAA (that's the best riskyou can have for the aliens reading this) trades at 400 over. Turkeythat is the country that's part in Europe partly Asia is rated BB-(that's well to use an old fixed income term "Junk") trades at 500 over,makes perfect sense to me but maybe not to the rating agencies. Thereare plenty of other examples like that out there, that is obviouslyreflected by the lack of liquidity and lack of hedge funds around toexploit anomalies in the market. The big wide world is a mess, the Telegraph article over the weekendabout Western Europe's exposure to Eastern Europe has really put theskids up people, nothing new in my book but apparently it was forothers. I have said it before and I will say it again the Euro is onebig disaster waiting to happen, if you think you can have one currencyand one interest rate for all these different countries through arecession/depression and will be ok then you are smoking somethingillegal. One final word on the stock market which is very worrying.When we hit the November lows last year it was on the back of thecollapse of Lehman's and potential systemic failure of the whole bankingsystem. We are cr*pping out at the moment for what reason? If mydaughter has gone to bed (if not I'll be watching Postman Pat or MickeyMouse!) I will be glued to channel 505 (CNBC) between 8pm and 9pm,tonight's close is very important, if the PPT don't do their stufftomorrow and the rest of the week could get very ugly.
Mr P.....
Its really very nice of you Dan007 for your information . i am really obliged.
Glad u like...
D
Hey R,The rugby on Saturday was immense. For those of us actually in the Millenium Stadium that is!! I was sat behind the posts with my lad and it was just a great day out. You need to learn the Welsh one....."Mae hen wlad fy nhadau yn annwyl i mi............."That puts a shiver down the spine. Now remind me what was the score Wales 23 - England 15.
Hi Rock
Glad u enjoyed the game...A close one at that.
To be honest never thought we could win it but very proud of our efforts. We are in that developing stage now and 2 1/2 years to go till a world cup should be long enough to blend a team...
Well done to Wales and very well deserved.
Apologies for not replying to you earlier. Have been snowed under..Planning to call you later in the week.
Cheers
D
Hello London Open Thread How sad and lonely you appear to be. I still love you, I still want you, I still read you every day. In fact, condensed Dan, (all to myself!). Lovely. Thanks Dan, you are still very much appreciated (and I can read you like a book, ha ha). RS PS The rugby was rubbish! I'm going to defect to NZ, all those lovely rugby boys who know how to play rugby, phwoar!!!! The only bit I enjoyed were the anthems for Italy - Italia, Italia... and Les Bleu - the Marse wotsit, always good for a sing-a-long.
Thanks for the love RS..Much appreciated.
Dont go to the dark side. Yes they are good at rugby but what else can u do down under other than talk to the sheep!!! Maybe i shouldnt have said that...(hahahaha) Amazing country though...
I tell u what the scariest thing i have faced was the Haka at School boy level. I was opposite the captain who was 6ft 8 and he still gives me nightmares. He was so big i could run between his legs!!!
Ahh i love rugby memories...The best sport out there by a mile... Rockdrive i will take you to Twickenham one day soon mate and beers on me. If we win you will have to wear an England shirt to the curry house!!!
See ya tom.
D
London Open - Wednesday 18th February
Good morning pip hunters
Watch out for 9.30am minutes in the UK.
CABLE
Sideways movement and triangle forming on 15min chart.
Any break back above the 4hr 20ma (1.4300 level) would signal a break.
DP support now at 1.4220 would signal a break down in GBP.
Watch GBPJPY closely for GBP trend this am.
GBPJPY
Been a difficult 48 hours for this currency.
Still feel USDJPY will make a move higher so GBPJPY will be dragged higher with JPY weakness.
Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage here with any stop below.
The 4hr 50ma and Daily 50ma is just ahead around the 132.10 level. A break above here is clear air…
Watch USDJPY for assistance with JPY direction.
GBPCHF
Price is below the DP around the 1.6670 level. Any break above would see strength back into GBP this am.
Keep an eye on USDCHF as this is below the 60min 20ma and could see weakness in the USD here which should drag GBPCHF lower. Any break back above the 60min 20ma at 1.1710 would help GBPCHF higher and break its respective level.
EURGBP
Still short and allowing the 4hr 20ma to catch up.
Would like to see the 4hr 20ma cross the 4hr 50ma for a further push lower.
I still see further weakness in the EUR but understand this morning that the EURUSD needs to retrace after big falls 24 to 48 hours ago.
0.8800 is the level to break on the 60min chart and then 0.8700 should be met.
EURUSD
Breaking 60min 20ma as we speak.
The EUR was oversold yesterday and is now pulling back. Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage. WS1 and DP needs to be broken to close the gap to the 60min 50ma.
If you don’t like retracements be patient and wait for next break back down through the 60min 20ma. This is what I will be doing as I still like EUR lower
Watch EURJPY for EUR direction.
EURJPY
Breaking 60min 20ma and DP as we speak.
Look for 123 with support off the 60min 20ma.
Problem lies with 60min 50ma so close above at 116.75. A break here would signal a push higher.
Keep an eye on EURUSD and USDJPY for direction.
USDJPY
Potential triple top forming at 92.75 or resistance level before powering on!!!
The trend is up and the USD is gaining momentum
Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage and buy off it with stop below.
If the triple top holds and USDJPY breaks down then look for break of the $92.00 level.
Have a great morning
Dan
USD & Gold - Wednesday 18th February
Morning all,
USDCAD
• Break of WR1 will signal move back towards 1.2550, this level is a major technical support so if you trade look to take 50% of your position off at this level and bring stop down.
• 38% Retracement of the swing up would bring us back to the 4 hourly 20 ma look for support on this level.
AUDUSD
• Broken back through the 60 Minute 20 MA and retracing back towards 4 hourly 20 MA
• Look for the downward sloping resistance level on the 1 hourly and 15 minute chart that tie in with the hourly 50 MA
• 0.6430 will act as a intermidiate support level before the 4 hourly 20 MA is tested.
GOLD
• 1 Hour 21 CCI is creating higher lows suggesting that the buying pressure is slowly weakening.
• A break of 975 would signal a further rally towards the 985 (previous high)
• A double top is forming on the 1 hour chart hitting 974.00
• Wait for a pull back to the hourly 20 MA if this is breached then look for a break of WR1 to the down side. 15 Minute charts will give us entries to Gold
Longer term I have banked 25% of my position.
James
Hi Dan007
Can we talk whenever i have some problem regarding trading?
London Open - Thursday 19th February
Good morning all
CABLE
Trying to push above the 4hr 20ma again this am.
1.4280 is immediate resistance.
1.4300 was yesterdays resistance
Any break back below the 60min 50ma and DP at 1.4220 areas would signal weakness in GBP.
Lets be careful at 8.00am again as yesterday kicked off at this time.
My view remains the same. With USDJPY powering up, GBPJPY will remain supported with too many traders long of JPY. This will hold GBPUSD up for the time being.
GBPJPY
133.90 is old resistance. A break above 134.00 would see a move to the WR1 level at 136.00
Look for GBP strength across the board for a break above 133.90.
If USDJPY breaks down below the DP then watch any weakness in GBPJPY but at the moment I like GBP strength as long as CABLE can break this resistance.
GBPCHF
Boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 50ma.
Looks supported on the 15min chart with 60min 20ma just below.
Watch USDCHF here as if this breaks back above the 60min 20ma some weakness will come to the CHF and GBPCHF would strengthen.
EURGBP
Looks weak again after yesterdays 8.00am fiasco on the 60min chart.
You know my thoughts that I like this lower.
0.8800 seems to be well supported now
Watch CABLE and EURUSD for their respective breaks for direction in EURGBP this am as we need EUR weakness for this to fall further.
EURUSD
15min chart suggests a box play and we wait for break.
1.2600 is resistance and support below the DP around 1.2560 would see EUR weakness.
With the 60min 20ma just below I am looking for this to gather momentum. Lets see if it can hold. Wait for break
EURJPY
60min triangle
Look for support off the WP and DP at 117.20 level.
A break back above the 118.00 would signal a move higher with a break of previous high.
Look for EURUSD to break to help with EUR direction and USDJPY for JPY direction.
USDJPY
This is a tricky one this morning.
You know I like this higher but small chance of a pullback.
Look for DP at 93.20 to hold support. Any break here would signal GBPJPY and EURJPY to weaken a little.
MR1 is main resistance now and will be attacked at some point this week.
Look for a small break back above the WR2 around 93.65 for strength in the USD today.
USDCHF
Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
Look for break.
The 60min 20ma needs to break for signs of CHF weakness. Look for a break above the 1.1755 level.
Dan
GOLD AUDUSD USDCAD - Thursday 19th February
Morning All,
Well done to those who traded the USDJPY and EURUSD last night great trades.
Gold
• We must be aware that buying seems to be happening during the Asian session ATM
• Break out of the 975.00 level happen at the beginning of the Asian session hope you had orders.
• New level today would be above the 980/982 levels. Limit around the 990 Level
• Risk is with stop below 60 Min 20 MA
AUDUSD
• Support has been found on the WS1 level and we have re – approached the 4H 20MA.
• If a break to the Up through the 4H 20 MA and 0.6430 we have a gap to the previous high of 0.6525 and then the 4H 50 MA
• To the downside if we break the 1H 20MA and 0.6390 we are likely to see this move back to the WS1 level at 0.6350.
USDCAD
• Has had a great play back into the 4H 20MA as per yesterdays notes.
• To the Upside if we find support off this level I will be looking for the break of 1.2600
• If we see a break down through the 4H 20 MA I will drop to the 15 min chart to find a 123 play with a potential run towards the 4H 5
James