Forecast and levels for AUD - page 5

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.04 08:35

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia's Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-07-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 1.0%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.3% in May 2017. This follows a rise of 0.3% in April 2017 and a rise of 0.3% in March 2017."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6% in May 2017. This follows a rise of 1.0% in April 2017 and a fall of 0.1% in March 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia's Retail Sales news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.04 09:05

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and range price movement 

2017-07-04 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

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From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate news event

(Brainwashing trading system chart)



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.06 09:05

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia's Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-07-06 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 0.09B
  • forecast data is 1.00B
  • actual data is 2.47B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

==========

From official report :

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,956m in May 2017, a decrease of $363m on the surplus in April 2017."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,471m in May 2017, an increase of $2,381m on the surplus in April 2017."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia's Trade Balance news event 



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 16:51

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "Economic numbers are also due out of China and here risks seem a little asymmetric- the Aussie may not rise much on strong data, but it has shown a recent propensity to slide on disappointments. There’s reason for this. The RBA has often worried aloud that Chinese demand for Australian raw materials may moderate. And the Australian government said just last week that the price of iron ore will be back below US$50/tonne next year as China’s steelmakers takes less of this key Australian export. Signs that any of these worries are justified tend to spook the currency. We will also here fulsomely from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. If she sticks to her upbeat tone on the US economy then there could be pressure on AUD/USD."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.11 07:07

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NAB Business Confidence and range price movement 

2017-07-11 02:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry. 

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Business confidence in Australia saw a marginal improvement in June, the latest survey from the National Australia Bank revealed on Tuesday with an index score of +9."
  • "That's up from +8 in May, and it moves further into positive territory and the realm of optimism."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by NAB Business Confidence news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.14 14:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): Retail Sales

2017-07-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From CNBC article :

  • "The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales fell 0.2 percent last month, weighed down by declines in receipts at service stations, clothing stores and supermarkets. Americans also cut back on spending at restaurants and bars, as well as on hobbies."
  • "May's retail sales were revised to show a 0.1 percent dip instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent drop. Retail sales rose 2.8 percent year-on-year in June."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events


==========

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events

Retail Sales news event

=============

All the charts were made using Metatrader 5 with Brainwashing trading system:

Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.16 10:14

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "On balance, this means the BOJ may need to resort to heavier artillery. Recently disappointing economic news-flow may have defused the need an immediate shake-up of the policy mix, deflating the risk-on swell a bit dialing back upward pressure on bond yields. Signaling the clear prospect of stimulus expansion seems necessary however. In fact, a status-quo announcement may well result in unhelpful Yen gains."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.18 06:58

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-07-18 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

  • past data is n/a
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

==========

From abc article :

  • "The Reserve Bank is continuing its campaign to soften up highly leveraged borrowers for eventual interest rate rises after a long period at record low levels. The central bank is now busy estimating what a "neutral" interest rate might look like as the Australian economy continues to show patchy signs of recovery."
  • "A number of central banks had become more positive about domestic economic conditions, and financial market pricing suggested that there had been upward revisions to the expected path of future monetary policy."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.20 08:37

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-07-20 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 38.0K
  • forecast data is 14.4K
  • actual data is 14.0K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased 14,000 to 12,166,900. Full-time employment increased 62,000 to 8,356,000 and part-time employment decreased 48,000 to 3,810,800."
  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%, following a revised May 2017 estimate."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 12:04

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The latest set of RBA policy meeting minutes was released last week, before Debelle spoke. It saw markets wondering whether the OCR might just be going up a little sooner than they thought. Talk of a 3.5% neutral rate seemed to some to imply that so loose an OCR could not last much longer. However, the RBA seems very keen to disabuse them."


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