Forecast and levels for AUD - page 7

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.15 08:10

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-08-15 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board have noted the continued improvement of global economic conditions, minutes from the bank's August 1 meeting revealed on Tuesday. At the meeting, the central bank decided to leave its key interest rate unchanged at a record low 1.50 percent for the eleventh consecutive meeting."
  • "Taking account of the available information and the need to balance the risks associated with high household debt in a low-inflation environment, the board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.16 07:23

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Labour Price Index and range price movement 

2017-08-15 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses. 

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From official report :

  • "The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2017. This continues the subdued rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last two years."
  • "The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 1.9% through the year to the June quarter 2017. This historically low level of growth for both series has been recorded for the last four quarters."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Labour Price Index news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.17 10:00

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-08-17 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 20.0K
  • forecast data is 19.8K
  • actual data is 27.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 27,900 to 12,201,400. Full-time employment decreased 20,300 to 8,342,300 and part-time employment increased 48,200 to 3,859,100."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.6%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.17 10:05

AUD/USD - weekly bullish reversal to be started; 0.8066 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bear market rally to crossing 200-SMA bullish reversal level to above together with ascending triangle pattern with 0.8066 resistance level for the bullish reversal, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels near bullish reversal.


  • "The Australian Dollar shot sharply higher, posting the largest gain in five months against its US counterpart following the release of minutes from July’s FOMC meeting. Overall positioning hints that the rising trend established from May/June lows may be starting to resume."
  • "From here, a daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7979 opens the door for a test of the 0.8066-87 area (July 27 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7913 clears the way for another challenge of the 0.7784-0.7821 area (38.2% Fib retracement, trend line)."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.23 07:22

AUD/USD - ranging for direction (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is located within 100-SMA/200-SMA levels waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.


  • "The Australian Dollar has struggled to build upside momentum against its US counterpart since bouncing from rising trend support set from May/June lows. Prices seemingly completed a bullish Flag continuation pattern but have been unable even to retest the prior swing high, much less to overcome it."
  • "Resistance is at 0.7979, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door to challenge the 0.8066-87 area (July 27 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a turn below trend line support, now at 0.7859, exposes the 0.7784-0.7805 zone (38.2% Fib retracement, August 15 low) anew."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.26 08:37

Weekly AUD/USD Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

The Australian dollar stabilized on high ground, consolidating previous gains. What’s next? Australian capital expenditure and Chinese data stand out in a busier week.


  1. Building Approvals: Wednesday, 1:30. A rise of 10.9% in June will probably be followed by a drop now.
  2. Construction Work Done: Wednesday, 1:30. We will now receive the data for Q2.
  3. HIA New Home Sales: Thursday, 1:00. A rise could be seen now.
  4. Chinese official Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:00. A score of 51.4 points was seen in July, within the recent ranges.
  5. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 1:30. A rise of 0.3% was seen in Q1 2017, within early expectations.
  6. Private Sector Credit: Thursday, 1:30. Growth accelerated to 0.6% in June, after slower months beforehand.
  7. AIG Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 23:30. The manufacturing sector continues growing nicely according to the Australian Industry Group, with a score of 56 in July, the highest since April.
  8. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:45. The Caixin PMI is already an independent measure of the manufacturing sector of Australia’s No. 1 trading partner and tends to have a significant impact on the Aussie. In July, the figure beat expectations and reached 51.1 points. However, this still reflects slower growth than in past years.
  9. Commodity Prices: Friday, 6:30. A growth rate of 17.1% was seen in July, below 23.7% that was seen beforehand.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.30 09:48

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and range price movement 

2017-08-30 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is 11.7%
  • forecast data is -5.4%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

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From official report :

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.7% in July and has risen for three months."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 1.7% in July following a rise of 11.7% in the previous month."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Building Approvals news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.03 10:29

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "Investors can also look forward to news of the Australian current account position, job advertisements and service-sector performance, all of which have the potential to move the market. But the overall backdrop for the currency is one of at least relative investor support – even at record lows Aussie yields are attractive – countered by rising RBA watchfulness of the currency level. None of this is likely to change this week so, while AUD/USD may be in for a more volatile ride, the basic backdrop seems set to endure. That’s why I am making a neutral call yet again."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.05 07:37

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and range price movement 

2017-09-05 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

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From sbs article :

  • "The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent and repeated its concern that an appreciating Australian dollar could slow economic growth. RBA governor Philip Lowe said a higher exchange rate is weighing on the outlook for economic output and employment, and appreciation would likely result in a slower pick up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.""The Australian dollar dipped in the minutes following the RBA's rates announcement to 79.5 US cents, though recovered to be trading at 79.62 US cents at 1500 AEST."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.07 07:27

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-09-07 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 0.89B
  • forecast data is 0.93B
  • actual data is 0.46B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

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From official report :

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $768m in July 2017, a decrease of $250m on the surplus in June 2017."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $460m in July 2017, a decrease of $428m on the surplus in June 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event 


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