Forecast and levels for AUD - page 8

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.13 14:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-09-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged down 0.1 percent in July and moved up 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in August."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.14 06:49

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-09-14 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 29.3K
  • forecast data is 17.5K
  • actual data is 54.2K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 54,200 to 12,269,000. Full-time employment increased 40,100 to 8,392,300 and part-time employment increased 14,100 to 3,876,700."
  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.19 10:40

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian House Price Index and range price movement 

2017-09-19 02:30 GMT | [AUD - HPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - HPI] = Change in the selling price of homes in the nation's 8 state capitals. 

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From official report :

  • "The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 1.9% in the June quarter 2017. The index rose 10.2% through the year to the June quarter 2017."
  • "The capital city residential property price indexes rose in Sydney (+2.3%), Melbourne (+3.0%), Brisbane (+0.6%), Adelaide (+0.8%), Canberra (+1.3%) and Hobart (+1.8%) and fell in Perth (-0.8%) and Darwin (-1.4%)."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian House Price Index news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download).
Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 19:19

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "All that probably means is that the “USD” side of AUD/USD will continue to drive. There are plenty of heavyweight US economic releases on the sked, including a second look at second-quarter Gross Domestic Product. We’ll also hear from Fed Chair Janet Yellen again. She’s down to speak on Tuesday. While the pair may very well move on any of the above, it’s tough to spot anything likely to break the current, well-entrenched trading pattern. So, yet another neutral call it has to be."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.02 16:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI

2017-10-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 58.8
  • forecast data is 57.9
  • actual data is 60.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September, and theoverall economy grew for the 100th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latestManufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The September PMI® registered 60.8 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the August reading of 58.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 64.6 percent, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from the August reading of 60.3 percent."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.03 07:39

AUD/USD - intra-day bearish breakdown; 0.7791 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is far below Ichimoku cloud for the 0.7791 support level to be testing for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "One-week implied volatility is at a relatively subdued level of 7.85%, suggesting we will see limited price movement over the course of the next few days. There is of course room for a surprise with tomorrow’s events but the market isn’t anticipating anything which will shake things up too much. Of interest, is the confluence between the projected one-week range-low of 7729 and solid support in the same area as far back as August 2016. With there being good confluence between projected price movement and support it appears likely we will see a hold of support should AUDUSD trade down to that point, at least on any initial test."
  • "Looking higher, there isn’t any particular alignment between resistance and price levels. Giving the path of least resistance in the near-term (lower) it may be difficult for aussie to exceed the projected range-high of 7899 with conviction."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate news events


Chart was made on MT4 using 5 day Breakout - indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.05 08:28

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-10-05 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is -0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

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From official report :

  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.6% in August 2017. This follows a fall of 0.2% in July 2017 and a rise of 0.2% in June 2017."
  • "Revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates are due to the concurrent methodology for deriving seasonal factors. For information on seasonal adjustment and trend estimation please refer to the explanatory notes of this publication."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 17:02

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "So it’s a bearish call again this week, even if there’s no obvious reason for the current downward trend to accelerate markedly. It might also be worth keeping a weather eye out for RBA commentary. It seems that that does the Australian Dollar very little good right now."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.17 10:07

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-10-17 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "At the meeting, the bank kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged at the record low 1.50 percent, as expected. The interest rate has been at this level since September 2016. The bank had reduced the rate by 25-basis points each in August and May last year."
  • "Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.19 08:45

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-10-19 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 53.0K
  • forecast data is 14.1K
  • actual data is 19.8K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased 19,800 to 12,290,200. Full-time employment increased 6,100 to 8,398,200 and part-time employment increased 13,700 to 3,892,000."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.5%."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Employment Change  news event 


==========

The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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