The London Open - page 140
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London Open - Monday 2nd of March
Good morning team London
I trust you are all well and had a good weekend
CABLE
A lot of support below at 1.4100/50 level…(How many times can it test this level
2 possibilities. 1) Its building up to smash the 1.4100 support for a big push lower or 2) 1.4100 will hold and the market gets tired of testing this support and we rally to 1.5000 and higher.
4hr MA´s are still heading south so heavy resistance at WP at 1.4300.
Very hard to read direction.
For any short plays keep a very tight stop above 60min 20ma, likewise any long plays look for break back above the 60min 20ma and a tight stop below.
Watch GBPJPY for direction this am.
EURUSD
Our call on EUR weakness from 1.2700 has been spot on and we now need to break below the 1.2500 level for confirmation of further EUR weakness.
Look for further EUR weakness but wait for retracement before looking for further EUR weakness.
Use the 60min 20ma and DP as resistance on 15min chart and watch EURJPY for EUR direction.
EURGBP
A 4 hr triangle has formed.
The direction of GBP is hard to read as GBPUSD is closely boxed in.
Feeling is that EURUSD will continue its downtrend and if CABLE can hold the 1.4100 level then EURGBP will weaken (gladly).
4hr 50ma at 0.8860 level, if this holds and trigger starts to move south then an opportunity will arise here.
15min chart is showing tight channel, a break below the 0.8825 level would signal further weakness.
You could look for a short play with a tight stop above the 0.8865 level.
Look for EURUSD and CABLE to help with direction.
Verdict
I feel unsure of direction this am.
Patience needed
Dan
GOLD , AUDUSD & USDCAD - Monday 2nd March
GOLD:
• After a solid retracement on the daily chart back to 930 and global indices plummeting we may see increased buying coming back into the market.
• Daily 21 CCI is on the 00 level and is looking for a bounce.
• Hourly Chart shows us boxed between the 4hourly and hourly MA’s a break of the weekly pivot (958) would signal a move higher, targeting the previous high of 977
• To the downside we are seeing a lot of support off the daily 20MA so we would need to see a clear break and then a 123 before playing down to the daily 50 MA.
AUDUSD
• Looks difficult to trade after a great 123 on the hourly chart on Friday.
• I will be looking for pullbacks into the hourly 20 MA before playing this back down again.
USDCAD
• Again USDCAD has had a great move up last week and now really needs a pullback on the hourly towards the 20MA
• On the 15 minute we do have an downward sloping resistance level obviously look for resistance of this but if this gets broken at around the 75 level look for it to retest the 1.2800 a break of this and we will see this moving higher still this week.
• I will be looking for a pull back into the 60 Min 20MA around the 1.27 level before playing the CAD.
James
JPY Notes - Monday 2nd March
Good morning all.
I hope you’re all well and relaxed after the weekend break.
USDJPY
• Still above the 4hr 20ema and technically still long unless it breaks down through 97.00
• On the upside we need to see a break of 98.00 as 60m m.a’s have crossed indicating possible bearishness
• Not really looking for a positions here
GBPJPY
• I’m a bit undecided here at the moment
• Wedged in between 4hr 20&50 needs some clearer direction before I’m getting excited
• A break of WP at 13800 could see it push lower yet a push above 60m 50sma at 13950 could see it pushing higher
• Again, not looking for anything here unless I have confirmation from both USDJPY and GBPUSD
EURJPY
• Looks to have found some support of WP so needs to break 12200 now to see it lower
• Can’t touch it on the upside unless it breaks 60m 20ema at 12400
Verdict…….
EURJPY does look the best of these IF it breaks down but need EURUSD to push lower too.
Zak
A tough morning in the room but a few pips made in GOLD, EURGBP and EURUSD...
Barry M was student of the day with 130 pips. Some decided not to trade and others crept in with a solid 30-60pips...
78 pips for me so happy to get off to a good start. Not as much as Barry but happy overall in these conditions.
See u later.
Dan
Hi all
I am done for the day...Been good with CABLE pushing lower after GBPJPY broke its triangle.
So 4 trades today and happy with that.
See u all tom.
D
New York Notes - Monday 2nd March
Afternoon all
Its been a good day with GBP weakness across the board.
CABLE
• Broken the 1.4150 & 1.4100 support level.
• The price needs to pullback and remember to trade as close to the 60min 20ma as possible.
• The trend is down so look for short plays so no entry available at the moment.
EURUSD
• Been trading sideways all day and 1.2500 is holding as support.
• Last two highs have been 1.2622 and look for opportunities off this resistance level.
• EURJPY will need to cooperate and move lower for EUR to have any realistic chance of breaking 1.2500 today.
EURGBP
• With EURUSD holding 1.2550 and GBPUSD falling aggressively EURGBP has powered up.
• Look for support off the 60min 20ma when it crosses the 60min 50ma.
• A retracement is needed so be patient.
• EURGBP is proving to be hard to hard to trade, so only take 20 to 30 pip targets at the moment.
Thanks
Dan
GOLD, AUDUSD , USDCAD - Monday 2nd March
GOLD:
• After a steady start and building up to the weekly pivot we failed to break and a lot of you guys managed to bank 50% or the full position.
• On the hourly chart it does look like we have setup a higher low and could possibly come back to retest the 60 minute 20 MA
• The 15 minute does look like we want to retest the monthly pivot, if we see this break then we could see Gold retesting the previous lows I would be very cautious at this point and wait for a clear setup.
AUDUSD
• As per notes earlier we retested the 60 minute 20 ma before a small 40 pip drop back to the lows. We have failed to break through and we will now need a move back into the averages before we can play this again.
• 15 minute chart could be setting up for a small play with a tight stop but do wait for the trigger as this is not a break out play purely resistance on the 15 minute 20 MA
USDCAD
• Great break on USDCAD through the 1.2775 level which then rallied to 1.2900.
• Will be looking for further strong moves up after a retracement back onto our shorter term MA’s on the 15 minute charts.
James
New York Open - Monday 2nd March
Good afternoon all
Some personal spending numbers and core PCE out today so not trading until after the numbers. Be careful if you are in anything at 1:30
USDJPY –
• Failed to put a hole in the 97.00 level and now looking likely to move up a bit
• Still needs to break 97.00 for push lower or 98.00 for move higher
GBPJPY-
• Nice break on weekly pivot sees a little 150 pip move here with sterling weakness
• Has made new lows so possible of a further move lower
• Hard to steam in at this level and prefer to wait for retracement to 13800
EURJPY-
• Failed to take out previous lows so needing to break 122.00 for a push
• Very difficult to jump in here with EURUSD looking flat
Verdict-
Can’t touch any Yen pairs at the moment so not a promising session I was hoping for, sadly.
I have cut my EURJPY position but it looks like weak sterling may prevail, it’s just finding an entry point which I am stumped on at the moment.
Will keep you posted.
Zak
JPY Desk - Tuesday 3rd March
Good morning all, I hope you are well
USDJPY-
• After a consolidation period this pair looks set to continue it’s march
• Not one to get overly carried away with but a 30 pip risk from here on the break of .60 and a stop below the pivot at .30 could represent some valu
• Not looking for shorts here at al
GBPJPY-
• A nice break from WP to MP yesterday was good for a couple of hundred pips but now wedged between 60m 20&5
• Needs to break WP 60m 50 and 4hr 20 to advance furthe
• Wait for break up of 1380
• Not looking for shorts from her
EURJPY-
• Bounced perfectly off 4hr 50sma yesterday and now finds itself back above the averages so a move higher imminent
• It has moved quite a lot so going to be patient and wait for a few reds on 60m chart before contemplating a long position but definitely 60m 123 materia
• Again, not looking for short positions toda
Verdict……
Watching for sterling strength against USD and CHF to gauge the potential of a push through resistance for GBPJPY but 13800 is the level here if other 2 pairs look bid, which potentially they are for the time-being.
Also interested in small long position on UJ if it breaks 97.60 with a stop just behind the daily pivot.
Have a good morning
Zak
GOLD , AUDUSD, USDCAD - Tuesday 3rd March
Morning All
Gold:
• 4hourly 20 MA has now been broken and we are $28 dollars from the 4hrly 50 MA.
• 1 Hourly chart is oversold and I would like to see increased buying pressure back into the MA’s
• 15 minute, look for resistance on the hourly 20 MA around 933, look for triggers but if we see the 60 minute 20 ma being broken look for a 123 back up to the MP.
• Remember money management as after yesterday’s falls on indices we could see a bounce any time soon although sentiment is weak.
AUDUSD
• AUD Interest rate raised against market trend by 0.25% to 3.25%
• This news caused a rally back up to the 0.6450 level and we could see further rises as more investors seek a better return on their money.
• I will be looking for a retracement onto the 4hourly 20 MA to see if we can find some support around these levels and then make a move back up towards the 0.65 level and the MP.
USDCAD
• After retesting the daily chart highs of 1.2950 the Cad does now finally look ready for a retracement before retesting these levels.
• We have broken back through the 60 Min 20 MA and will now be looking for a break of 1.2830 to see us moving back down to the 4 hourly 20 MA
• This looks like it might be a good potential.
James